LOL...
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Errr okay, that's an odd thing to say. What happened the to 700,000 strong troops recently mobilized.
I remember a while ago when Popasna breakout was first starting I said the Russians are doing a 围点打援 to counter Ukraine's own attempt at 围点打援 with the Kharkiv counteroffensive and it seems true. Ukraine has continuously thrown troops into the Severodonetsk pocket to try to hold it up, including pulling some of the best units away from Kharkiv. Hence why the counterattack fizzled out.
Now with potentially 16,000 men stuck inside the pocket (Russians now control Bilohorivka and have cut the T1302 highway into Severodonetsk) we are increasingly looking at Mariupol 2.0 and it seems Ukrainian government may be setting up another heroic defeat narrative.
I had a theory at the time but I'm more sure now that Russians deliberately withdraw from around Kharkiv - the calculation is that the ground around Kharkiv holds no strategic value at this time as all the attention is in Donbas. It's much better to give up land and preserve manpower and equipment and let Ukrainians expand time and supplies holding that land. It's also why I didn't think there was any counterattack coming for Kharkiv in the near future - regaining that land for the sake of it makes no sense. If there are spare resources better off moving them to around Izyum or invest them into attacking Lyman and force Ukrainians in the pocket to rush from place to place firefighting.
If Kharkiv and area around it needs to be taken they can always be taken again at a future date.
I remember a while ago when Popasna breakout was first starting I said the Russians are doing a 围点打援 to counter Ukraine's own attempt at 围点打援 with the Kharkiv counteroffensive and it seems true. Ukraine has continuously thrown troops into the Severodonetsk pocket to try to hold it up, including pulling some of the best units away from Kharkiv. Hence why the counterattack fizzled out.
Now with potentially 16,000 men stuck inside the pocket (Russians now control Bilohorivka and have cut the T1302 highway into Severodonetsk) we are increasingly looking at Mariupol 2.0 and it seems Ukrainian government may be setting up another heroic defeat narrative.
I had a theory at the time but I'm more sure now that Russians deliberately withdraw from around Kharkiv - the calculation is that the ground around Kharkiv holds no strategic value at this time as all the attention is in Donbas. It's much better to give up land and preserve manpower and equipment and let Ukrainians expand time and supplies holding that land. It's also why I didn't think there was any counterattack coming for Kharkiv in the near future - regaining that land for the sake of it makes no sense. If there are spare resources better off moving them to around Izyum or invest them into attacking Lyman and force Ukrainians in the pocket to rush from place to place firefighting.
If Kharkiv and area around it needs to be taken they can always be taken again at a future date.
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There's no hope if they are stuck inside Severodonetsk, they will be grinded down for sure. Nobody will come for them like in Mariupol and they know it. I don't know if they will throw the sponge and surrender after the first couple of days.
That's an interesting question.
I wonder what that "revolving" would look like.
The positions in Donbass haven't really changed in the past 2 months. Russia hasn't made any significant moves to fully encircle the forces there. If they wanted to they could have, but that doesn't seem part of the plan. Every town "taken" over the past few days seems to be by small reconnaissance forces who've found them completely undefended.
The only reason I think it's being mentioned by the Ukrainians is because the losses of having soldiers in a meat grinder are becoming too much to bear.
Indeed. Those numbers are extremely suspect. Just 3 weeks ago, the Austrian Military Academy assessed that the Russians had 68 battalions in the Donbass against 48 Ukrainian battalions. I sincerely doubt the Russians somehow pulled out an additional 200 battalions out of a hat
No, there's been lots of movements in the last 2 weeks, and today the last major road was cut:
There's actually a little road that goes from Bakhmut to Siversk that's still open, but the capacity is much lower than the Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway, cut today at Bilohorivka. Lyman is also nearly in Russian hands:
Yes, to physically close the pocket will probably need a bridge head across the Siverskyi Donets River from the north, hence that previous river crossing disaster. But besides that major transport links into the Severodonetsk pocket is already cut.
There is a video going around of one of those kamikaze drones landing among a group of ukrainian troops, it was more devastating than what I was expecting. The warhead seems to be at least mortar sized.
Russia has made so much progress in the Donbass region that it's hard to keep up. It seems Ukraine line collapsed after Popasnaya was taking. They will have to retreat from Severodonetsk or it's over. Liman will belong to Russia in a couple of days.
It seems once Ukraine is giving proper equipment to fight like a regular army, they get decimated.
Meanwhile the only interesting news lately is how they are increasing charter of forming a naval coalition to break Russia's devastating blockade of Ukraine. The West REALLY REALLY wants Ukraine's grains. If this happens it means a global war so I don't think it will happen.
Those harpoon they gave are slow and the new Frigates should be safe from them (but they are low flying so reaction distance is possibly only 30km). Regardless it will be weeks or months before they are introduce I believe (training, shipment, traveling to the fronts). Who knows Russia might be moving to turn Ukraine into landlock country by then. The city in question for these exports is Odesa.
Anyway still Russia has subs and they are ones really enforcing those blockade so harpoons won't do much. If they want to end the blockade they will have to directly get involve and then it will be a global war. If Turkey joins or allows ships into the Black Sea then they are equal participants. None of this will happen because of foolish it will be but who knows.
They want the wheat so bad they are thinking about releasing sanctions on Belarus to allow transport on land/rails.
It seems once Ukraine is giving proper equipment to fight like a regular army, they get decimated.
Meanwhile the only interesting news lately is how they are increasing charter of forming a naval coalition to break Russia's devastating blockade of Ukraine. The West REALLY REALLY wants Ukraine's grains. If this happens it means a global war so I don't think it will happen.
Those harpoon they gave are slow and the new Frigates should be safe from them (but they are low flying so reaction distance is possibly only 30km). Regardless it will be weeks or months before they are introduce I believe (training, shipment, traveling to the fronts). Who knows Russia might be moving to turn Ukraine into landlock country by then. The city in question for these exports is Odesa.
Anyway still Russia has subs and they are ones really enforcing those blockade so harpoons won't do much. If they want to end the blockade they will have to directly get involve and then it will be a global war. If Turkey joins or allows ships into the Black Sea then they are equal participants. None of this will happen because of foolish it will be but who knows.
They want the wheat so bad they are thinking about releasing sanctions on Belarus to allow transport on land/rails.
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