The War in the Ukraine

Right_People

Junior Member
Registered Member
I guess if they are able to jury-rig HARM missiles to Mig-29's then these decoys shouldn't be an issue either?

This attack is likely the first time they've been used.
Ukraine has I think 30 NATO Migs, probably more and they've probably been working on this for a year, if it wasn't already operational or semi-operational on those aircraft.
So that's to be expected, as well as other types of weapons.

Ukraine is getting more and more of NATO's best systems, which is interesting in many ways.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
So while "cope cages" are a desperate measure it makes sense why Russian MoD would not commit extremely scarce resources to address an issue that is responsible for perhaps 5% of all tank losses. That's logic of war. A much bigger problem is Russia's inability to address the other 90% of losses which are also to a large degree preventable.

These losses were caused by bad operational planning rather than anything technology related or even something that Ukraine necessarily did.
What most people are not aware of is that ATGMs were never intended to be "tank-killers". ATGMs were created as substitutes for anti-tank guns in infantry formations. In the 1960s tank armour became to strong for anything other than very heavy guns and that simply hit the barrier of mobility.
Tanks or self-propelled anti-tank guns were too expensive, and towed anti-tank guns were too vulnerable. ATGMs were the solution. They were cheaper than towed guns and had sufficient (if still very low) effectiveness during the 60s and 70s but then composite and reactive armour caught up. If ATGMs were so effective then US Army wouldn't push for MLRS loaded with anti-armour cluster munitions. M26 with DCPIM was the real tank killer in AirLand Battle, not TOW or even Hellfire.

This is new to me. Thank you.

And then there's the obvious fact that Lancets are not relevant. They are Russia's "Saint Javelin" or "Bayraktar" except without a song.

That's because I have yet to see a single report which lists Lancets as a serious threat that needs to be addressed as a priority. While they may consume the attention of keyboard warriors they barely register in the optics of war planners.

In my opinion, you're probably right, but I don't think we have enough information to conclude that. Keyboard warriors also obsess over HIMARS, which have had a major effect on the battlefield even if they don't generate many effects now.

There are also political reasons to refuse acknowledging the Lancet as a successful system and a significant influence on the battlefield.
According to The Military Balance 2023 by International Institute for Strategic Studies at the end of 2022 Russian ground forces had approximately 100 T-90M/AM in service.

Oryx lists 19 T-90M as lost in Ukraine. This is ~20% unrecoverable loss rate which usually translates to 30-40% of total short-term loss of equipment from all causes. And that occurs in the static phase of war.

However my numbers based off updates to Oryx list indicate that it's indeed lower rate of losses compared to other types of vehicles, only slightly below T-72B3 (26%) but much lower than the T-80s which were wiped out at rates of 40% (BVM) or 100% (other).

Tanks need good support to be effective and Russia invaded without it - hence the results.

Russia invaded with certain assumptions about the type of war they would be fighting. The relevancy of Oryx's numbers are questionable as a large part of Russian tank losses occurred in the initial phase of war.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Six days ago, destroyed Humvee in Bakhmut.


Ukrainian 2S1 Gvozdika destroyed by drone assisted artillery.


Russian ATGM and mortars hitting spotted hidden Ukrainian positions in night battle.


Ukrainian tank and BMP each gets knocked out by ATGMs in dramatic combat footage.


Ukraine communications array got knocked out via ATGM.

