The War in the Ukraine

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
I believe the Ukrainians are doing dumb maneuvers like that because Zelenskyy is afraid of losing Western support if he appears to be losing. If I remember correctly, this happened before during the Battle of Shanghai during the Second Sino-Japanese War: Jiang Jieshi wanted the West to militarily intervene and defeat Japan and doubled down in Shanghai. As a result, he lost all of his German trained elite troops and a huge chunk of his best troops and had to retreat anyway. Plus, the League of Nations only condemned Japan but didn’t do anything.
Zelensky himself is putting the west before his own country. There's been a few suggestions for what Ukraine could do to help their situation.

One was to cut off Russian gas and oil transitting to Europe. That would take the decision out of Europe's hands and really damage Russia's economy, putting the Russian operation on a timer rather than the casual approach they've been taking. Instead you've got a farcical situation where Russians and Ukrainians are killing each other on the battlefield yet Russia is paying Ukraine transit fees to prop up its economy, and Russia is making more money than before the war thanks to the higher prices.

The second would be to attack the 1,500 Russian garrison in Transnistria. By leaving them isolated Putin is taking a big risk. 5,000 or so Ukrainian troops could overwhelm the Transnistrian garrison and they'd either be in a Mariupol type situation, or they'd be forced to push forces across Nikolaev and Odessa to relieve them. Again, I think the west pressured Zelensky not to do that, as they are worried Putin would use it as an excuse to invade Moldova and potentially turning it into a much bigger conflict.

It's generally a good idea to do things your enemy don't want you to do. Instead Ukrainian defence has been static and reactionary. Zelensky is happy with fake victories on twitter while his censoring any negative news.
 
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Corona

Junior Member
Registered Member
We all have read the same story so many times, even an episode was released today. Missiles don't fly, they exploded in the air after launch, failed to reach the target, cant fly, wont fly etc.
Well enjoy the same story with a new character "Russia".
Less than 40% of Russian missiles are hitting their aim points in Ukraine. 2-3 out of every 10 fired fail to launch or fizzle during flight, 2 more have technical problems, 2-3 more miss their aim-points :

They trashed whole damn place (1:15), why not send SU34 to level it!
Russia's artillery in action :

ZALA Aero REX-2 Anti-Drone Gun in Russian use :
 

solarz

Brigadier
We all have read the same story so many times, even an episode was released today. Missiles don't fly, they exploded in the air after launch, failed to reach the target, cant fly, wont fly etc.
Well enjoy the same story with a new character "Russia".
Less than 40% of Russian missiles are hitting their aim points in Ukraine. 2-3 out of every 10 fired fail to launch or fizzle during flight, 2 more have technical problems, 2-3 more miss their aim-points :

They trashed whole damn place (1:15), why not send SU34 to level it!
Russia's artillery in action :

ZALA Aero REX-2 Anti-Drone Gun in Russian use :

Russians are adapting, it seems. Well, better late than never.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
We all have read the same story so many times, even an episode was released today. Missiles don't fly, they exploded in the air after launch, failed to reach the target, cant fly, wont fly etc.
Well enjoy the same story with a new character "Russia".
Less than 40% of Russian missiles are hitting their aim points in Ukraine. 2-3 out of every 10 fired fail to launch or fizzle during flight, 2 more have technical problems, 2-3 more miss their aim-points
Try reading about the NATO cruise missile strike on Syria in 2017 when Trump was POTUS.
Both sides claimed quite different numbers with regards to missile effectiveness.

I was kind of impressed with the accuracy of Kh-22 to be honest. And a lot of the missiles being shot are really old stocks. Like the Kh-22. One of the crashed ones had Soviet era electronics from like the 1980s. Given these missiles were pretty much hand crafted back then they are as effective as can be expected. More modern missiles should use way more automated production methods with lower error.

Zelensky himself is putting the west before his own country. There's been a few suggestions for what Ukraine could do to help their situation.

One was to cut off Russian gas and oil transitting to Europe. That would take the decision out of Europe's hands and really damage Russia's economy, putting the Russian operation on a timer rather than the casual approach they've been taking. Instead you've got a farcical situation where Russians and Ukrainians are killing each other on the battlefield yet Russia is paying Ukraine transit fees to prop up its economy, and Russia is making more money than before the war thanks to the higher prices.
The gas cut would make little difference. Roughly 42bcm was sent to Europe via Ukrainian pipelines last year. Via Nord Stream the amount is 60bcm. TurkStream is 32bcm and Blue Stream is 16bcm. 10bcm were sent via Power of Siberia to China. And the export to China is supposed to massively ramp up this year. Then you have to take into account the gas price increases since then.

Russia got like triple the amount of money from oil sales than natural gas to Europe last year. 70-85% of the oil exported to Europe goes by ship. Like 4-8% goes by pipeline over Ukraine. And the oil price increased as well. So, no, it would make little difference to Russia even if that was cut. In fact I think Russia would like if all the contracts expired already and they stopped selling energy to countries supplying weapons to Ukraine. It is no use accumulating virtual Euros they can't use to buy anything with.

The second would be to attack the 1,500 Russian garrison in Transnistria. By leaving them isolated Putin is taking a big risk. 5,000 or so Ukrainian troops could overwhelm the Transnistrian garrison and they'd either be in a Mariupol type situation, or they'd be forced to push forces across Nikolaev and Odessa to relieve them. Again, I think the west pressured Zelensky not to do that, as they are worried Putin would use it as an excuse to invade Moldova and potentially turning it into a much bigger conflict.
Some people claim Russia increased the amount of troops in Transnistria by sending people there in little penny packets over several weeks and that the 1,500 number isn't accurate.
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
One of the crashed ones had Soviet era electronics from like the 1980s. Given these missiles were pretty much hand crafted back then they are as effective as can be expected. More modern missiles should use way more automated production methods with lower error.

I think that's Kh-101's and the claim was coming from Ukrainians.

I feel the claim was funny because it is very contradictive to "western narratives" about imported components for Russian missiles. It's from a simple logic that nobody in west making or supporting 1970-1980's electronics anymore. Such means that if the Russians can still support such electronics, mean that they were making them themselves, no or very little imported shits involved in the first place.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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Russia cancels upper age limit for military personnel

The Russian parliament passed a bill on Wednesday to scrap the upper age limit for those who want to serve in the army under a contract.

Previously, Russian citizens aged 18-40 and foreigners aged 18-30 were entitled to conclude the first contract for military service. Now those who are older will be able to serve under a contract until the end of the working age, said Russia's lower parliament house the State Duma.

IDK what working age means in Russia. If it means until retirement then it’s like ~60 then.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
That's reinforcement, some say they are old junk but still, these upgraded T-62m have been used in South Ossetia war and Second Chechen War and are on reserve duty in the Russian army. These have modernization package fielded in the mid 80s (1983 for T-62m) that make them suitable for second line duty in Ukraine.

 
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