The War in the Ukraine

Stealthflanker said:

Legally tho Since Ukraine is signatory of MTCR.. they can get the long range version, provided that they"comply" not to transfer any technology they learned from the missile to external party.

If they get refurbished shorter range missile or "MTCR Compliant" That would be over political consideration.

Also i would expect NATO or Western nation will play a blind eye on agreement or treaty in this respect.

Click to expand...

Not as far as I'm aware, the MTCR restrictions applies to both members and non members. The only way missiles violating the treaty can be exported if prior agreements were made.

I don't think the blind eye argument will get very far, as once the precedent has been set there's nothing stopping the Russians from exporting ballistic missiles to Argentina, for example - one of the reasons why the treaty was created.

To me it seems like another example of globalist interests being put before British ones.

Ukrainian tank in pieces. Many shells in the area. Look at all the dead trees in the area. There must have been an ammo depot in the area then something big hit from above.


Some new decoy drone deployed by the Russians recently.


Captured Kozak being reused by new owners.


TOS-1A being used on Ukrainian positions on Kremennaya forest.

SlothmanAllen said:

How do they launch the Storm Shadow? Also, a twitter post I read earlier also indicated Ukraine had MALD? That seems like a major increase in long range strike and jamming for Ukraine!

Click to expand...

True. Its confirmed by wreckage in Russian Telegram channels.

SlothmanAllen said:

How do they launch the Storm Shadow?

Click to expand...

By attaching it to one of the Ukrainian Su-24M

Abominable said:

I don't think the blind eye argument will get very far, as once the precedent has been set there's nothing stopping the Russians from exporting ballistic missiles to Argentina, for example - one of the reasons why the treaty was created.

Click to expand...

They are. and they can with Reduced MTCR compliant range.

So basically a non-signatory nation will only able to get the reduced range version from a Signatory nation. If both parties involved are signatory then a full capability could be supplied on agreement.

RottenPanzer said:

By attaching it to one of the Ukrainian Su-24M

Click to expand...

Yeah, I get they strap it to a Soviet/Russian jet, but how does it know where to go/receive targeting information? There must be some sort of translation layer between the Russian programing language and the Storm Shadow. I think that is very interesting. I work in IT and those types of things interest me.

Tam said:

True. Its confirmed by wreckage in Russian Telegram channels.

Click to expand...

I don't know a lot about the MALD, but from what I understand it can be quite an effective jammer/spoofing device.

If you think about Storm Shadow and MALD, then you have quite a potent combination of NATO weaponry being launched from Russian/Soviet aircraft.

SlothmanAllen said:

Yeah, I get they strap it to a Soviet/Russian jet, but how does it know where to go/receive targeting information? There must be some sort of translation layer between the Russian programing language and the Storm Shadow. I think that is very interesting. I work in IT and those types of things interest me.

Click to expand...

They figured it out for other Western missiles and Mig-29s, they can figure it out for Su-24s.

================================================================

The Storm Shadow is potentially game changing, because it gives another credible strike capability that could possibly be sustained long-term. I don't know how many Tochkas Ukraine has, but they haven't been used much. The Storm Shadow should be stealthier as well, which would increase its chance of penetrating air defenses.

I am curious how RuAF will adapt, but also, how they will "escalate" the conflict.

Tam said:

True. Its confirmed by wreckage in Russian Telegram channels.

Click to expand...

HighGround said:

They figured it out for other Western missiles and Mig-29s, they can figure it out for Su-24s.

================================================================

The Storm Shadow is potentially game changing, because it gives another credible strike capability that could possibly be sustained long-term. I don't know how many Tochkas Ukraine has, but they haven't been used much. The Storm Shadow should be stealthier as well, which would increase its chance of penetrating air defenses.

I am curious how RuAF will adapt, but also, how they will "escalate" the conflict.

Click to expand...

Do we know how many Storm Shadows have been produced? Does a significant number of them exist to be donated to Ukraine to make an significant impact on the course of the war?

What Wagner gains, Russian army looses. Wagner firing at retreating Russian troops to stop the flanks from collapsing.

Stealthflanker said:

They are. and they can with Reduced MTCR compliant range.

So basically a non-signatory nation will only able to get the reduced range version from a Signatory nation. If both parties involved are signatory then a full capability could be supplied on agreement.

Click to expand...

This is incorrect. From the US state department website:

14. Are exports to Partners treated differently than exports to non Partners?

The MTCR Guidelines do not distinguish between exports to Partners and exports to non-Partners. Moreover, the MTCR Partners have explicitly affirmed that membership in the Regime provides no entitlement to obtain technology from another Partner and no obligation to supply it. Partners are expected to exercise appropriate accountability and restraint in trade among Partners, just as they would in trade between Partners and non-Partners. Partners are bound by a “no-undercut” policy to consult each other before considering exporting an item on the list that has been notified as denied by another Partner pursuant to the MTCR Guidelines.

Click to expand...

Of course the argument can be made it's a non binding agreement and any country can export whatever missile technology they want without punishment. That argument will end up with multi billion dollar Patriot systems needing to be deployed to Cyprus, Falklands and other corners of the world as Russia will be handing out ballistic missiles from their stocks to all the UK's adversaries. Brilliant.

SlothmanAllen said:

Do we know how many Storm Shadows have been produced? Does a significant number of them exist to be donated to Ukraine to make an significant impact on the course of the war?

Click to expand...

It's essentially a first generation tomahawk with gimped range (I assume). It may stand a better chance of penetrating the Russian SAM systems than the Ukraine's existing stockpiles, and provide more bang than their aliexpress drone weapons.

Given the UK has only ever used them in single digit numbers unlikely to have stockpiled them in any significant number...the UK has absolutely no need for cruise missiles. In other words, another wunderwaffe.