The War in the Ukraine

uring the investigation of the criminal case initiated by the investigation department of the Federal Security Service on June 23 under Article 279 of the Criminal Code on the fact of armed mutiny, it was established that its participants on June 24 ceased their actions directly aimed at committing the crime. In view of this and other circumstances relevant to the investigation, the investigators issued a resolution on June 27 to drop the criminal case," said the Public Relations Centre of the FSB of Russia.

Click to expand...

Correct me, if I wrong, but if a military unit shoot down a helicopter of they own country , on they way to the capital of the same country to take over the power from the central goverment then that is "armed mutiny"
Unless they received an official order to do it so on the chain of command of the given country.

For me it feels like a centraly organised, small team (maybe ten person ) "rocking the boat" excercise to uncover as many sleeping NATO and Captiol agent as possible.





Yeah, Putin is the top of the chain of command of the Russian Armed Forces. Wagner must be part of the same chain of command.

So , he can give command to anyone, and refusing to follow his orders is a criminal case.

and I read ten times the transcript of his speach, that in real time of danger would be used to give command to military units, and all that he did was just "urging the participants".

The relevant part of the speech :

As the President of Russia and Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do my utmost to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order, the lives, security, and freedom of its citizens.
Those who organized and prepared the military uprising, who raised arms against their comrades-in-arms, have betrayed Russia. And they will be held accountable for it. And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make the fatal and tragic, an irreversible mistake, and to make the only right choice - to stop participating in criminal actions.

Click to expand...

What is it ?

Tootensky said:

Yeah, but firing 10 thousand shells would require either a lot of guns, or a long prep time. Either way, it would make guns subject to counter battery fire, air strikes etc.. If you want to assault head first into well-prepared positions, you have to pay the price in blood.

Click to expand...

Do you remember the painfully slow penetration of Bakhmut ?

REason of that is the requirement of preparation.

And think a bit about your point : if the russians can do countar battery on the artirelly units cleaning the landing zones, then if ther 155 mm guns occupy them then they don't have spare time to kill the Bradleys and landing troops.

See ? to penetrate the defence line they need lot of artirelly, to supress / mop up the fire of the Russian 152 mm guns, and to clear the landing area. By definition they would need several times more gun and ammunition than the Russian side.


OR they have to prepare extreme losses regards of vehicles and manpower.

If we say the Capitol sent 100 bradley, and at least 15 % of them alredy lost, and say 30-40% of them participated in the war up to this point then the losses are 30-50%.
Means few km of adavancement require loss of third-hald of equip,ment.

Do the math, penetrating ten km of line with 30% of loss each km require 400 bradley, to land 100 of them on the other side of the 10 km zone. In meantime 300 will be lost, with similar ratio of personel.

And by the videos the tanks and IFVs are not occupied by doing advancement, but used up and blown up by evacuating the wounded units.


This is the end of story, unless the whole NATO start serious military production , to drown the Ukrainans in military equipment and ammunition then there is no chance for anything.

Anlsvrthng said:

This video is very sad.

Two main point :
1. no proper artirelly preparation. 155 mm shells making 5 meter wide and 1.8 meter deep crater .

Means it cleaning 5 meter diameter area of mines, and creating a safe dugout for the infantry.

Making a 1 km long safe passage with 155 mm shell requiring 10 000 shell launched from 5 km, creating an 80 meter wide safe zone.
Cost 8 million USD . Cheaper than to lost two Bradley and dozens of soldiers.
2. Rubbish training, th guys disembarked from the two damaged vahicle (most likelly) , and isntead to move on the established, safe zone - the tracks on the vehicles, they moved to the virgin , mined area .

Visibly they did it by instinct , means there is a lack of deeply rooted drills for this type of events.

MEans lack of proper training. And these are the assault teams.

Click to expand...

These guys are 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, they are supposed to be one of the best trained and best equipped units in AFU. You're not going to find more experience troops than this on their side other than any remaining veterans from 2014-2022 or 82nd Air Assault Brigade.

Is it normal to dismount from APCs by jumping? If the area was indeed walked through by other men, the jump might have triggered the mine more easily.

Marines of the Russian Pacific Fleet artillery ambush a Ukrainian column at Novodonetsk. A number of vehicles appear destroyed.


Also in Novodonetsk by said Marines, a destroyed and abandoned Oshkosh is examined.


Alligators on the hunt at Vremev Ledge.


Ukrainian shelter at Pyatihyatki gets shelled by the 429th Ossetian Regiment.

Broccoli said:

Russian paratroopers new BMD-4M and older BMD-2 knocked out.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673255797130686466

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673595561407021057

Strela was destroyed by HIMARS.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673086300247793665

Click to expand...

Second vid looks old

muddie said:

Also assuming the drone footage is from the Russians, also shows AFU deploying very little if any anti-air here given how clear these vids are.

Click to expand...

This video was actually released by 47th Mechanized Brigade's own official account, so likely the drone is Ukrainian. Their initial intention was probably to show the difficult conditions that they are under attacking Russian lines, so as to defend against any accusations that they're doing a poor job with all that NATO equipment. However very quickly pro-Ukrainians started criticizing the release of this video saying it will have a demoralizing effect and is bad opsec. So 47th Mechanized Brigade then deleted the video. But of course pro-Russians saw it have saved it in time and started spread it.

PopularScience said:

Maybe Bradley scared of anti-tank mine.

This 11 minute video is like a horror movie.

Click to expand...

Real life "Saving Private Ryan"
Very painful to watch

Anlsvrthng said:

And think a bit about your point : if the russians can do countar battery on the artirelly units cleaning the landing zones, then if ther 155 mm guns occupy them then they don't have spare time to kill the Bradleys and landing troops.

See ? to penetrate the defence line they need lot of artirelly, to supress / mop up the fire of the Russian 152 mm guns, and to clear the landing area. By definition they would need several times more gun and ammunition than the Russian side.

This is the end of story, unless the whole NATO start serious military production , to drown the Ukrainans in military equipment and ammunition then there is no chance for anything.

Click to expand...

You have good points about the high level of organization and resources needed to de-mine the front for the breakthrough operation.

Ukraine may not be up to it. I see very small numbers of de-mining vehicles, they would need masses of such kit. Also prior to this battle they have a severe ammunition shortage and lost ammo dumps to VKS interdiction in the months prior.

I know from studying the battle of Kursk that the German forces used a great many battle-hardened combat engineer battalions (every division had one, and there were also general-headquarters assets) to slowly de-mine each echelon of Soviet minefields. This could take half a day or even a day, and the Operation Zitadel was massively delayed by days. After they cleared the first line of Soviet defense, the engineers had to work on the second line. And the third.

But this was in 1943, and modern technology & techniques makes such operations magnitudes more dangerous. The Ukranian forces likely lack such a high level of engineering skill and assets, which contributed to the failure.

Posted this some time ago on another thread mentioning that these relatively not talked about systems are doing their work in Zaporozhye. Their efforts are bearing fruit. These systems can quickly create a minefield in front of the enemy path or in their supply lines.


Pantsyr shoots down a Storm Shadow.


Russian soldier gives favorable impressions of the Oshkosh based on the captured vehicles.


BTR-82A engaging Ukrainian DRGs in the Ukrainian beachead at the Antonov Bridge. It manages to destroy some Ukrainian assets and rescue beleaguered comrades.


Ukrainian column simultaneously being hit by artillery and Ka-52. This probably from the Russian Marines of the Far East, who not too long ago, have the same but opposite end of the experience in Ugledar.