The War in the Ukraine

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
May be not hundreds, more like dozens. But unfortunately still this was a slaughter.

Dozens dead in Ukrainian strike on Russian troops – Moscow​


More than 60 Russian troops have been killed by a Ukrainian missile strike, Moscow confirmed on Monday. The bombardment hit a temporary housing area used by the Russian forces in Donbass.

The facility in the city of Makeyevka in Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic was targeted by six missiles from US-supplied HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, the Defense ministry said. Two projectiles were intercepted by air defenses, but four made it through, the statement added.

"As a result of a strike by four missiles with high-explosive warheads on a temporary deployment point, 63 Russian servicemen were killed,” Defense Ministry spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov said during a briefing.

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They do also commonly report on such slaughters of Ukrainians. One either trusts it all or trusts it nothing. I'm more erring on the side of nothing, unless there are signs of withdrawal, evidence of battlegrounds etc.

It is what it is, individual battles are taking place over Bakhmut and such battles can realistically easily cause dozens of losses in each round of firing to each side. The most important metric of success or non success is how the battle will play out, it seems here that it will be the Stalingrad of this war as both sides committed massive forces in the area. But the real question is, who will be the one that overcommitted here and lost, and who will be the equivalent of the Soviets?

Probably in some weeks we will know. Especially if the ground freezes over making things less favorable towards stalemate.

If the US did the 2003 invasion with the same level of p*ssyfooting and incompetence that the Russians have so far exhibited, then the Americans could have never occupied us not even in a million years.

As long as Russia doesn't change it's ways then Russia and it's future are F'ed.
Forget about Ukraine becoming another Afghanistan, if the Russians continue like this then this will be worse than Afghanistan.

Had they done war the right way from the beginning (ie: without mercy) then things would have been much easier for Russia.

But now it will be much more difficult, now they have to go all out, and by that I mean martial law, no one is allowed to leave. call up all the reserve, call up 2 million men or more, train them for some months and change the rules of engagement so that if there is a building with ten kids in it but one AFU soldier on top of it then you give that soldier a warning to withdraw and if he refuses to withdraw then the blood of the children are on his hands so you raze that building to the ground. that is how you win wars. The Americans can kill half a million kids with sanction and after that say it's worth it, as sad as it is to say but that is the correct way to do war. If you don't want to kill people then don't do war in the first place.
The only other alternative to that (that is other than losing) would be to nuke Ukraine.
You don't win wars by ruthlessness but by skill. You can oppress the helpless with ruthlessness but it doesn't win real wars. Iraq was a Guangdong KMT level enemy, corrupt to the bone so you can easily exploit them on the intelligence level, no realistic fighting military to speak of due to factionalized politics.

When Soviets crushed the Germans they didn't need much ruthlessness against German civilian. Only encircling the battle formation of Germans. Same when China liberated North Korea from America or when the PLA easily routed the KMT, there was no need to wantonly slay civilians or PoWs.

The biggest factor is that Russia lacks skill to outmaneuver the enemy comprehensively. This can most likely be pinned on an non innovative army leadership, more motivated by the arms industry and their own interests than by professional national security concerns. That type of weakness is common to states organized similarly to Russia. But this is also something Russia itself likely has come to understand and plan around, so it is not playing ambitiously, knowing the conflict can economy wise be sustained for years and Russia lacks the skill to end it with swift planning anyways.

Besides that, Russia itself also likely plans that NATO can get involved at any point and as such it seeks to avoid overextending and causing encirclements in the worst case should it happen.
 

Kich

Junior Member
Registered Member
I stopped following this war after Russia took Severodonetsk thinking the flood gates had opened for them.
But considering they started this war with only 200K troops, they couldn't go on forever. And their arrogance has come back to hunt them.

Ukraine took advantage of their pause and now this war is in a serious stalemate after almost a year.

Is it safe to say that Russia's incompetence is in full display as well as the lack of funding for their military. This war would be over if they had air superiority, but they don't because they can't fund their air force.

