The War in the Ukraine

Overbom said:

Just a quick detour from the normal operation of the thread, given that we are approaching the 1 year mark:

With about 1 year since the war started, I wanted to highlight why they say that war is a disaster for a nation, constantly drawing its wealth.

If we go by averages, and with a simple estimation. Lets say every day in the war it costs Russia $200 million (ammo consumption, ordinance, logistics, maintenance, compensation for dead/wounded etc) for its military needs.

200 × 365 (days in a year). We can say that the first year of this war has likely cost Russia:
$73 billion
Mind you, that's direct costs, not indirect (which could easily be double)

Its not only about spending all that money on war, but also the opportunity cost. Lets say Russia wasn't at war, and wanted to invest $73 billion in its civilian economy and business, imagine how much it would have developed. Now you can see how damaging a war is for a country

This is why, certain famous people (lol), have always said to finish a war quickly. The more time you spend on this, the more your strength will weaken, and the more the opportunity costs you accrue as not the whole planet is at war. Other countries at peace continue to invest in their economies while you have to spend your money for war.

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The best move is to not play. The 2nd best move is to win fast. The 3rd best move is to win slowly. But it's always bad to lose or to leave your interests on the table without a fight.

Russia is also dragging others down with it like inflicting $1T losses to EU via high energy prices, lost opportunity for industry and inflation. It has clawed back some money with high gas prices, capital controls, and forcing ruble use for purchasing gas.

Close range tank engagement.

A bit different this time. Lancet from obtf Kaskad hit a Ukrainian tank. The crew was apparently trying to put out the fire. But a second Lancet came down and apparently might have finished off the tank. This looks to have taken place near Ugledar.


An ATGM courtesy of the DPR hits a Ukrainian tank or is that a BMP?

FriedButter said:

Legion is part of the French Army and the Gurkhas is more of a group of people from a certain region. Neither falls into the PWC category.



The minimum for mobilized troops is $2700-2800 per month for the Russians. Contract soldiers are likely paid higher. Wagner was like $3000-5000 per month depending on source with one saying up to $10,000 but that was likely a very specific position. News reports do say that both the Russians and Wagner offer bonuses as well.

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Nice thing is it goes from the useless international reserves.

Considering that they still accumulating reserves the wage of war financed by the oil revenues, and those money's can't be sepent for any usefull.


So, Russia found a place for the sanctioned money.

Overbom said:

Just a quick detour from the normal operation of the thread, given that we are approaching the 1 year mark:

With about 1 year since the war started, I wanted to highlight why they say that war is a disaster for a nation, constantly drawing its wealth.

If we go by averages, and with a simple estimation. Lets say every day in the war it costs Russia $200 million (ammo consumption, ordinance, logistics, maintenance, compensation for dead/wounded etc) for its military needs.

200 × 365 (days in a year). We can say that the first year of this war has likely cost Russia:
$73 billion
Mind you, that's direct costs, not indirect (which could easily be double)

Its not only about spending all that money on war, but also the opportunity cost. Lets say Russia wasn't at war, and wanted to invest $73 billion in its civilian economy and business, imagine how much it would have developed. Now you can see how damaging a war is for a country

This is why, certain famous people (lol), have always said to finish a war quickly. The more time you spend on this, the more your strength will weaken, and the more the opportunity costs you accrue as not the whole planet is at war. Other countries at peace continue to invest in their economies while you have to spend your money for war.

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It doesn't work like that .

The economical benefit of the war is huge for Russia, they esablishing local supply chains instead of the USA controled ones, started to organise a Russia centric economical system.


Think like that ,by your logic the USA become very poor after the second world war, becuase lot of money was wasted for war activity instead of proper nationa building.

The reality is the USA economy and level of living supercharged due to the war economy.

And Russia is in better position, due to the huge trade surplus they don't need "war bonds" and similar financial instruments to restrict the consumption of population (like USA in 1949),rather they can use the trade deficit that previously was invested into the USA financial markets to finance this war.

Summary :
1. Germany 30-38, USA 38-45 gives good falsification by similar situation
2. Trade ballance of Russia gives ample of access to the Chinese/South american / Asian market, without any need to decrease the level of living.

baykalov said:

"Bakhmut will be held, and those who complain about the high price and sacrifice should not forget that if we retreat, another city will become a new Bakhmut,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba.

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Let's summarise, the Ukrainan leadership doesn't care about economical damage or about the lost lives, only important is to hurt as much Russia as they can.

Bit psychopathic , isn't ? Democracy in its finest.

Available manpower of Ukraine :

MarKoz81 said:

This is male population pyramid for Russia and Ukraine:

View attachment 107418

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Let's check the available data .
Ukrainan in Poland :
2019, Guardian estimate the number of Ukrainan in Poland to 2 million.
file:///C:/Users/Milan_user/Downloads/work_permits_for_foreigners_in_poland_in_2021.pdf

Sample of work permits in Poland, 75% is for Ukrainans.
Suprise, 75 % of the work permits in Poland is for military aged males.

Means at least 1 but more likelly 1.5 million ukrainan miliatary aged male is in Poland.Whops.

And it is JUST Poland and nothing else Russia, Belorus, leftover of EU and UK not considered.

Should be interesting if you can pull same real analysis, using up the number of refugees and so on, example in the UK for the Ukrainan refugee program 20k military age male vida was issued in last year. But this is only one propgram.