 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
No, he hasn't really responded.
He always does the same thing, starts with something related and writes a wall of text based on assumptions we don't know and ends up responding tangentially.
Ok Then let's jump into it.
He starts talking about "cope cages" as a response to the Javelins. But is there any proof of this?
Wouldn't it make more sense for cope cages to be a response to a weapon that we have seen to be more devastating, simple grenades and other drone-launched shells?
If they wanted to give a minimal response to the Javelin they would put ERA blocks on top of the cope cages and with very rare exceptions we haven't seen that, and we can't talk about there being few blocks available for this task, as the Kontact-1s are everywhere.
I agree with that. The idea of "cope" cages being designed to help Russian tankers cope with the idea of getting hit by Javelins and NLAW's was a myth spread by Westerners who wanted to denigrate Russian forces. I read that these cages were based on the experiences in Syria in which ISIS would use drones to drop grenades and other explosives. Such a concept succeeded and they must have thought that such a piece of equipment would be useful in a near peer conflict.
He then connects it to something a Pole said, again writing about artillery stopping more tanks, which is something that has nothing to do with the conversation that was being talked about, however true it is.
Then he says that ATGMs basically don't really stop tanks?
There is a myth going through the Internet that Javelins and NLAW's were the main killers of Russian armor. His reference to that presentation was to explain which weapons platform is the major reason behind the destruction or damage of Russian tanks, and ATGM's aren't it. Artillery is. He was providing more reasons for why the myth about the Javelin is still a myth.
Then there is a another chunk of the wall of text talking about how the Kiev "blitz" was stopped by flooding swamps ...
He was continuing to destroy the idea of the Javelins being the wonder weapon and said that successful combined arms maneuvers and offenses along with selection of terrain defeated the Russians, not soldiers and partisans running around with Javelins.
It's also funny that he says that Ukraine has no media despite being inundated with NATO media and having Starlink for example, which has seen extensive use by the military.

Then he says that the best defence strategy is movement.
Great!
But the only problem is that the war has taken on a static character for both sides since 1 year, it is not about what is "ideal", it is about adapting to reality. If Ukraine has no means of communication, why did it advance on Kharkov? In fact this seems to be, in fact, one of Russia's biggest advantages, as NATO has been able to flood the Ukrainian army with such equipment. And my own friends in the AFU have told me about this!
And please, more than a year into the war, it is simply unrealistic to pretend that Ukraine does not have a "NATO" army today, most of my friends are military, they have trained operators of all kinds during all this time, every system there is, Ukraine has it. From SPGs to small arms and all systems in between means of any kind.

Of course, Ukraine operates more NATO SPGs than most NATO members combined, but they have not been given communications systems ...
If I am reading this correctly, you are saying that:

Ukraine actually does have the necessary C4 equipment. Otherwise they wouldn't be able to coordinate their various SPG's and conduct a maneuver like the one demonstrasted in Kharkiv. So you are implying that a lack of C4 equipment isn't the cause of Ukraine's inability to maneuver to fight and counter drones and that the ideal counter shouldn't be the main counter in this conflict ( in this case, the ideal counter is movement).

If so, I can't judge since I have no clue about the amount of C4 equipment Ukraine has. Markoz was explaining that movement and tempo is the best counter to the drones, but you counter that Ukraine can't do that due to the static nature of the conflict. Obviously, he would say that Ukraine lacks the C4 equipment to move, but you just said that they do via your friends in the AFU and the Kharkiv offensive. That does sound like a fair point unless verified stats are brought up from him.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
I agree with that. The idea of "cope" cages being designed to help Russian tankers cope with the idea of getting hit by Javelins and NLAW's was a myth spread by Westerners who wanted to denigrate Russian forces. I read that these cages were based on the experiences in Syria in which ISIS would use drones to drop grenades and other explosives. Such a concept succeeded and they must have thought that such a piece of equipment would be useful in a near peer conflict.
They are much older than that. They were used in Afghanistan and Chechnya against RPGs (quite effectively). I've even read about Soviet tankers fitting them onto T-34s in WW2 when the Germans first started deploying Panzerschreck with shaped charges.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Air strikes against depots in Zaporozhye.

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FAB-500 with UMPC glide kit hits Ukrainian controlled high rise in western Bakhmut.

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Another air strike this time Ukrainian positions at Svatovo.

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Counter battery operation. This Ukrainian SPG was drone spotted firing it's guns. It was pinpointed and hit with artillery.

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Russian drone spotted a Ukrainian mortar nest. The nest was hit with artillery and there was ammunition cook-off.

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The Soviets introduced the Shtora-1 soft-kill APS in the late 1980s. All the Russian T-90 tanks have the system. The US will only be adding laser warning receivers to the M1 in the M1A2SEPV4 package. Since the Krasnopol uses laser guidance this does provide some kind of defense against it. So, unlike all in service US tanks which have zero protection against Krasnopol attacks, all T-90s have it.

Now you expect Russia to have APS in service which is not in service anywhere else. Something which detects any incoming missiles or artillery projectiles and intercepts them. Even Trophy cannot intercept artillery shells. The Israelis started using Trophy in 2009 and the US only started using it in 2018. Only a limited amount of M1 tanks have Trophy in them.
 
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