The War in the Ukraine

Rettam Stacf said:

Have a dumb question. If Russia does not want Ukraine to benefit from the sales of grain but will not want to directly confront NATO escort assets, wouldn't it be easy for missile strike against port facilities while there is still quite a bit of time before the arrival of the convoy ?

Granted it will destroy the infrastructure which Russia has to rebuild once she gain control of the entire the Ukrainian Black Sea coastal area.

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Temstar said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531081378657361922

Ukrainian position overran in Kherson, Russian counter-counterattack?
Anyone familiar with Soviet AT guns? I'm guessing MT-12 100mm anti tank gun?

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anzha said:

Russian components! American components! All made in Taiwan China!

Snark can be fun, but let's make the post better than a low quality one here. I've been juggling a lot and away from the thread, but I have to say the level of analysis here has dropped. A few of the new users seem to have writing styles very similar to those who have, ahem, gone missing.

The Russians are definitely making progress in the Donbass. The ground is solid now and the strengths of the Russian army can be played to, at least until heavy rains start again. Progress is still slow, but much better than it has been for, well, since the initial bog down after the start of the war.

It will be interesting to see if Severodonetsk and its potential kessel come to fruition with the Ukrainian troops there annihilated or captured. It would be a big deal and a propaganda coup for the Russians to have finally done so. Much like the final fall of Mauripol when Azovstal finally surrendered. OTOH, if Severodonetsk became another fortress city like Kharkov or Mauripol, the fight could grind on there and tie down a lot of troops for some time.

That said, the progress is not bloodless. I can totally believe the T-62s being warmed up and transferred to the front. The losses are pretty huge for a campaign between what ought to be very disparate nations. The T-62s I am sure are being transferred to the DNR and LNR, but even so it would strongly imply the depths of the Russian war stocks are not as deep as often advertised. Someone here posted the youtube link for an analysis of how many tanks the Russians actually had in reserve. While I am sure it was more accurate than the tens of thousands often thrown around, I'm sure the Russians have more than 3k tanks in reserve. That said, I suspect it's at most 3x that, probably 2x, the numbers in the video. The fact the T-62s are showing up does actually support that hypothesis.

For a moment, let's delve into the Russian losses. I have absolutely no insight into the Ukrainian losses. It is a pity the Russians have locked down their media so much. Someone doing what Oryx does from the Russian POV for the Ukrainian losses would be invaluable. Too bad, so sad, just think of the info war support Russian could of had. Zelensky did say Ukraine was losing something like 100 soldiers/day in a press conference. That would put their KIA at 9,500 and their total casualties about 38,000.

That said, as of the time of writing this post, it appears the Russians have materially lost 36 BTG and 12 tank battalions since the start of the war. This is just equipment count of tanks, IFVs, APCs, etc. It does not mean the BTG are totally destroyed: just that amount of equipment has been. I am only counting the combat equipment instead of supply and support. I am not counting artillery. Assuming there were 130 Russian BTG at the start of the war, Russia has lost over 27%. Their APCs+IFVs lost tracks that number as well. The tank losses are - proportionately - higher: over 56% of the tanks in 130 BTG have been lost.

Russian KIA, using the number of destroyed vehicles as a benchmark, looks to be about 7,500 and that gives us a total casualties of around 30k. That doesn't - again restating - take into account losses from the logistics folks getting ambushed or infantry getting butchered by drones, artillery or otherwise. It always sucks for the infantry, no matter whose side you're on.

The 'destroyed' BTG are not entire units. Most of the time, the equipment losses would dip below a certain level and the Russians are smart enough to pull back the troops. For whatever their faults, the Russians are not the mustache swirling villains with machine guns behind their troops. There is only so much a human can take before they need to be cycled to the rear to recover. Additionally, the Ukrainians, no matter how effective they may be (or are not), they are not magically wiping out entire BTG in one blow and the Russians would cycle back the remaining unit members once the unit is below doctrinal combat effectiveness.

I want to reiterate these are guessimates. Better than a guess - there is some data supporting - but not a solid estimate: sources of data are suspect to say the least.

Prognostication! Prophecy is the least profitable profession, as has been said.

The Russians will continue to grind forward. The last of the Lugansk Oblast should fall in the next week or three. The DNR fronts will keep pushing forward as well. I half expect another northern assault by the Russians towards either Kharkov, Sumy or even Kiev before the end of summer.

The Ukrainians are going to continue to resist. I really can't emphasize enough it's not the West being willing to fight to the last Ukrainian as the Ukrainians are fiercely fighting for their homes. (scholz definitely doesn't want to fight to the last Ukrainian or even first one, for that matter) I doubt there will be a general collapse. However, I find it very possible, even probable, the Ukrainians will be unable to mount significant offensives. However, I could also see some major offensives if the Ukrainians have been conserving their armor

I am curious what is happening in the Kharkov offensive by the Ukrainians: did it totally peter out? I am also curious about the Kherson offensive reported. Not going well? Or not enough information? Or...?

That said, what happens in July or August will be interesting. If any side is going to crack, it will be then.

Remember to doubt everything: no one is telling the truth in this war. Even the side we may support is doing their best boratina impression. Don't repost stuff others have curated already and posted. It hasn't been a problem in a while, but remember to be respectful. We learn by disagreeing, accepting when we are wrong, and changing our stance to reflect reality.

Take everything I write with a grain of salt. It's worth as much as you paid for it and, even you paid nothing, you probably paid too much. I have been wrong before and will be again.

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BoraTas said:

It seems Ukraine's Kherson counterattack was concluded. The ISW says it was a limited success. If the ISW says a Ukrainian operation had limited success it means the said operation was an abject failure.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1531113531763982336

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South Korean broadcaster SBS, citing an unnamed high-ranking South Korean defence ministry official, said that the deal could involve up to 100,000 shells from South Korea's reserves, likely sold below market value.
"We are actively pursuing a plan to provide 100,000 rounds to Canada," the official told SBS.

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Temstar said:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

What the hell, below market value?

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plawolf said:

All this talk of cooking oil is off topic I’d say. The talk of NATO naval convoys has nothing to do with oil or food, but everything to do with Ukraine getting curbstomped in Donbas now that Russia stopped prancing around and is actually fighting this war like a war.

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