Would be more benefical that to present a weak logic based on partial or bad information.

Two deadly instances of friendly fire by Ukrainian forces. Makes you wonder how many of their claimed kills are of their side. These are reported from @milchronicles at Telegram. Machine translated.

The Armed Forces lost two reconnaissance platoons in one site due to the fire of their own artillery: details

On February 7, between the villages of Orekhovo-Vasilevka and Berkhovka in the Bakhmut district, a reconnaissance group of the 93rd separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces was destroyed by fire of Ukrainian artillery. According to the Military Chronicle, the unit received orders to mine approaches to the Artyomovsk highway — Slavyansk, but did not have time to complete the combat task.

The platoon movement was noticed by a Ukrainian drone, and in the unit mistakenly accepted for the enemy sabotage group, fire from howitzers of 152 mm caliber was opened. According to preliminary data, the reconnaissance platoon, adopted for the sabotage group of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, was fired at by the 62nd howitzer Division of the 45th artillery brigade of the Armed Forces from positions between the settlements of Privolje and Bondarnoye.

Ten people, including the platoon commander, died on the spot, the rest were evacuated by a search and rescue team in civilian ambulances who took the wounded from Artemovsk to the fortified area of the Armed Forces in the Watch Yara.

A week later, on February 14, 2 km from the site of the death of a group of Ukrainian intelligence officers of the 93rd brigade, another reconnaissance platoon of the 93rd OMB, after mining the road, again came under artillery fire. Shooting on the sports section of the Artyomovsk highway — Slavyansk group that was released in the area of the disputed section of the 43rd artillery brigade of the Armed Forces from positions between the villages of Orekhovo-Vasilevka and Novomarkovo. The reconnaissance group was destroyed at the exit from positions left due to the fire of Russian artillery.

As a result of the second « friendly » fire, 12 were killed and eight Ukrainian soldiers were seriously injured.


The Armed Forces mistakenly blew up the infantry fighting vehicle with wounded national guards in Artyomovsk: details

On February 12, in the area of the T-0504 highway between Artyomovsky ( Bakhmut ) and the Watch Yar, the unit of the 53rd mechanized brigade destroyed two infantry fighting vehicles Pbv-501 ( analogue of the Soviet BMP-1 ), inside of which were at least 15 wounded servicemen of the 4th operational brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine.

According to the Military Chronicle, crews of armored personnel carriers took away wounded Ukrainian soldiers in the area of the village of Belaya Gora, but could not bring them to doctors a few kilometers from the front line.

After the start of movement along one route, the BMP crews came under fire from the artillery of the RF Armed Forces, were forced to turn onto the road in the « gray zone », located near the front line, and ceased to get in touch.

When entering the village of Stupochki, BMPs were mistaken for the breakthrough of the sabotage group of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and came under heavy fire from units of the 53rd OMB and the 24th battalion « Aydar ».

According to preliminary data, all the wounded, who were in two Pbv-501 armored vehicles, died. The fate of the BMP crews is currently unknown.

FriedButter said:

Legion is part of the French Army and the Gurkhas is more of a group of people from a certain region. Neither falls into the PWC category.



The minimum for mobilized troops is $2700-2800 per month for the Russians. Contract soldiers are likely paid higher. Wagner was like $3000-5000 per month depending on source with one saying up to $10,000 but that was likely a very specific position. News reports do say that both the Russians and Wagner offer bonuses as well.

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If to believe Topaz and other Russians who fight on the lines, main difference is injury pay, compensations and lack of mil pension if you get “decomissioned”
Pay for non-specialised soldier is not that much different

And we have now the first photo proof of the action of the Russian Army new T-90M in the frontlines of Ukraine were it has encounter the Javelin missile and for the Russian tank it didn't go well !!!!

And the latest news from today is that the Storm Shadow Missile will go to Ukraine as UK military assistance to the Ukrainian Air Force .

redion said:

And we have now the first photo proof of the action of the Russian Army new T-90M in the frontlines of Ukraine were it has encounter the Javelin missile and for the Russian tank it didn't go well !!!!

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Unless they have Iron Fist or similar APS, most tanks can't deal with top attack missiles, from the Leo to the Abrams, even those with Trophy. And we have had plenty of videos of T-90M in combat particularly around Bakhmut, I'm actually surprised it took this long for a Javelin to show up considering the hype.

redion said:

And the latest news from today is that the Storm Shadow Missile will go to Ukraine as UK military assistance to the Ukrainian Air Force .

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And under what are they going to hang them?. Gonna jury rig more MiG-29's considering the weight limit of the pylons of the early MiGs since its already bigger and heavier than the planes external fuel tanks as it is?

UK's Typhoon Tranche 1 can't carry them either.

On the other hand

Also again confirms the UK will train Ukrainian pilots to NATO standards.

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If its a crash course on flying western planes, then it isn't to NATO standards, you can't have both which is what makes me think these statements is just bunch of hot air for the time being.

sheogorath said:

If its a crash course on flying western planes, then it isn't to NATO standards, you can't have both which is what makes me think these statements is just bunch of hot air for the time being.

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Depends in which NATO standard maybe. US-NATO would mean world class with 100-120hrs flight time per year at least, UK level would be a lot less. Whereas Norway or Baltic standard likely means "they know how to take off and land".