The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
There goes Russia's main advantage thus far... the ability to conduct long range missile and air strikes.

They had a vast inventory of S-300 before the war, lost them. Got replacement for Slovakia and they got busted... Receiving a bunch of Patriot ? Maybe they will have the time to use some but don't know how many ammo they have to replenish after a salvo of missiles. It will be another bunch of equipments dumped in the blackhole it seems.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Patriot seems like a good target for Kinzhal if they're confident about its ability to penetrate air defense. If you get footage of a Kinzhal just zipping through interceptors and hit the complex it would be a big propaganda victory.

Patriots have struggled with 60s era Iraqi scuds.
That was PAC-2, current Patriots are PAC-3. That said you would think Ukraine won't be getting the latest and greatest. Bit interesting that they are giving Patriots at this time, perhaps that attack on Malin Train Station in Zhytomyr Oblast where a load of NATO weapon was destroyed really pissed the Americans off.
 
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sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
There is also the fact that the actual "good" Patriot against Ballistic missiles is the PAC-3, and I don't see Ukraine getting those if the trend of outdated/expired material is anything to go by.

Also losing a functional PAC-3 would jeopardize the US entire Pacific strategy.
 
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supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
They had a vast inventory of S-300 before the war, lost them. Got replacement for Slovakia and they got busted... Receiving a bunch of Patriot ? Maybe they will have the time to use some but don't know how many ammo they have to replenish after a salvo of missiles. It will be another bunch of equipments dumped in the blackhole it seems.

Again the announcement overshadows the logical conclusion.

1. No longer hearing of any shoot downs of higher altitude aircraft like Su-35 recently (actually not even helos)
2. RuAF seems to be conducting more effective strikes lately
3. Not many reports of S-300 or Buks being knocked out recently

Conclusion is that Patriot is needed because the higher end SAMs are either exhausted or destroyed.

Patriot absolutely needs good operators, these are very expensive systems. If anyone followed the Taiwan thread, the question is not whether Patriot is effective, but whether you can afford to launch Patriots at much cheaper munitions like MLRS rockets…

Something like this:
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
How much do you want to bet that ethnic Ukrainian-American "advisors" will be defacto operating these Patriot air defense systems, either in-person, or even remotely?
Sadly, Russia's main advantage (air superiority) will be blunt by the Patriot air defense system, which will only prolong this war longer and longer.
What makes you think it will work better against Russian theater missiles than it does against Houti clones of Iranian cruise missiles?
The Russians even have hypersonic missiles (like Iskander) and stealth missiles (like Kh-101), while the Houtis do not.

The performance specifications of the older versions of Patriot aren't better than the ones in the Soviet S-300 systems the Ukrainians had.

And it takes years, not weeks, nor months, to learn how to operate a system like that. For your info the USA does not allow Saudi Arabia to operate the Patriot. The systems in Saudi Arabia are operated by US operators. And this is the case in most countries which have the Patriot.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
He has said so a gazillion times, though on late March he stopped saying so as frequently as he did before. Now, he is saying so again...
Ukraine has pulled this kind of BS multiple times including with Minsk I and Minsk II. I think the only way the Russians would take them seriously would be if they stopped getting weapons supplies, changed their constitution back to the original one where they had neutrality written in it, and caved in to the demands for de-nazification and de-militarization. But they still seem to think they can continue to resist. They take Russia's restraint to attack main populated areas liberally as weakness. Grave mistake I think.
 

Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
He has said so a gazillion times, though on late March he stopped saying so as frequently as he did before. Now, he is saying so again...

It is beginning to look more and more to me that Zelensky wanted to end the war via a negotiated settlement from day 1. But every time he raised the idea, it was shut down by the US. Now he is testing the water once again.

If he can sustain this for a week or two, may be he is given a bit more leeway this time. But I doubt it.
 
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