The War in the Ukraine

tankphobia

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
Putin is still limited by domestic politics. West has not directly sent troops into Ukraine or directly attacked Russia proper, so how would full-war be justified to Russia domestic public? This "Western-backed mutiny" gives Putin the pretext he needs to end S.M.O.

Putin isn't held back by 'legislation', but by domestic public support for elevation to full-scale war. Absent direct NATO involvement or foreign attack on domestic borders (i.e., existential threat), there is no commensurate justification for full-scale war escalation. This "Western-backed mutiny" presents a credible threat to Moscow capital is enough pretext to end S.M.O.

I agree, this is exactly what is going to happen. Wagner will dissolve/incorporated to Army, and Putin is going to declare state-of-emergency, full-mobilization, all-out war using this Western-backed mutiny
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Not necessarily, Putin already has the support needed to actually declare war I believe, look at this recent poll.

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Support actually increased compare to earlier.

I think run of the mill Russians see that now Putin has put them in this position, there can be no future for Russia unless they win. I saw a video where Russians are interviewed, even sceptics are basically of the position it shouldn't have started, but we have to commit now or else Russia is doomed.

So I just do not get the rationale behind such a stunt if it was 5D chess move, since what has transpired will have already at a minimum greatly damaged trust between MoD/Putin and SMD due to the loss of Rostov to Wagner without firing a shot. No Russian officer will knowingly cripple their own careers to cosplay a coup.
 
W

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
gelgoog said:
Well, given that the Chechens went into Rostov, it is fair to assume that any areas of the front where they were providing reinforcement have been weakened. Supply has also likely been weakened, since Rostov is part of the backbone of Russian supplies for the Ukrainian campaign, which is probably the main reason why getting Rostov back into control seems to have been given the highest priority right now.
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I doubt that currently active Russian forces would actually leave their positions along the front to deal with this mutiny. It takes more than a day for supplies to be exhausted. What is actually surprising to me is why the Aerospace Forces haven't deployed much more forcefully and even all out to help crush this rebellion.
 
T

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Intrepid

Intrepid

Major
Weaasel said:
... What is actually surprising to me is why the Aerospace Forces haven't deployed much more forcefully and even all out to help crush this rebellion.
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Panzir anti-aircraft systems travel in the convoys and several helicopters have been shot down. The march on Moscow was prepared long in advance. Ammunition was collected for this march, which had allegedly been withheld by the Russian military. This is how it is reported on various channels in the social media.
 
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