Some of the pushes are a repeat of Russian blunders in Ugledar. An Ukranian column is pushing through an open field when one of the vehicles hits a mine, the other vehicles stop and get peppered by artillery
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Minefields are a pain because they are so effective. Imagine the second vehicule following the first that got destroyed, you know if you stop you will be a prime target for artillery and atm but if you turn back or bypass the doomed vehicule you know that you will probably find another mine and blow yourself up. They cannot carpet bombing in front of each advancing column and if the first is a demining one, it will be the first to receive an ATGM.
If Russian forces have some ISDM Zemledeliye remote mine-laying system, they can replenish mines field between waves... Like that it's just starting back to the first case after each waves.
So, let chrunch same data.
For the Wagner, with 50k man it took close to one year to move from Popsana to Bakhmut, good 15 km .
They had air defence, air force, and artirelly allowance 6-10 times bigger than the Captiol can dream of.
And, even with extreme use of artirelly, and cutting down all trees in thebetween popsana and bakhmut with 152mm shells, they suffered 15-40% unrecoverable losses. On 15 km.
So, let me be skeptical about the prospect and realistic of any sensible Ukrainan gain with 70k force, drip feeded ammunition , no air defence, and other side half year worth of industrial scale fortification efforts on the Russian side, and many other benefit.
For the Wagner, with 50k man it took close to one year to move from Popsana to Bakhmut, good 15 km .
They had air defence, air force, and artirelly allowance 6-10 times bigger than the Captiol can dream of.
And, even with extreme use of artirelly, and cutting down all trees in thebetween popsana and bakhmut with 152mm shells, they suffered 15-40% unrecoverable losses. On 15 km.
So, let me be skeptical about the prospect and realistic of any sensible Ukrainan gain with 70k force, drip feeded ammunition , no air defence, and other side half year worth of industrial scale fortification efforts on the Russian side, and many other benefit.
Or the Russians used remote controlled scrap BMPs due to this reason.
It will blow up anyway, and cost less money than a real demining .
We were all predicting this back in the winter.
With all the announcements of an imminent counteroffensive, naturally there were defensive preparations by the Russians.
I was beginning to think that any counteroffensive was just blustering to give more time to build up forces and hope the Russians became overconfident to attack.
The armor most people pay attention to isn't the most important one, until you get into a classic CW armoured engagement.
The armor that matters first is side&rear armor, especially - hull one, but also - vulnerability of the drive train.
Main threats - artillery/MLRS fire(splinters, AT clusters, also smart top attack), mines (classic, stacked, smart side&top attackers), ATGMs(not from the front).
Western MBTs are weaker in this regard (their armor more concentrated - so weaker parts are both weaker and larger, both in proportion and due to sheer size), yet "eat" more damage.
I would be careful to draw conclusions yet, but first contact was rather uninspiring.
if it will go on like this, conclusions will be ugly.
CNN posted an interesting article today. Ukraine is taking losses in heavy equipment and soldiers with losses among MRAPs marked as significant. Russian resistance were also greater than they expected during the first attempt according to unnamed senior US officials.
Anyone have an estimate on the size of the initial Ukrainian offensive? CNN reporting there is a much larger planned offensive in the works with current losses having little impact it.
Anyone have an estimate on the size of the initial Ukrainian offensive? CNN reporting there is a much larger planned offensive in the works with current losses having little impact it.
I just asked a simple technical question: how can 2 oscillations with 7 orders of magnitude different frequency cause resonance with each other? Based on my education and experience, the answer is, they can't. So I just want him to elaborate on why he thinks the dam collapse is a resonance phenomenon.
Apparently the Russians will try to recover the 3 AMX-10RC spotted yesterday
Today's attack relative to Russian positions and defensive lines
Today's attack relative to Russian positions and defensive lines