The War in the Ukraine

We don't even know what block f-16s they are getting(I pray to God it's not the ones with pulse doppler radars) and based on the number they are getting su-30, su-27s,, mig-29s, mig-31bms, su-35s and su-57s will be sufficient enough and hope the war is not long enough that su75s start getting used. There are also missile or drone strikes that can happen to these aircrafts and can't use them on NATO airfields since no NATO member wants to get involved in the war.

Ukraine passed new mandates of getting students into the war, females with medical backgrounds can't leave the country, requesting Ukrainians outside of Ukraine to get extradited back to their country to get mobilized and get lucky to receive 100 tanks every few months or so from new package deals compared to Russia pumping out 100 tanks a month and having nearly 300k Russians sign for military contracts this year alone with a big war going on. I am assuming the losses for russia is alot smaller compared to ukraine if they got that many Russians wanting to sign military contracts.

At this point there is no need to sign a ceasefire, I probably wouldn't either until Kiev and Odessa are captured.

anzha said:

If the Ukrainians are so fractured and have terrible tactics, why isn't Russia exactly crushing the Ukrainians again? I mean, the Ukrainians have pushed past Robotyne and nearing Verbove. Today, they pushed into Optyne: russian bloggers stating the Ukrainian took it all...which I would be surprised about.

This is the perfect weather for the Russians to roll out that massive - ahem - tank army and crush that fractured Ukrainian army. Yet, they do not. I've come around to the idea that Russian cannot. The attack on the Lugansk front feels far, far more like an attempt to relieve pressure on the Zaporizhia front.

A more general question for the people in the thread: when do we think we will be able to tell the war is in the end game? I mean prior to the diplomats publicly sitting a table. A Ukrainian flag over Sevastopol doesn't count either as the war would definitely be over at that point. A Russian one over Kiev would be the same equivalent, so no calling that. So, what sign - earlier than the blatant ones - would show the war is nearing the end?

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Those weren't my opinions, I was just summarising what the merc said. Much of what he said came across as very arrogant to me, like most American ex-servicemen. The Afghan Mujahideen were very fractured during the Afghan-Soviet war but kept a relatively united front. Once the Soviets left they splintered and spent as much time fighting each other as they did the

As to why the Russians haven't rolled over the Ukrainians, the answer is similar to why they haven't Kinzhaled the Ukrainian parliament while it's in session or taken out critical infrastructure like powerplants. It's a political decision rather than a military incapability.

anzha said:

A more general question for the people in the thread: when do we think we will be able to tell the war is in the end game? I mean prior to the diplomats publicly sitting a table. A Ukrainian flag over Sevastopol doesn't count either as the war would definitely be over at that point. A Russian one over Kiev would be the same equivalent, so no calling that. So, what sign - earlier than the blatant ones - would show the war is nearing the end?

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After both sides have pushed back and forth for many times, realizing nothing on the ground can be gained, getting a line of control stablized. That is when they will sit down and talk.

From 2020 to first half of 2023 is the Russian pushing. The current Ukrainian offensive is the Ukrainian push. This is the first round. Comparing to Korean war, PVA and US fought between Oct 1950 and June 1951 back and forth around the Han river before both realizing that nothing more can be gained, the negotiation lasted for two years before cease fire. Korean war run much faster than Russo-Ukrainian war though, during that 8 months, both sides have experienced more than twice of retreat of their ealier gains. So we can expect the time span doubled or trippled in Ukrain.

Another consideration is the strategic objectives. The example is Sino-Vietnamese war in the 1980s. China kept that war going for 10 years until 1. Soviet nomolized relationship with PRC. 2. Soviet pulled out of Afgahanistan. 3. Vietnam agreed to pull out of Combodia. 4. China prevented a military treaty between Vietnam and USSR from being materialized (a document secretly signed just before China invaded Vietnam in 1978).

If Russia is doing something like this, the war can last untill major geopolitical landscape changed, 10 years parhaps untill either China/Russia or EU/US camps backdown. This is the likely alternative IMO, because Putin would not have committed Russia's existence to this war without China's commitment of backing for decades. Remember when China attacked Vietnam, China had the commitment of US (economic cooperation and market access etc), Deng Xiaoping went to Washington and had an fanfair party, made speeches of teaching little friend a lesson, then came home and started the war. Putin and Xi did the same thing by saying "back to back" and "unlimited".

AFU T-64BV throws its turret. This is in the same general area as the Challenger getting knocked out, which is just north of Urozhayne.


AFU APCs getting knocked out in the same area.



Lancet takes out another hidden howitzer.


Zaporizhia direction, the road of death.


More than 120 AFU vehicles documented destroyed in the assault of Rabotino which is for a village comparable to a suburban subdivision.


Incendiaries fired from a Grad over a target area seen from the Ukrainian view point.


AFU shelter and vehicle taken out by the 147th Regiment of the 106th Guards VDV Division near Artyomovsk.


AFU APC appears heavily damaged after it got hit by an FPV drone.

Footage of a Ukrainian Kirpi armored vehicle hitting a mine has been published. This episode of the battle took place in the area of the village of Novomayorskoye. After the armored vehicle was damaged, the soldiers who got out of it came under Russian artillery fire.

The Mi-28 helicopter destroys the UJ-22 Airborne UAV of Ukraine. Footage of a Russian Mi-28 helicopter pursuing a Ukrainian UJ-22 Airborne UAV. The UJ-22 Airborne drone is produced by the Ukrainian company Ukrjet and reaches speeds of up to 160 km/h, we have information about it on our channel. As a result of a short air battle, the Ukrainian UJ-22 Airborne UAV was destroyed by a 30 mm 2A42 automatic cannon mounted on a Mi-28 helicopter.

The Russian Tunguska-M1 air defense system shoots down a Ukrainian Fury UAV. Reportedly, a 2K22M1 air defense missile system shot down a Ukrainian Fury UAV. The Fury UAV has a range of up to 50 km and reaches speeds of up to 130 km/h.

Ka-52 takes out tank hidden in the bushes with Vikhr missile. Courtesy of the Orthodox Ka-52.


Mastiff gets taken out by Russian artillery.


FPV drone via Beaver takes out a Bradley.


BMP taken out by Lancet.


Ukrainian group hit during rotation by artillery.


Ukrainian troop column advancing gets hit by accurate 82mm mortar fire.


Destroyed Spartan.


AFU communication and EW post in Kherson gets hit by an ATGM.


AFU communication post in Sumy region gets hit by ATGM.


Lancet takes out an AFU Grad despite trying to hide in the forest.

Lancet drone launch group eliminated with precision strike. This is second Lancet team eliminated in less than a week.

Soldier30 said:

Footage of a Ukrainian Kirpi armored vehicle hitting a mine has been published. This episode of the battle took place in the area of the village of Novomayorskoye. After the armored vehicle was damaged, the soldiers who got out of it came under Russian artillery fire.

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Interesting, it doesnt look like it hit antitank mines but multiple antipersonnal mines that have destroyed his tires. The new airless tires tested on multiple rig could probably prevent or at least lower the risk of that type of failure.