War is always fought by bullets and wallets. Russia is facing the combined might of the currency printing press of the EU and US, but it doesn't help them when Russia themselves had always been corrupt to begin with.

Anyway I don't know who will come on top anymore in this, but it doesn't matter in the long run since this war started the change towards a new monetary world order that will shape this world for the next 50 years.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Is it safe to say that Russia's incompetence is in full display as well as the lack of funding for their military. This war would be over if they had air superiority, but they don't because they can't fund their air force.
It took years or good part of decade to crush ISIS in flat desert. do you think Ruaf can do it in less than a year when there is external sensors notification along with forests. than add risk aversion of not even flying over Western Ukraine.
ultimately they will use it more effectively but that has some time.
 

SolarWarden

Junior Member
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It took years or good part of decade to crush ISIS in flat desert. do you think Ruaf can do it in less than a year when there is external sensors notification along with forests. than add risk aversion of not even flying over Western Ukraine.
ultimately they will use it more effectively but that has some time.
This comparison is flawed or to sound cliche it's like comparing apples to oranges. ISIS had not state it is an ideology/religious movement Ukraine is a country with a "real military" with mechanize armored battalions something that Russian/Moscow hasn't fought since WW2. Post WW2 Russian/Moscow's wars have been insurgency wars, uprisings, separatist and terrorist actions. The 08 Georgian war was as close you can get to an actual war against another nations government and military however Georgia had no military and even then Russia performance was mediocre.

This is just one of many reasons why Russia is doing so bad in Ukraine. Russia also lacks allies and friends to hold meaningful military exercises the way US does. When Russia and China have joint-exercises they hold back a lot of their high-tech stuff as in using their weapon system to their full potential that is not what happens when US holds Red flag and Naval maneuvers with NATO nations or SoKo, Japan and Australia.

Russia on paper should have never been this bad from the start against a nation just across their border that uses Soviet era equipment that Russia is more than familiar with. There's just no excuse for such performance.
 

pmc

Major
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This comparison is flawed or to sound cliche it's like comparing apples to oranges. ISIS had not state it is an ideology/religious movement Ukraine is a country with a "real military" with mechanize armored battalions something that Russian/Moscow hasn't fought since WW2. Post WW2 Russian/Moscow's wars have been insurgency wars, uprisings, separatist and terrorist actions. The 08 Georgian war was as close you can get to an actual war against another nations government and military however Georgia had no military and even then Russia performance was mediocre.

This is just one of many reasons why Russia is doing so bad in Ukraine. Russia also lacks allies and friends to hold meaningful military exercises the way US does. When Russia and China have joint-exercises they hold back a lot of their high-tech stuff as in using their weapon system to their full potential that is not what happens when US holds Red flag and Naval maneuvers with NATO nations or SoKo, Japan and Australia.

Russia on paper should have never been this bad from the start against a nation just across their border that uses Soviet era equipment that Russia is more than familiar with. There's just no excuse for such performance.
I am not sure why you think they doing badly. this what should be expected when airpower is much sparingly used to remove fortification. they capture more prisoners that show effectiveness of attack. I am not basing this on news media. there is Taiwanese girl went to Kiev and put the details. i will not put link for her privacy.
its the suspense of attack that raise the cost of fighting. Manpads, ATGMS backed by AWACS is much harder to fight as convoys can easily be spotted. Ukraine is facing cruise missile based on 40 years old tech and hardly it can intercept them despite all the sensors support. they are improving this capability with time.
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Commander of Long-Range Aviation of the Russian Aerospace and Aerospace Forces, said that aircraft carrying strategic missiles will participate in the special military operation zone in 2023​

 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Strelkov lol

Even the twitter bots on that thread doubt him as a source. He has a vested interest in shit talking as much as possible because he's mad that he got thrown out of command in the war.

The likes of Strelkov (as are other Russian telegram) also talk about 1000+ Ukranian dead in those villages near Bakhmut the last few days but I guess for the pro Ukranian, he is not a reliable source when he is talking about those losses...

Personally if I don't see pictures/evidence showing field hospitals overloaded I have a hard time believing either side is taking suddenly signficant casualties.

