Orlans have been very effective throughout the war. Even when they are taken down they are cheap enough to be replaced with mass production. An Orlan isn't bigger than a kamikaze drone and are packed and assembled in kits in the field. The big difference for Orlans is that the Orlan 10 now flies higher making them less detectable by sound and sight, better optics from a long distance, thermal imaging, laser guidance for guided rounds. In addition they are supplemented by a new drone, the Orlan 30.
The thing about the Forpost is they are more expensive and longer ranged. Sightings of their attacks means costs of production may have been lowered to make them more expendable, while deteriorating air defenses allow them to operate more freely, they might be flying higher to evade attacks. Or a combination of these factors at work. Even when attacked, it will only invite a kamikaze drone into the SAM unit, so the SAMs may not engage at all, or save themselves for a juicier target. It's possible that the Forposts themselves are being used as SAM bait, given that Orlans are too cheap and replenishable to waste precious SAMs on.
Was going to post this as a separate post anyway.
Updates from @milchronicles.
Ukrainian Armed Forces are retreating to the outskirts of Marinka with heavy losses: details
Since December 20, units of the 79th Air Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, occupying positions in the western part of the city, have suffered heavy losses in Marinka.
During the counter-battery fight, serious damage was inflicted on the howitzer artillery battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with D-30 guns of 122 mm caliber.
According to the Military Chronicle, were recorded in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th airborne assault battalions of the 79th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reconnaissance and airborne and tank companies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The number of dead and seriously wounded in these units since December 15 is estimated at the level of 350 to 460 people. Due to serious losses, the brigade had to be urgently reinforced with mobilized from the Nikolaev and Kherson regions, as well as to send a security company and engineering units retrained as attack aircraft to the line of clashes.
According to the Military Chronicle, the key reason for the heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Marinka was the activity of artillery and armored vehicles of the RF Armed Forces. The T-72B3 tanks are rapidly advancing towards the western outskirts of the city with the support of drones, which allows the crews to scout dangerous positions and fire at firing points in buildings with minimal risk.
According to the radio intercepts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the units of the 79th Airborne Infantry Battalion recorded a shortage of communications and surveillance equipment, ammunition for machine guns and machine guns and means for dressing wounds, as well as quadrocopters, with the help of which reconnaissance of the positions of the RF Armed Forces was carried out. Also, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine complain about an acute shortage of anti-tank weapons - there are not enough grenade launchers and ammunition for them.
Due to the rapid deterioration of the tactical situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since the evening of December 23, the remaining forces have been accumulating on the western outskirts of Maryinka in the area of Shakhtyorskaya and Poligraficheskaya streets, where the field headquarters is gradually transferred from the central fortified area.
In case of failure at the last line of defense, the units of the Ukrainian army plan to retreat to reserve positions to the fortified area in the area of the Maryinsky dam, where the batteries of the BM-21 Grad complexes were previously located. However, control over the city in this case will be completely lost.
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