The War in the Ukraine

Shadow_Whomel

Junior Member
Registered Member
One U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity and citing initial information, said Washington and Kyiv were already talking about the best way to repair the system and at this point it did not appear the system would have to be removed from Ukraine.

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
I can't help but think that the Russian winter offensive was simply a waste. Untold numbers dead in Bakhmut, miniscule gains near Kreminna, and a whole Naval Brigade wiped out near Vuhledar, and not for the first time. I don't think the attritional fight is even really unfavorable for Kyiv. Bakhmut's still not encircled, and for the most part its manned by TDF with regular mechanized forces sprinkled in. I don't believe for a moment casualty ratios are anything but lopsided, and not in favor of the Russians. This raises the question: Why couldn't Russia have done what the Ukrainians did? There's no way Ukraine can man the whole front without resorting to using TDF. There were plenty of opportunities to exploit such weak spots and achieve localized gains, yet nothing of the sort ever happened. Instead we have Russia running headlong into attritional fights, wearing down their combat potential while Ukraine is building up a counteroffensive. And I feel like those 100+ vehicles lost near Vuhledar could've been pretty decisive in repelling Ukraine's future offensive.

I just don't feel like its sustainable for Ukraine to be able to rollback months of Russian gains in weeks, especially when such a bloody price has been paid.

There's no proof that 100+ vehicles are lost in Ugledar during the initial phase, and quite frankly many of the videos I have seen are repeats of the few vehicles that were destroyed in the front of the attack, including the T-72 that had a drone dropped grenades into it after it was already destroyed and abandoned in the initial charge.

The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade? It's still there and manage to repulse all the Ukrainian counterattacks in the surrounding dachas and has enough firepower to level Ugledar into rubble. There are countless reports and videos to that effect, as well as many videos of destroyed Ukrainian vehicles from counter battery efforts to Lancet attacks. Ugledar has been hit by thermobaric rockets to incendiaries to Krasnopols, all from the brigade claimed to be 'wiped out'.

Because the brigade is alive and kicking and still kicking butt as it goes, that alone puts doubts to claims of Russian losses.

Bakhmut is 99% now under Russian control as the 'Nest' within the 'Citadel' has fallen along with other sections.

 

Intrepid

Major
I guess it should be the radar part, but I mean that this report can be written by someone who recognized every moving metal things as a "Tank", so...
If the Russians hit the radar module, the entire system is out of service until a replacement is delivered.

However, the radar module is not located where the launchers are. This does not fit with the videos and the reports so far. That would be a new story.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
US officials believe the Russian military has been able to pick up on signals that are emitted from the Patriot, allowing them to target the system using the hypersonic missile, known as the Kinzhal or Killjoy.

Anti-radiation Kinzhal, WTF

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Rybar said they destroyed one system and damaged one, but I guess we wont have satellite photos to confirm the real damage this time

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No anti-radiation is needed. Plasma generated around the skin and forming a shock come around the missile would have interfered with signals and passive radar guidance isn't going to happen on a hypersonic missile.

The action is simple. One the signal is geolocated to the source location, you fire the missile to reach there fast enough before the radar can relocate.

The signal geolocator is likely an aircraft flying in high altitudes. We can assume A-50 but perhaps a modified Su-35 is also possible.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
This time we got a Ukrainian APC destroyed by a Vilkr missile, which would have to be from a Ka-52.

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Wagner now appears to have access from Lancets to Krasnopols, which also means Orlans and Forposts. Here is a Krasnopol strike on a bridge.

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Wagner Krasnopol strikes on Ukrainian hideouts and holdouts in Bakhmut citadel.

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Krasnopol strike from an Akasya and guided from an Orlan, hits an M113 in Kremennaya.

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In the Kaluga region, an unidentified winged Ukrainian drone is shot down.

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A Russian cruise missile arrives and destroys at Nikolaev.

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Two Russian missiles arrive and hit things at Kiev.

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'Konstruktor' [Designer] and 'Nest' has fallen in Bakhmut, remaining Ukrainians have retreated to the 'Domino' sector.

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In Seversk, Ukrainian vehicles fall under heavy artillery fire.

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Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member
Bakhmut's still not encircled, and for the most part its manned by TDF with regular mechanized forces sprinkled in.
That is simply not true.

The AFU has lost important units almost entirely in the area.
The SoF have virtually ceased to exist, as the high command has had the brilliant idea of not committing the 8 new brigades and instead using the SoF among other units to fill the gap. Besides the SoF other important elite units such as Aidar or the Pravy Sector elite have suffered heavy and important casualties.

One of the advantages of the way the Ukrainian army operates in since 2014 many military and militia officers have become personalities is that it is very easy to verify which units are fighting.


So the claim that the AFU is losing "second rate units" is simply untrue, my own sources in the AFU tell me about the losses in the area...

If anyone has benefited from the attrition in this area it is Russia, which has not only taken the city (with 8 Soviet flat blocks left) but a significant part of the damage has been absorbed by a subcontractor with many units being penal battalions ...

MOD EDIT: Removed names/photos of KIA.
 
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Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member
US officials believe the Russian military has been able to pick up on signals that are emitted from the Patriot, allowing them to target the system using the hypersonic missile, known as the Kinzhal or Killjoy.

Anti-radiation Kinzhal, WTF

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Rybar said they destroyed one system and damaged one, but I guess we wont have satellite photos to confirm the real damage this time

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Perhaps a third element, perhaps a Kh-31 equipped for this purpose, picks up the location and transmits it to the Mig with the Kinzhal.

The launchers are quickly replaceable and can be placed far apart from each other (I read up to 10 km distance between launchers and command / radar is possible). Why are two launchers close together? That doesn't sound particularly credible.
In a dense urban environment there are probably not too many locations that offer an adequate and unobstructed horizon of visibility but are close to the area to be protected.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
If the Russians hit the radar module, the entire system is out of service until a replacement is delivered.

However, the radar module is not located where the launchers are. This does not fit with the videos and the reports so far. That would be a new story.
Distance between the missiles and radar restricted, they has to be quite close.

And the radar use RF to communicatie with the launchers, so that can be picked as well.


But nevertless, to target the launchers HARDER job than to target the radar.


And the patriot is a backward system compared to the S-300, it has hot launch, directional casiters, not cold launch vertical ones.

Means after set up the patrior has blind spots , compared to the oldest S300 which is omnidirectional.

And these are the differences before we get into the controler and data exchange systems.

So, it is not integrating with the radards/launchers of the Ukrainans, they haven't got maintanance and operation expertise on any level. It is primitive and technologically backward, means easier to destroy, and gives less protection.

But , as a bonus, the two system in Ukraine could exhaust in short period of time the whole USA SAM inventory. Maybe Russia want to trigger that, and they spared the radar due to this reason.
 
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