The War in the Ukraine

MarKoz81 said:

On that:

This is one of the unexpected factors in this war. Initially morale was a big worry but after the invasion began more people returned to fight than fled the country. There was a consistent net inflow of men despite a very clear flight taking place as well. While there was a period of chaos and panic - especially during the first days when the outcome of Russian operation was unclear - after the first few weeks Ukrainian military began turning away people who haven't served or had no military experience. They can afford to do it even with the casualties of the conflict which now are around 100k because well over a million people reported for military duty.

This is male population pyramid for Russia and Ukraine:

View attachment 107418

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Those numbers are outdated and predate the invasion. Russia has gained several million new Russians by conquering Ukrainian territory and through refugees, Ukraine has lost millions through emigration.

I agree that even if we take the highest estimates casualties numbers from both sides it's unlikely to change much in demographic terms. Higher numbers were lost in both world wars and all nations recovered.

There are a couple reasons I think the Ukraine is doomed if this war continues as long as I expect it to.
1. Refugee crisis. It's mainly younger Ukrainians leaving for western Europe and Russia. While some Russians may be leaving Russia, they at least will have a country to return to that hasn't been devastated by war. I think we'll see as many Ukrainians go back to Ukraine as we saw Syrians go back to Syria.
2. Fertility rate. The Ukraine's fertility rate was already one of the lowest in the world. Using WW1 as a comparison, crude birth rates of France and Germany dropped by half in the peak years of the war.
France (I've highlighted the CBR ‰):

The Ukraine will break South Korea's record if the war lasts a few years.

I don't expect Russia's birth rate to change much as mobilisation has been limited to reservists.

3. Unlike France and Germany 100 years ago the Ukraine's population pyramid is fundamentally flawed, it was close to giving way anyway (as is Russia's). Since this war has a relatively low civilian casualty rate, it will be the 18-49 group that will be most affected.

@MarkKoz81

Introduced Ukrainians to your assessment of the yu, which the yu considers
close to reality. But only close, for example the 59th Brigade had a tank battalion before the war.

Assault detachments of PMC "Wagner" are advancing with fighting in Paraskovievka on the outskirts of Artyomovsk, eliminating the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
iz.ru were the first to visit the outskirts of the newly liberated village, where heavy fighting continues.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the direction of artyomovsk, Russian troops are hitting the Armed Forces of Ukraine with mortars and artillery on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in areas with more than 20 settlements, among them - the disputed, Vyemka, Razdolovka, Fedorovka, Vasyukovka, Belogorovka, Paraskovievka, Artemovsk, Kleshcheevka, Belogorovka ivanovskoye, chasov Yar, stupochki, predtechino and kurdyumovka


Izvestia military commander Dmitry Astrakhan.



Tank footage
lancet attacked Ukrainian tank, and when the tank crew extinguished the fire,another lancet was sent

British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, amid Kiev’s claims that they were almost out of ammunition, urged Ukrainian troops to be more accurate in order to spend less shells.


Representative of the operational command "South" Natalia Gumenyuk says that Ukraine there is a need for a mobilization resource but now there is a drop in enthusiasm among people of military age.

baykalov said:

British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, amid Kiev’s claims that they were almost out of ammunition, urged Ukrainian troops to be more accurate in order to spend less shells.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626609564291325952

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Maybe it's just more weapon begging... but if it's the case, Donetsk is certainly not a priority target but they continue to spend shell on it each day...

Ukrainian Deputy PM is reportedly calling for civilians to evacuate Bakhmut immediately which is estimated to be 6000 says him.

Interesting there is still that many civilians who are staying in Bakhmut. Given the increasing intensity. I wonder where they are still obtaining the basic necessities given that the battle will likely go on for at least a few more weeks.

Atomicfrog said:

Maybe it's just more weapon begging... but if it's the case, Donetsk is certainly not a priority target but they continue to spend shell on it each day...

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They did plunder Israeli and South Korean stockpiles for artillery shells. There was also an ammunition shortage in the US (at least on the retail side) 1-2 years ago during the pandemic.

Atomicfrog said:

Maybe it's just more weapon begging... but if it's the case, Donetsk is certainly not a priority target but they continue to spend shell on it each day...

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"Bakhmut will be held, and those who complain about the high price and sacrifice should not forget that if we retreat, another city will become a new Bakhmut,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba.

Abominable said:

We're starting to see signs of the end of western support of the Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1625144341613125632

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Austria is a neutral country (non-NATO), and there is a concerted Western propaganda campaign to shame Austria into providing more aid beyond humanitarian and non-lethal aid. You should be happy Neutral Austria isn't training Ukrainians on Leopard tanks.

The soldiers of PMC "Wagner" captured Paraskovievka

The entire paraskoveevka settlement is under the control of subdivisions of the Wagner PMC. Despite the siege of ammunition, despite heavy losses and bloody battles, the guys completely occupied the territory of paraskuvivka. Thank them! Heroes! "Said E. Prigogine.

One of the recent click-baity forbes articles


It calculates it Ukraine has lost 50% of its active T-64 fleet, which can't be replaced as there are not many foreign users of the type thus a switch should be made to more "sustainable" western types.

From then on assumes that the T-80's is a development of the T-64 and seems to think the T-64BV is a new variant capable of beating even the T-90M and throws numbers around like crazy including 500 captured tanks by the Ukranians.