The War in the Ukraine

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
CNN posted an interesting article today. Ukraine is taking losses in heavy equipment and soldiers with losses among MRAPs marked as significant. Russian resistance were also greater than they expected during the first attempt according to unnamed senior US officials.



Anyone have an estimate on the size of the initial Ukrainian offensive? CNN reporting there is a much larger planned offensive in the works with current losses having little impact it.


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Hard to say because the footage and reporting is almost exclusively Russian based.

According to Russian sources, almost every single attack involves at least a company, with up to a battalion sized element in each offensive action. In the last two days, there were 4 points of attack from Orikhiv direction. Around Lobkovo, Nesterianka, towards Robotyno, and West of Novopokrovko. In the beginning of the week, there was an attack in the Vremivsky sector, out of Velika Novosilka at 5 different points. Towards Novodarivka, towards Rivnopil, towards Neskuchne, towards Urozhaine, and towards Novodonetsk.

I don't remember which brigades exactly, but so far elements from three different brigades have been identified, possibly more.

If units were reconstituted shortly after retreating and re-grouping, as few as 3-4 battalions were involved, sometimes breaking up into companies to attack in separate directions (unlikely). If units were fully withdrawn, and fresh ones were sent into battle, you could have upwards of 10 or more battalions involved in this first week of fighting.

Despite heavy losses, these formations can be reconstituted, re-equipped with vehicles, and filled up with fresh recruits. So I wouldn't count these damaged formations as necessarily lost or destroyed.

How much irrecoverable damage has Ukraine sustained? Hard to say, but I would edge towards a conservative estimate. As few as 1-2 battalions worth equipment and manpower could be permanently lost, with the rest re-organized and re-introduced into the fight at a later date.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
CNN posted an interesting article today. Ukraine is taking losses in heavy equipment and soldiers with losses among MRAPs marked as significant. Russian resistance were also greater than they expected during the first attempt according to unnamed senior US officials.



Anyone have an estimate on the size of the initial Ukrainian offensive? CNN reporting there is a much larger planned offensive in the works with current losses having little impact it.


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Possible mis information to get Russians to hold back their troops in preparation for a larger attack?
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Why ? With ammo they can still be used like some kind of pillbox but if they have been abandonned they are probably busted beyond use.

They still could confuse air asset for target acquisition if they are in the kill zone tho...

I guess for propaganda. Western AFV's ending up in Patriot Park a mere weeks after being spotted on the front lines is a PR gain
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Despite heavy losses, these formations can be reconstituted, re-equipped with vehicles, and filled up with fresh recruits. So I wouldn't count these damaged formations as necessarily lost or destroyed.

How much irrecoverable damage has Ukraine sustained? Hard to say, but I would edge towards a conservative estimate. As few as 1-2 battalions worth equipment and manpower could be permanently lost, with the rest re-organized and re-introduced into the fight at a later date.
It is like the whack a mole.

Grinding down each other units, and the side having slower atrition will have numberical and qualitative supperiority.

Say coombat effectivness of 1 mth recruit is 1, 6 month one is 2.

So, if you two side, each with 300k and 6 month seniority , so they are ballanced with 600k vs 600 k usability euivalent.

However, if the loss on one side 10%/month then the long term efficiency will be 450k equivalent vs 600k equivalent.

Means as the losses mounting they need to rectruit 1.5 person to replace one experienced one.


But of course the above problem will put strain on the equipment, training ans so on pipeline, means the losses will increase , and it will create a negative spiral.


My personal experience is the same, if a business has a process, that require say 4 person to run if they inexperienced, or 2 if they are well trained and inexperienced, and the business has high turnover then the end result will be higher headcount than the business plan. OR missing delviery and production numbers if the production / plant manager is dumb enought. Not a problem if you have infinite money to drain down, but if tehre is competitive enviroment with finite resources then the end is bankrputcy.
 
D

Deleted member 24525

Guest
Can somebody explain to me why the Ukrainian leadership has been pushing so hard for f-16s? Is it just a morale/propaganda thing to have them in the skies? Every remotely credible military analyst I've seen, including pro Ukraine ones, have repeatedly said it would make basically zero difference since Russian air defenses would force them to fly absurdly low to get close, and even then they would be in serious danger.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Hard to say because the footage and reporting is almost exclusively Russian based.

According to Russian sources, almost every single attack involves at least a company, with up to a battalion sized element in each offensive action. In the last two days, there were 4 points of attack from Orikhiv direction. Around Lobkovo, Nesterianka, towards Robotyno, and West of Novopokrovko. In the beginning of the week, there was an attack in the Vremivsky sector, out of Velika Novosilka at 5 different points. Towards Novodarivka, towards Rivnopil, towards Neskuchne, towards Urozhaine, and towards Novodonetsk.

I don't remember which brigades exactly, but so far elements from three different brigades have been identified, possibly more.

If units were reconstituted shortly after retreating and re-grouping, as few as 3-4 battalions were involved, sometimes breaking up into companies to attack in separate directions (unlikely). If units were fully withdrawn, and fresh ones were sent into battle, you could have upwards of 10 or more battalions involved in this first week of fighting.

Despite heavy losses, these formations can be reconstituted, re-equipped with vehicles, and filled up with fresh recruits. So I wouldn't count these damaged formations as necessarily lost or destroyed.

How much irrecoverable damage has Ukraine sustained? Hard to say, but I would edge towards a conservative estimate. As few as 1-2 battalions worth equipment and manpower could be permanently lost, with the rest re-organized and re-introduced into the fight at a later date.

No footage and reportage from the Ukrainians reveal a few things.

Their drones are getting jammed and shot down. Most footage of consequence are drone based. Russians have drone dominance.

There are no good news to show.


Headed to other news:

ATGM hit on an M113.


ATGM on another M113 this time from an attack helicopter.


Ukrainian POV footage. Tank right next to the one filming gets blown up.


Iglas are used to take down UAVs.

 
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dingyibvs

Senior Member
No footage and reportage from the Ukrainians reveal a few things.

Their drones are getting jammed and shot down. Most footage of consequence are drone based. Russians have drone dominance.

There are no good news to show.


Headed to other news:

ATGM hit on an M113.


ATGM on another M113 this time from an attack helicopter.


Ukrainian POV footage. Tank right next to the one filming gets blown up.


Iglas are used to take down UAVs.

What's the procedure for when a tank next to you get hit? This one stopped to check on on them, is that what you'd usually do?
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
What's the procedure for when a tank next to you get hit? This one stopped to check on on them, is that what you'd usually do?

If you are in an ambush, you need to turn towards the direction where your tank just got shot from. Best parts of tank armor is always going to be at the front of the tank, so you are turning your "shield" towards the attacker. Next, or at the same time preferably, you are going to lay down suppressive fire in that direction and close the distance in order to take out the ambusher.

The people in the damaged tank either need to disembark and get behind the formation, or you need to secure the area before you get them out/help them.

You do not stop for them.

If you stop, you are an easy target.
If you move to the same spot as them, you are an easy target because the enemy has already zeroed in on that spot and doesn't need to make adjustments to hit it again.

If you really need to get somebody out under fire, at least pop lots of smokes, and quickly get them out while getting covering fire.
 
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