Holy shit, crazy if true. HUMINT again or SIGINT exposed due to the recent counterattack?
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The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Holy shit, crazy if true. HUMINT again or SIGINT exposed due to the recent counterattack?
This is called getting high on your own supply. In reality Ukraine really did conduct a successful counterattack, captured two to four towns, established a critical bridgehead, and repulsed Russian attempts to defeat the counterattack. Russian forces in Northern Kherson oblast risk being encircled and cut off with the river at their backs.
In recent days Ukraine has launched a number of successful counterattacks all across the front. They have also started shelling Donetsk with impunity. The whole "Ukraine is collapsing" euphoria of the Russia supporters is falling apart.
Why not show some photographic evidence?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Sorry, but that’s not how these things work.
As they so succinctly put it in the military, shit only rolls downhill.
Canada, being a higher skin colour status American ally, gets to roll their shit downhill to lower skin colour American ally South Korea.
Thus Canada sends 20k probably close to or even past their use-by date shells to Ukraine and gets 100% of the kudos for their ‘selfless sacrifice’ while SK is directed to sell 100k of their own new shells that they paid full price on at a significant discount to the Canadians and gets zero freedom points.
I would not be surprised if Canada doesn’t end up making a net profit on this in the end.
Its delusional if you think this attack, which must somehow advance 50km across open field could even remotely succeed. Russians have the sky and will have an open season on Ukrainian columns. Are you expecting the Ukrainians to crawl those 50 km through the bushes?
I know you said it jokingly, but it's good to clarify some points.
I bring this up to try to spark a discussion about Ukraine's offensive against Kherson. Despite the data being old, what is known to be updated is that the Russians are taking more equipment there, while Ukraine formed the 60th Mechanized Brigade to the North, however, considering this picture on the map, what we have in terms of of capacity is:
AFU: Nine Brigades in all, of which:
Three Mechanized Brigades. The 28th and 14th are Brigades that have been in existence for a while, the 60th was formed with reservists, volunteers and other types of troops. Their composition is basically the same, three Mechanized Battalions and one Tank Battalion. The allocation of tanks ranges from 30-40, depending on the organization, in addition to the mechanized troops being supported by BMP and MT-LB vehicles. The 60th, however, is formed by T-72M1 and M113; and
The other Brigades are basically light troops, including the 80th Air Assault Brigade, ternary and supported by BTR-80 vehicles.
RuAF: Six Brigades on the lines of contact, basically Mechanized and Armored troops. Also in reserve are troops stationed in the Crimea, part of the 20th and 7th Divisions.
In practical terms, on the lines of contact, the Ukrainians have a slight advantage of three Brigades. Why do I say be slight advantage? Simply because of the shock force needed in an offensive. Here the Ukrainians, in practical terms, have a number between 90-120 Tanks at best. However, the biggest problem with this is the size of the front, which goes from Stanislav to Zolota Balka, which corresponds to 194 km of front. Of course, the Ukrainians wouldn't make a general advance on all fronts, not least because they don't have enough troops to carry out this type of operation, so, based on that, I would bet that a Ukrainian offensive would be based on two points, on one pincer movement, Stanislav and Snihurivka.
Stanislav-Snihurivka
This front line seems logical to me for two reasons: first, they are important tactical geographic points, due to the location, supply and route of highways in the region. As Ukrainian troops are much more on wheels than on tracks, this is important for a quick advance. So, dividing the T.O into Stanislav and Snihurivka, we have two considerations:
Stanislav would basically be two Brigades, one Mechanized and the other Naval Infantry, in addition to a Battalion, attacking the region. In this case, we can highlight that the Ukrainians could have around 40 Combat Cars and other light vehicles, in opposition to two Brigades and an AFU Regiment, highlighting here a Spetnaz Brigade. In this part we have a serious problem to know what the composition of these troops is like, because there are few details on the composition of these troops on the internet, so I take other troops into consideration. At this point, in terms of shock, the Ukrainians would have around 40 tanks, against approximately 34 to 47 tanks. Here we already see a huge problem for the AFU in terms of shock power, as it is numerically equal with the defender, who already has the advantage of defending himself.
Snihurivka have a slight numerical advantage, but a huge disadvantage to mechanized and armored troops. In this case, the AFU only has the 14th Mechanized Brigade, with something around 40 Combat Cars. The 80th does not have tanks in its composition, nor vehicles under tracks, only vehicles under wheels. They would basically face two armored troops, which are the 34th and 205th Motorized Brigades, of different conception than we think. In Russia, motorized troops are troops that use BTR's or MT-LB's, different from our concept here regarding trucks or even Western 4x4 vehicles. Both are expected to supply 34 T-72B3 or T-73B3M and 124 MT-LB's, in addition to BTR-82A and BTR-80 as support vehicles. In this case, the Ukrainian advantage plummets, in a configuration of 40 tanks against 68 tanks, in addition to armored vehicles with the same protection and equivalent armament as the AFU's BTR-80s.
Although I didn't mention this, there are still 7 BTG's in the region, reinforcing each of these brigades, which can be considered 70 more tanks, in addition to the forecast of organic tanks from the Russian Brigades, which can increase the number for 172 tanks against approximately 80 tanks on that specific front.
