The War in the Ukraine

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
A column of Ukrainian vehicles was tracked by drone and bombarded, with some vehicles destroyed.


Ukrainian column under fire, with Krasnopol being used.


Local Ukrainian ammo depot goes up spectacularly as Russian soldiers watch.


Ukrainian Bukovel AD is an EW unit meant to surpress drones. So far it's been reported to work well. However in this case, the observing drone is too far to be effected and the Lancet took the complex out.


Ukrainian soldiers tracked to their hideout, which was finished by artillery. In these cases, Tornado G or Tornado S might be used.

 
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R

Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member
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A

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Temstar said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1669302386119131137
Supposed AFU offensive plan, take it with a grain of salt.

Advance across a 100km front, 100km deep in 8 days reaching Sea of Azov on D+8 day.
I believe today is D+9
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So they are still on the ''local feint'' step ?

Leaked joke most likely. Don't know what they will do next, they cannot continue with small column waves... They need to go full yolo or waiting for Russian forces to move but they like sitting on their bum waiting, it could take forever.
 
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Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Right_People said:
First it was the big columns, the first 3 days were full of videos of columns of more than 10 vehicles smashed.
Similar to the Russians, although the Russians did manage to advance, the lines are well defined, it is quite improbable to advance in such a way now.

We can always ignore the fact that the best equipped AFU brigade, the one with 100 Bradleys, lost 20% of its strength in 1 or 2 days.
It just seems increasingly clear that Ukraine will not make much headway.
The 47th is basically gone, and so on ...

Besides, the skies are controlled by Russia and this is not likely to change, they will introduce the F-16s and it will remain the same.
Overall, the conflict is a closed loop in which Ukraine has little hope. The longer the loop lasts, the more Ukraine will wear down.
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Even 20 vehicules columns are small columns... a couple of squad with ATGM and artillery support could disable that easily like we have seen.

If they want to pass through, they need saturation of the defences at the point of contact. 100 or more vehicules would be a credible wave with an artillery saturation attack just in front of them all the way to the trench to clear minefields and defenders. If you don't want to commit, don't commit. It's all or nothing, Russians are hunting troops concentration anyway.
 
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FriedButter

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
Temstar said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1669302386119131137
Supposed AFU offensive plan, take it with a grain of salt.
Click to expand...
Atomicfrog said:
So they are still on the ''local feint'' step ?

Leaked joke most likely. Don't know what they will do next, they cannot continue with small column waves... They need to go full yolo or waiting for Russian forces to move but they like sitting on their bum waiting, it could take forever.
Click to expand...

Probably a joke or troll. Tho I gotta say the map also accounts for the dam destruction. Idk if anyone noticed but the dnieper river is unusually small and if compared with the map before the dam was destroyed. The light green textures matches exactly where the old water levels is suppose to be.
 
J

jvodan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Temstar said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1669302386119131137
Supposed AFU offensive plan, take it with a grain of salt.

Advance across a 100km front, 100km deep in 8 days reaching Sea of Azov on D+8 day.
I believe today is D+9
Click to expand...
Total fantasy however I feel talk of the offensive being a failure is rather premature.

This is not some copium or hold out from a pro Ukraine devote, but more along the lines of "Seriously the last 5 days was Nato/Ukraine's offensive plan?"



Every armchair general here has seen the events in Uladar, watched the depletion of the Ukrainian Air defences, have heard from all sides on how Russia out guns Ukraine in artillery, through Indonesian news clips witnessed the power of the Russian drones and through a decrease in Ukraine drone clips come to understand that the Russians have made advances in anti drone EW. We have all seen the satellite images and maps of Russian extensive defensive works.
And NATO/Ukraine's battle plan was two run a couple of Brigades into this, to what soften the Russian's up a bit?

Surely this is an expensive faint of a more thought out plan, one more than of simply running into a brick wall to hurt it.


Sure they have managed to get two Brigades decimated for the little ground they have gained. They have 4 open axises but probably don't have enough troops to fight more than 2 paths to the sea.
Brutal as it may sound Ukraine is calculating enough to completely sacrifice some of their best Brigades to draw the Russian reserves away from they main push, which I would presume would be in areas that might chosen for the lack of direct roads from the current locations.
Of course this wouldn't negate Russian airpower so the Ukrainians are probably praying for low clouds
 
T

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Drone from the 68th Army Corp drops mortar shells on Ukrainian positions. It's not about the drone but who's doing it. This suggests the 68th has now taken over Ugledar duties, and the three previous units, the 40th and 155th Marine Brigades, as well as obtf Kaskad has all been moved to the Zaporozhye front.

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Russian Marines in action at Zaporozhye.

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Ka-52 hunts and destroys vehicles at the Vremev Ledge.

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This time, it's Mi-28N "Night Hunters” called into action, using rockets or the LMUR ATGM to destroy enemy vehicles.


Super Cam caught a Humvee, an M113, an M777 and a Ukrainian command post for artillery targeting and bombardment. Is this the next big ZALA UAV?


Ukrainian T-80BV takes a flank hit by a Lancet from obtf Kaskad. The drone operator knows what he is doing, going after the flanks of the tank rather than the front. The tank however, survives the attack, but seems to suffer internal damage, causing it to halt and be abandoned while the crew runs to safety. Nonetheless more impressive than the Leopards 2A6 which took a flank hit from a Lancet and started burning.


Lancet from obtf Kaskad takes down an M777.

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Quadcopter drone named Babu Yagu shot down by Russian troops at Vremky Ledge.

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G

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Zichan said:
In the latest Warcast podcast, M. Koffman opines that Ukraine has an artillery advantage over Russia in the current offensive.
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If they have it, they scarcely used it. I know that the US supposedly depleted the ammo stocks in Israel and South Korea in preparation for this offensive. This was supposed to give Ukraine advantage in number of shells for the duration of the offensive. But so far it hasn't happened. Either Russia managed to substantially destroy these stockpiles prior to the offensive start, with those explosions in ammo dumps, or the Ukrainians haven't used them yet.

Zichan said:
Furthermore, he stated that Ukraine is yet to commit the bulk of its Western trained and equipped forces. In his opinion they are waiting to see which of the two principal axii of advance will produce breakthrough opportunities and will only then commit their main force.
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There was a pause because of a couple days of rain. It remains to be seen what will happen afterwards however.
 
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