Its just a grind with a destroyed building here and there, some random footage of grenades from both side dropping by drone. Russians shooting krasnopol at lone vehicles. Footage of firefight between light infanteries etc. I would need more evidence than that for sensational claims about hundreds or thousands dead on either side.

It takes awhile after the actual battle to be able to see the results. Too much propaganda and random bullshit circulating. Let us remember for example when Ukraine suicide bombed the Kerch bridge, they had staged videos ready to go showing missiles that were taken like gospel on Twitter. Nothing can be trusted, especially not the twitterites.
You can actually go to Strelkov's telegram channel to see what he said. Nowhere does he say hundreds have died, the twitter post is making it up.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
French TV reporter in Druzhkovka went live seconds before the arena was blown up behind him, on the TMC channel. Dramatic footage. Audience stunned.

The building that was hit is in flames. It is a large, sports center type structure.

A Ukrainian military airfield covered by a missile arrival, burning buildings and several Mig-29 fighters damaged by explosions were caught in the frame.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
The 08 Georgian war was as close you can get to an actual war against another nations government and military however Georgia had no military and even then Russia performance was mediocre.
In that war Russia had worse equipment than Georgia for the most part. Georgia had been pumped by the US for a long time. Georgian T-72 tanks had thermals and battle management system (T-72 SIM 1), their troops had encrypted radios, and they had put their large caliber Soviet era artillery into service. Russia at best had the T-72BA and most often it was the T-72B and T-72A. Georgia had also been trained by NATO and were part of missions abroad for several years. What Georgia did not have was the numbers and the troops lacked the will to fight. Russia also had a lot more air power even if most of it was Soviet era. A lot of the Soviet era equipment Russia used broke down while going to its destination. After that conflict Russia invested a huge amount of money into modernization and new weapon systems.

Compare the infantry equipment of the Russian troops on the left with the Georgian troops on the right.
jIl47rV.png


Even then Georgia lasted like two weeks against Russia. So I do not know what is your problem.

Russia on paper should have never been this bad from the start against a nation just across their border that uses Soviet era equipment that Russia is more than familiar with. There's just no excuse for such performance.
Ukraine was in the USSR border so they had way more military equipment in it than other areas of the USSR. And much of it was modernized. They have been modernizing their equipment for 8 years. They had several hundreds of upgraded T-64 and T-72 tanks with thermal sights, encrypted radios, and battlefield management system. Try reading about T-64 mod. 2016. A lot of their radars and air defense systems had their electronics upgraded. And now the US and its allies dumped quite a lot of their own equipment into Ukraine.
Ukraine had more tanks than most countries in NATO with the exception of the US and Turkey. They were also upgrading like 200+ tanks a year at Kharkiv and Lviv. So had Russia waited longer it would have been that much harder. Given Ukraine had thousands of Soviet era tanks on stock. They also had several modern infantry vehicles with thermals like the BTR-4, upgraded MLRS like Vilkha, etc.
 
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SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
I am not sure why you think they doing badly. this what should be expected when airpower is much sparingly used to remove fortification.


Russian military is known for their land and air capabilities... at least on paper that is what they were known for. It's conventional power status was known for that. Russia deceived us and themselves with false capabilities. They love to put on these parades showing their latest and greatest equipment and weapon systems. They love to show us how their latest equipment and weapon systems does during drills and exercises making us and themselves believe that they are a conventional power but this war truly revealed the Emperor has no clothes... cliche I know but on point. Russian air force should have had air supremacy over Ukraine by the third week of this war especially against a Ukrainian air force with outdated fighters that numbered 2 maybe 3 dozen including their outdated IADS. All that should have been gone by now.

Russia learned nothing from Desert Storm unlike China. Russia should have spent at least 2 weeks of nothing but SEAD/DEAD and Air Interdiction almost all of it done at night with PGMs... I mean this is 2022/23 after all night vision and PGMs should have been the norm for the Russian air force since it was considered on paper top 4-5 air force in the world.
 
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