Another point that we cannot forget is the northern front, between Velyka Oleksandrivka and Zolota Balka.
Velyka Oleksandrivka-Zolota Balka
Here, being shorter, we can unify these fronts well, considering the AFU forces consisting of Two Brigades, the 60th and 21st Brigade of the National Guard. From what I could see, tanks and armored vehicles on tracks only the 60th, as the 21st has 4x4 vehicles and, at most, reinforcement of BTR-80 and BTR-4. On the Russian side, we have the 126th Coast Protection Brigade and the 11th Air Assault Brigade. By the way, the 126th had its losses replaced during the Kherson campaign, having lost about 20 T-72B3s in that offensive, in fact, being the Brigade that took the city itself. The 11th, in its composition, has a company of tanks. Therefore, we could summarize the shock troops on both sides between 40 AFU VBC's and 47 RuF VBC's. Once again, it is an extremely similar number and extremely dangerous for those who are attacking.
Leaving the comparison between forces on the ground, focusing in general, we can conclude that the AFU has a slight numerical advantage in terms of Infantry, but equal or inferior value in terms of armored vehicles, especially tanks. This is a huge problem here, as the Russians are reported to have mined some areas to funnel AFU troops into some trenches around the entire line. But this, we're just talking about the contact lines, I'll get into the merits of reservations later.
Another problem for the AFU is the enormous inferiority in terms of anti-aircraft systems and, mainly, ground-to-ground artillery. The Russians have at least two Artillery Brigades in the region, not to mention the organic ones, while the AFU only has the organic ones. This is noticeable with the amount of places bombed by the Russians at the same time and the one that the Ukrainians do, which is focused on two points, near Kherson and on Velyka Oleksandrivka, while the Russians bomb practically all the lines and also Mykolaiv.
Reservations
This is where the sow starts to twist her tail. The AFU has three Brigades as "reserves", all light, being the 124th and 123rd Territorial Defense Brigades and 35th Marine Brigade. They are at most supported by BTR's vehicles, they do not have combat vehicles in their composition. I saw that there are "specialists" who consider the troops in Odessa, especially the 5th, as Offensive Reserve Brigades. This is nonsense at absurd levels, as the Russians have a Division in Transnistria, which corresponds to a Reinforced Brigade and two Regiments, in addition to two Brigades of troops from Transnistria itself. If they decide to move the 5th from Odessa to Mykolaiv, there will only be three Brigades left in Odessa, which are all light. In fact, in Odessa itself, what is present is the 11th Brigade of the National Guard - which is as light as the 122nd, a Brigade focused on what we would consider GLO - and the 1st Brigade of Naval Infantry. The 122nd was sent to the border with Transnistria, forming defensive positions in the region.
For the Russians, things are quite different. What we have confirmed are the 255th and 20th Motorized Guard Regiments, reinforced with 1 BTG each, totaling an estimated 64-96 tanks, along with the 7th Guard Air Assault Division. In addition, the remainder of the 20th Motorized Guard Division was being deployed to the region.
In terms of reserve, the RuF has a frightening advantage, which allows it to carry out a counter-offensive and even an offensive operation around Mykolaiv.
Air Power and Anti-Air Defense
This for me is the decisive point. The Russians not only have an advantage in the air scenario, but also in the ground-to-air scenario, establishing complete air supremacy in the region. Earlier this month, it is said that the AFU tried to carry out an offensive in Pravdyne and the result would have been the shooting down of 5 AFU aircraft, which would be four attackers (Su-25 and Su-24) and one Su-27. , confirmation, has two Su-25 and Su-27. The Ukrainians also fired Tochka-U at Kherson, but it was reported to have been intercepted by Kherson-based S-300 systems. As for the AFU's AAe, it seems to me to be very poor or perhaps non-existent, as the Russians reported shooting down two S-300 systems in Mykolaiv earlier this month and, so far, there has not been a single case of interception of cruise missiles attacking Mykolaiv, which demonstrates the lack of medium and long-range anti-aircraft systems in the region. The Russians recently destroyed a C2 and Intelligence building inside Mykolaiv, with more than 20 dead, according to local sources.
My conclusion
There is no point in the AFU launching a broad offensive in the region, it would be a tremendous shot in the foot. They are at no advantage in proportion to the lines of contact and are at a distinct disadvantage if the Russians deploy troops in the Reserve, which could cause the entire line to collapse.
From what I can see from the movement of both forces, the Russians are deploying more armored troops in the Central (Snihurivka) and North (Velyka Oleksandrivka) region, which in my opinion demonstrates Russian awareness of the AFU's intentions and the planning of a counterattack in the central part, using armored troops in reserve and the development of a clear Oblique Order to the Center and North, with AFU troops in these regions already at a disadvantage still on the 22nd, which should be greater today with the dispatch of more troops to the North.
