The War in the Ukraine

tankphobia said:

Equipment attrition on both sides have slowed massively to a sustainable level with some exceptions such as AD missiles on Ukranian side, they can keep at it for a few years yet, front lines are basically frozen until Ukraine offensive launches.

Click to expand...

If Russian claims are to believed, Ukraine lost 261 pieces and vehicles of artillery equipment in May alone. That's artillery pieces and vehicles, not AD, IFV, tanks or special purpose vehicles. That's 16 more than April, so the trajectory is going higher. That's not sustainable by any means.

Ukrainian claims of destroyed Russian equipment remains high too, so I won't say slowed down. It shifted away from tanks to artillery pieces, vehicles and mortars. Total Russian claims of artillery kills remains high, if we also include mortar crews.

Russians can't wait anymore for Ukrainian counteroffensive and now heavily attacking Marinka and Avdiivka.

The Polish Volunteer Corps took part in the attack on Belgorod. So … Poles attacked Belgorod, so they couldn’t even find enough Russians for this mission. The Polish Volunteer Corps has published pictures, confirming it participated in the first armed raid into the Belgorod region, Russia, together with the Russian Volunteer Corps. Russian soldiers claimed earlier they heard some of the enemies communicating in Polish.

baykalov said:

so they couldn’t even find enough Russians for this mission.

Click to expand...

daym. I guess we could expect larger "intrusion" attempt. They really hope Russians will actually reduce pressure elsewhere. The only thing unknown so far is whether Russians have uncommitted force or not.

Overbom said:

Of course it is. Wars are the fastest and most efficient way for consuming your national wealth. The total (direct and indirect) economic damage it causes to a nation is extremely high

Click to expand...

Well, in my opinion that is not correct.
A war used correctly can be a good incentive for the economy.
The most famous example is America during the Second World War, many economists believe that it was the war spending that revived the economy after the Wall Street crash of 1929 and not the New Deal.

In many ways the Russian economy is doing the same, Putin was always very liberal economically and there was a lot of criticism that he did not stimulate the economy with aid, all this has now changed, although it really started to change in 2014 to a lesser scale.
Depending on the outcome of the war on the ground, the Russian economy may be in a very good position for rapid growth.

Right_People said:

Well, in my opinion that is not correct.
A war used correctly can be a good incentive for the economy.
The most famous example is America during the Second World War, many economists believe that it was the war spending items that revived the economy after the Wall Street crash of 1929 and not the New Deal.
View attachment 113867
In many ways the Russian economy is doing the same, Putin was always very liberal economically and there was a lot of criticism that he did not stimulate the economy with aid, all this has now changed, although it really started to change in 2014 to a lesser scale.
Depending on the outcome of the war on the ground, the Russian economy may be in a very good position for rapid growth.

Click to expand...

Russia's factory activity expands for 13th month running in May

(Reuters) - Activity in Russia's manufacturing sector increased for the 13th month running in May and employment rose at its sharpest pace in more than two decades, though export orders contracted, a business survey showed on Thursday.

The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing rose to 53.5 from 52.6 in April, moving further above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction.

"Overall growth was supported by faster expansions in output and new orders, with employment rising at the sharpest pace for 22-1/2 years," S&P Global said in a statement.

Employment was driven by stronger client demand, a trend that also helped decrease work backlogs.

"The rate of job creation was the steepest since November 2000 as firms adjusted their workforce numbers upward amid greater production requirements," S&P Global said.

"Optimism reportedly stemmed from planned investment in new products and processes, alongside hopes of further upticks in client demand," S&P Global said.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

April 2023 was the best month ever for Russian industry. Industrial production increased by 5.1% against the crisis April 2022 and by 2.1% against the pre-sanctions April 2021. Thus, the output of manufactured goods was the highest ever recorded. The largest increase was registered in the manufacturing industry: by 7.8% year-on-year and +13.3% in total over the past four years. The uninterrupted growth of industry has been going on for nine months in a row after the first shock of the sanctions was overcome.

The Azov commanders who surrendered in Azovstal more than a year ago are still in Turkey. Under the terms of the deal, it was agreed that those commanders released in the exchange would remain in Turkey until the end of the war.

Tam said:

If Russian claims are to believed, Ukraine lost 261 pieces and vehicles of artillery equipment in May alone. That's artillery pieces and vehicles, not AD, IFV, tanks or special purpose vehicles. That's 16 more than April, so the trajectory is going higher. That's not sustainable by any means.

Ukrainian claims of destroyed Russian equipment remains high too, so I won't say slowed down. It shifted away from tanks to artillery pieces, vehicles and mortars. Total Russian claims of artillery kills remains high, if we also include mortar crews.

Russians can't wait anymore for Ukrainian counteroffensive and now heavily attacking Marinka and Avdiivka.

Click to expand...

Problem is both sides still have more tubes then shells, so even with the loss of artillery pieces, it will have limited effect on the front.

I think main issue for Ukraine at the moment is that they have no answer to Russia air power i.e Jdamski and r-37.

tankphobia said:

Problem is both sides still have more tubes then shells, so even with the loss of artillery pieces, it will have limited effect on the front.

I think main issue for Ukraine at the moment is that they have no answer to Russia air power i.e Jdamski and r-37.

Click to expand...

Russians still have plenty of shells, and on top of that Iran (definitely) and North Korea (might be and accused of) supplying. The issue is more of Wagner having hogged more of the supply depriving other units which had to slow down and limit their activities. But now that the Battle of Bakhmut is over, the supplies to other fronts and units have picked up and so is Russian offensive activity in a number of places--- Marinka, Avdiivka, Kremenneya, Kupyansk, Seversk, Pervamoiske, and Bilhorivka are the places that must be followed now.

Other changers towards Russian artillery use is the increased use of Krasnopol laser guided munitions, incendiaries from Grads, and more and more TOS-1A. Malva and Kombatsya SPG are also expected to go formal this, and they are likely operational on a testing phase. The use of Krasnopol is important as it confers Russian artillery with first strike first hit capability even on moving targets. This reduces the need to spam unguided shells.

The main issue with Ukraine is the lack of AD in the front that allows Russian observation UAVs to operate in a near unmolested manner, allowing for free rein on Russian drone assisted artillery, loitering munition and laser guided artillery use. The front AD is forcibly withdrawn to protect rear assets from cruise missiles and Gerans. There's also the problem of front AD to get persecuted by loitering munitions like Lancets. Spotting UAVs have done a good job locating local ammo depots, vehicles, shelters and hide outs.

Not related and added to save posts, but it does illustrate what I said.

Russian drone tracks Ukrainian troops (or is this the Free Russia group) to their hideout. What surprised me is that the Russians, instead of using a precision thing like a Krasnopol, brought an entire TOS-1A to bear, blowing up the entire neighborhood.


Never mind the title, the video is a series of Krasnopol strikes on various Ukrainian artillery assets including a BM-21 Grad or Grad variant that tried to seek shelter under a hanger.


0.44 of this video shows a mortar strike on possibly a local ammo depot and 0.55 shows an air strike on another ammo depot

Last night, the Russian armed forces carried out a

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

at military airfields. The purpose of the strike was achieved. Command and control posts, radar posts, Ukrainian aircraft, and storage facilities with weapons and ammunition were hit," the ministry said.

AFU tried to go on the offensive in the South, ofc on their side they will claim "just recon"
Anyway, we see this destroyed for the "recon" mission:


I count around 7-8 MaxxPros and HUMVEEs, 1 M113 and 1 tank.

sarcastic comment deleted - take this as a warning