The War in the Ukraine

The ground seems to still be messy


There are new claims of T-14 being deployed, mostly in a fire support role instead of assault

sheogorath said:

Strike with what is claimed to be to FAB-500 with gliding kits around some of the islands in the Dnipro river.

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You need to sign up for Vk. Here's the YouTube version, and YouTube won't dare delete a major Indonesian news channel with millions of viewers like they do on small Russian channels. This appears like two bombs or strikes.


On other events, Lancet from the paratroopers hit a hidden 2S1 self propelled gun.


This is just as bad as the thermobaric weapons or the glide bombs. Incendiary weapons turns an entire fortified area into hell. Here a Ukrainian fortified position is burned down, and vehicles and ammo stores cook off from the heat.

TK3600 said:

With progress like this Russia could take most of Donestk by end of year. Then they need to ask themselves what is next? Ukraine will not give up. Should they call it a day or keep going for Dniprotrovsk or Kherson? What if they still dont negotiate? They should have a end game ready.

The further they push west the harder to occupy a more disobedient population. On other hand things will get easier as Ukraine exert itself. This is another factor to consider due to limited manpower size of Russia. It could limit the amount of land they occupy.

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Donbass is in fact one of the best places for defense, since there is hills and a lot of settlements.

Once you pass the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk line there is nothing but downhill plains until you reach the Dniepr and not much population to control. Also central Ukraine is not that pro-nationalist and is somewhat neutral we could say from election results.
Should Sloviansk-Kramatorsk line fall I would expect a quick run to the river and then probably focus on Kharkiv.
With all this religious, civil and economic problems, even Zelensky officials had to admit that there is a growing sentiment for negotiations, I wouldnt even rule out that some warlord pulls out a Kadyrov and seizes power inside ukraine in favour of Russia...

I think everything related to the ukranian moral and support will depend on the success or lack of this in the upcoming offensive, as many pointed out, the support for war is also going down and down in EU ...

Seems like another ukranian Su-25 was shot down:



Just outside Kherson.
Su-25s of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to attack Russian army positions, one destroyed
The enemy attack aircraft were heading towards the islands on the Dnieper, on the way the first received a missile from our fighters and collapsed near the shore. The second one flew away in terror, away from the Russian positions.

Another UMPK strike in Kupyansk


Spirne gas station seems to have been taken. This one was the plane we would routinely get bombed by Russian artillery


What's left of a Krab SPG. Out of the 18 Krabs received, seems most are gone by now if we go by lostarmour.info list which counts 12 of them destroyed or damaged


DW article on the use of gliding bombs. Mentions up to 20 bombs dropped daily, though there is a lot of cope in the article and then it becomes the usual complain over western fighter jets



According to this claim, Ukraine is using Territorial Defense units as bait. They will man trenches which will be overrun by Russian units and then Ukranian artillery will open fire on these trenches after they have been taken over

T-55s and Bradleys in the same unit... at any other times this would be weird.

Strangelove said:

T-55s and Bradleys in the same unit... at any other times this would be weird.

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These are pictures of Wagner anti-tank crew.

sheogorath said:

DW article on the use of gliding bombs. Mentions up to 20 bombs dropped daily, though there is a lot of cope in the article and then it becomes the usual complain over western fighter jets

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Data add up, ealier was a mention about ten aircraft per day dedicated for glide bombs, one sortie / day with two bombs will result in 20 strikes.


Most likelly the bottleneck is the available bombs.

One of those bombs has 350 kg explosive load, normal piece of artirelly has 7 kg, means each of them worth 50 pcs of 152 mm ammunition.

Now, considering the higher recision over longer distance these strikes most likelly worht the equivalent of say 5000 pcs of 152 mm shell.

Estimate of Russian 152 mm shell usage is in the range of 5000-20 000 shell /day, means this power increase dramatically the firepower.


IF they can increase the production rate fourfould then that would be devastating for the ukrainan military.

Anlsvrthng said:

Data add up, ealier was a mention about ten aircraft per day dedicated for glide bombs, one sortie / day with two bombs will result in 20 strikes.


Most likelly the bottleneck is the available bombs.

One of those bombs has 350 kg explosive load, normal piece of artirelly has 7 kg, means each of them worth 50 pcs of 152 mm ammunition.

Now, considering the higher recision over longer distance these strikes most likelly worht the equivalent of say 5000 pcs of 152 mm shell.

Estimate of Russian 152 mm shell usage is in the range of 5000-20 000 shell /day, means this power increase dramatically the firepower.


IF they can increase the production rate fourfould then that would be devastating for the ukrainan military.

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In many cases, such as tall buildings within cities, the impact of a single FAB bomb greatly exceeds the number equivalent of artillery shells. Look at Vuhledar, the buildings were still standing after months of bombardment but a single FAB bomb can take one down. Similar thing for heavy bridges.

The destruction of a 155mm M777 howitzer by a Lancet drone in the Kherson direction. Remarkably, the video shows the Ukrainian military sheltering the installation with a camouflage net and an anti-lancet tent, but it did not save it.



What is the latest information about the production cost of an M777 or other NATO counterparts, as well as the production in total numbers?

From the United States alone they received more than 120 M777 towed artillery systems, put in context, a large country like Spain has less than 90 of the domestic counterpart system, Italy uses 90 HF-70 ( Italian counterpart).
In other words, a very large number of these systems have been delivered to Ukraine and they seem to be almost losing one a day to the Lancets. If this trend continues, Ukraine may not only have problems with 155mm ammunition but also with the barrels.