The terrain at Kherson, with the exception of the length of the Inhulets River, is pure open country, which would be perfect for VBC's T-72B3, which has fire control systems far superior to the T-64BM and T-72M1, especially the these last. The last two mentioned still have the old TPN-1-TPV and TPD-2-49 fire control systems, and the T-64M Bulat (which equips the 14th Armored Brigade) is an upgrade of the fire from the T-72A, which was bad enough. It has passive night vision mode and active IR vision, with those huge IR flashlights on the left side of the turret, while the T-72B3 already has first generation IR systems and the third generation T-72B3M. In addition, the 3BM42 Mango can fire most dangerously, while the T-72B3 and B3M can fire the 3BM60 and Reflects missiles, extending their engagement range. It is basically a reissue of Desert Storm, in which ammunition and fire control systems made the difference in the confrontation between tanks in the region.
But in itself this is not the advantage for the AFU, but for aviation, in addition to artillery, as we saw in the destruction of about two AFU tank battalions in the Zaporizhzhia region by artillery and tanks.
Apparently, the Russians can wait for this offensive, cede some ground and initiate an Oblique Order through Snihurivka, cutting the front in two and creating a pocket in the region between Mykolaiv and Kherson, being able to lock four to six AFU Brigades in the region.
For the AFU, the only way out is to take advantage of the relatively equal numbers and use these Brigades to defend Mykolaiv, which could absurdly delay a possible offensive in Odessa.
At that moment, the 28th and 14th Mechanized Brigades - possibly the 80th as well - take the offensive in an attempt to Wedge. I just didn't understand why they chose Davyrid Brid, which doesn't make sense to me for that region to be a target of attack and not Snihurivka. There is a road that connects Snihurivka and Velyka Oleksandrivka in this village, but the Russians already have lines of communication behind these points, so I don't quite understand. With the strength of two or three brigades, they could even take Snihurivka and establish a headache for the Russians in the region.
What the media now link is that the "Ukrainian counterattack on Kherson was effective as the Russians were now obliged to defend themselves in the region", but there has not been a single Russian offensive in the Mykolaiv region since April, when they took Stanislav and Oleksandrivka. . Since then, they have remained on the defensive and reinforced the troops, while more were on the way. Now the T-80BV is heading to the troops in Mykolaiv and the T-62M looks like they are heading to the DPR, which has lost a good number of tanks, which is nothing new as the defenses the DPR faces in the Donbass, especially in the Donetsk region, are the most difficult in the whole of Ukraine.
Even more about Kherson:
I saw a video of some reserve soldiers, Europeans and Americans, who consider the offensive a serious mistake, because even if the AFU pushes the Russians back and forms a Wedge between the South and North defenses, there are two problems there:
The first is logistics, it is not known - in fact it is very doubtful - about the ability of the AFU to deliver enough logistics in the region to continue an offensive; and
Even if the 28th and 14th succeed - which so far is anyone's guess - with the 80th in reserve, the 60th in the north and the troops in the south, especially the Territorial Defense Brigades, are unable to keep the Russians occupied, which a tactical retreat by the RuAF may end up being able to provide a pincer movement on the offensive lines of communication. This type of movement is speculated to have taken place in the Kharkiv region, in the city of Slobozhanske, where the AFU managed to reach Lyptsi, but two BTG's would have maneuvered and enveloped the troops in Slobozhanske, causing AFU troops to retreat to Borshchova and not trying anymore storm that city.
To the south, the 60th is facing two Detachable Combined Arms Brigades, with the 126th holding the 60th while the other makes one of the moves to complete the pincer. To the south, the Russians have even more troops to be able to complete this type of maneuver, without removing the troops that are 10 km from Kherson, in defensive positions.
I saw a video of some reserve soldiers, Europeans and Americans, who consider the offensive a serious mistake, because even if the AFU pushes the Russians back and forms a Wedge between the South and North defenses, there are two problems there:
The first is logistics, it is not known - in fact it is very doubtful - about the ability of the AFU to deliver enough logistics in the region to continue an offensive; and
Even if the 28th and 14th succeed - which so far is anyone's guess - with the 80th in reserve, the 60th in the north and the troops in the south, especially the Territorial Defense Brigades, are unable to keep the Russians occupied, which a tactical retreat by the RuAF may end up being able to provide a pincer movement on the offensive lines of communication. This type of movement is speculated to have taken place in the Kharkiv region, in the city of Slobozhanske, where the AFU managed to reach Lyptsi, but two BTG's would have maneuvered and enveloped the troops in Slobozhanske, causing AFU troops to retreat to Borshchova and not trying anymore storm that city.
To the south, the 60th is facing two Detachable Combined Arms Brigades, with the 126th holding the 60th while the other makes one of the moves to complete the pincer. To the south, the Russians have even more troops to be able to complete this type of maneuver, without removing the troops that are 10 km from Kherson, in defensive positions.
The Ukrainian military is doing the exact same thing the rebels in Syria did during the Aleppo offensives. Why would you conduct offensives in open terrain without air cover? Doesn’t make any type of sense. This goes with my theory that Kiev is more interested in eye catching click bait headlines than actual military results. These offensives are just a desperate attempt to raise soldiers morale because in the Donbas front Ukrainian resolve is starting to crack. Morale is in the toilet. So they are trying these brain dead propaganda offensives to show the Ukrainian military is still an effective fighting force. In the end they are hurting themselves.