The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
In the latest War on the Rocks podcast, M. Koffman put forward his opinion that the current lackluster Russian offensive is doing a major favor to Ukraine. The Russians will have exhausted themselves by attacking to the point, when Ukraine launches its offensive in late spring or summer, and will therefore not have the reserves to exploit any vulnerabilities that might open up during Ukraine’s offensive.
He opines that Surovikin’s plan was to receive the Ukraine’s offensive first, before launching a Russian offensive in summer which would’ve been far more dangerous for Ukraine. However, a certain somebody in Kremlin is impatient and gave Gerasimov the green light to go on the attack even while the Russian forces are not quite ready. In Koffman’s opinion, Russia needs another round of mobilization to be able to decisively push back the Ukranians.
He opines that Surovikin’s plan was to receive the Ukraine’s offensive first, before launching a Russian offensive in summer which would’ve been far more dangerous for Ukraine. However, a certain somebody in Kremlin is impatient and gave Gerasimov the green light to go on the attack even while the Russian forces are not quite ready. In Koffman’s opinion, Russia needs another round of mobilization to be able to decisively push back the Ukranians.
Up to ROCAF standards.
Would love someone to explain why Russia persists with attacking across a huge front instead of concentrating their forces to achieve a few breakthroughs in Ukrainian defensive lines and then moving in quickly to exploit the openings
I just dont see how these huge offensives across such a big front can work in Russia's favour unless they somehow more than doubled their committed forces
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Another lone Ukrainian APC gets ambushed. I believe these lone APCs which I have seen already in a number of videos, are ferrying the wounded back behind lines. Unfortunately for them, the roads they are traveling may already be in a grey zone or within targeting range.
Does anyone else think that Mike Koffman is basically incompetent?
He is an intelligent guy, extremely well read and has a good position (at IISS) but he lacks a military background and his analysis is (typically Ukrainian biased) armchair general level stuff everytime I see him. I think his main weakness is that he does not understand military tactics, strategy, and operations very well. Basically an armchair general expert.
An Armata has been spotted in UVZ's line where they also build T-90M's along with 3 BMPT's. Maybe an increase in production to send them to the front?
he is not wrong, russia needs way more troops than they have now. i want to say another round of 150k draft at a minimum to absorb the losses from upcoming ukrainian offensive, and a counteroffensive to overwhelm their defenses.
although this winter offensive being rushed is very much copium, does this guy have any clue how much planning and preparation is needed for an offensive of this size? operations like the one we are witnessing gets delayed more than they get rushed. even when they do get rushed, i can see bringing the date forward by a couple weeks, while koffman is suggesting that the russian command took a plan for the summer, brought it forward by five months?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Just warfare 101. Unless pushing to specific, close by objectives, focused narrow front assaults are incredibly easy to counter because you are basically creating salients for the enemy to pinch off and make dumplings with.
In combat history, very rarely have narrow front assaults ever worked out to the benefit of the attacker, which is why such assaults are generally only ever done by the loosing side out of desperation, which ironically generally only served to hasten their ultimate collapse.