The War in the Ukraine

CrazyHorse

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yet somehow Shaheds get through and damage the Saudi oil fields.
Then again, ukr drones seem to be able to strike a nuclear bomber base. Clearly these small drones are indistinguishable from background noise on most radars.
 

CrazyHorse

Junior Member
Registered Member
More important than anything is the myth of invincibility of western equipment. That myth is being utterly shattered. M777, M113, PZH-2000, Krab, etc. are proving to be fragile and weak garage queens with little potential for use in high intensity conflict. The only equipment being proven to work somewhat is HIMARS backed by the US ISR network which we've always known would somewhat work.
What do you mean by this? Who says that an SPH would have any sort of armour? How are these useless in a high intensity conflict? Does ancient Soviet artillery somehow not melt down when you fire hundreds of rounds an hour?
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
I wouldn't over emphasis the importance of HIMARS. HIMARS are just MLRS, with accurate GPS guidance. Russia have those too, they are call BM30 andTornado MLRS, I believe the Russian range is 50? to 200km? HIMAR range is like 80 to 90km? I mean, maybe HIMARS can be accurate to like 1 to 2 meters, while the Russian rockets are only accurate (GLONASS) to maybe 10-20 meters? I wasn't able to find reliable data on the CES of Russian rockets.

HIMAR have about 100kg or less explosive, this is a decent amount of explosive. while the Russian have warhead of 250kg. With a more accurate weapon, you can use a smaller warhead. Less accuracy need bigger warhead. All in all, Russian MLRS are designed to do achieve the same or similar end result as nato MLRS. Whether it's with more accurate shots, or bigger boom.

If Ukraine is destroying Russia with 40 or less HIMAR. What about the over 100 long range MLRS Russians have? They just sit and look pretty?

My understanding is that GPS is about 3.5 to 5 meters, Glonass from 4.5 to 7 meters, Beidou is 2 to 5 meters and Galileo to 1 meter. But it doesn't matter because anything can tap on to their civilian use frequency. Meaning it's possible that a device can use all four, like most of your Chinese branded smartphones.

Russian Uragan (Hurricane) and Smerch (Tornado) are both busy. Usual targets are armor and troops concentrations, ammo and fuel depots, headquarters, barracks, repair centers, bridges and other stuff. But the most important use is counterbattery, which is to kill other artillery and MLRS units.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I wouldn't over emphasis the importance of HIMARS. HIMARS are just MLRS, with accurate GPS guidance. Russia have those too, they are call BM30 andTornado MLRS, I believe the Russian range is 50? to 200km? HIMAR range is like 80 to 90km? I mean, maybe HIMARS can be accurate to like 1 to 2 meters, while the Russian rockets are only accurate (GLONASS) to maybe 10-20 meters? I wasn't able to find reliable data on the CES of Russian rockets.

HIMAR have about 100kg or less explosive, this is a decent amount of explosive. while the Russian have warhead of 250kg. With a more accurate weapon, you can use a smaller warhead. Less accuracy need bigger warhead. All in all, Russian MLRS are designed to do achieve the same or similar end result as nato MLRS. Whether it's with more accurate shots, or bigger boom.

If Ukraine is destroying Russia with 40 or less HIMAR. What about the over 100 long range MLRS Russians have? They just sit and look pretty?
HIMARS seems to have a mobility advantage over the Tornados and BM30s. Not invincible, just an advantage.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Then again, ukr drones seem to be able to strike a nuclear bomber base. Clearly these small drones are indistinguishable from background noise on most radars.

Those are Chinese commercial drones that were used. Commercial drones are usually filtered out because they are generally considered non essential and only serve to distract if they appear on radar.

Plus the fact that Mugin 5 is actually a quadcopter with a fixed wing and a horizontal propeller. The drone has an unusual layout of having four vertical propellers like a quadcopter and a horizontal propeller like a plane. These vertical propellers play tricks on the doppler (you need a separate explanation why helicopter blades are an issue with Doppler which is tldr and distraction from the subject here).

Once you have decided this particular drone is now a threat you can add it's radar signature to your threat library. Pretty sure you can obtain a working Mugin 5 for your own examination or buy one from Chinese merchants.

Lately a massed attack of these drones were foiled by the Russians even if they have to waste an entire S-300 missile on a $10,000 drone. But at least it does mean the latest software upgrades to the ground systems are working.

These small drones are ultimately detectable and tractable. But because of their low cost and easy replaceability, they are also trolling defense systems to shoot them and expend their expensive missiles on cheap drones, leaving them ammo less when the cruise missiles come in or target baited to reveal their locations and get targeted by other drones. Or both. The Gerans, Lancets and Orlans, along with drones that are acting as datalink routers, appear to be working in unison in baiting Ukrainian radars and SAMs.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
wouldn't over emphasis the importance of HIMARS. HIMARS are just MLRS, with accurate GPS guidance. Russia have those too, they are call BM30 andTornado MLRS, I believe the Russian range is 50? to 200km? HIMAR range is like 80 to 90km?
The advantage besides the previously mentioned mobility, is that HIMARS can make use of NATO's extensive ISR assets. It cuts down reaction time in the kill chain, specially if it isn't really the Ukranians the ones operating them. What's limiting them right now, beside Russian AD figuring out how to spot GMLRS from the Grad decoys is the range which has reduced the amount of HVT they can hit with them and why they keep whinning about getting ATACMs

Had they been used on their own, at the discretion of the Ukranian commanders in the areas, the HIMARS would probably be gone by now.

Does ancient Soviet artillery somehow not melt down when you fire hundreds of rounds an hour?
It does, but it probably has a far higher threshold than western equipment or at least it can keep firing although with degraded performance, instead of blowing up.
 

CrazyHorse

Junior Member
Registered Member
The advantage besides the previously mentioned mobility, is that HIMARS can make use of NATO's extensive ISR assets. It cuts down reaction time in the kill chain, specially if it isn't really the Ukranians the ones operating them. What's limiting them right now, beside Russian AD figuring out how to spot GMLRS from the Grad decoys is the range which has reduced the amount of HVT they can hit with them and why they keep whinning about getting ATACMs

Had they been used on their own, at the discretion of the Ukranian commanders in the areas, the HIMARS would probably be gone by now.


It does, but it probably has a far higher threshold than western equipment or at least it can keep firing although with degraded performance, instead of blowing up.
Sounds like you’re just making assumptions.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Suffering of civilians is a normal part of total war. The stated goal of Ukraine is the total disintegration of Russia, thus it is a total war to the death, loser gets annihilated. Only one will survive, and in terms of attacking Ukrainian infrastructure, economy and demographics, Russia is winning by a landslide.

Ukraine has disadvantages in artillery and armor? Sucks for them. they have the advantage in manpower 900k to 400k, why doesn't that even out? Yet despite this massive numerical advantage they are still unable to stop Russia from making their country look like Fallout. Meanwhile Russian citizens live in relative luxury and the war is just something happening "over there".
I would say it is a stalemate now. We all expected given Russia's technological and numerical superiority that Ukraine infrastructure, economy, and demographics will be more negative than Russia's, but Russia has yet to conquer all of Donbass, not even remotely close to securing neutrality promise from Ukraine. So a fair and unbiased interpretation is it is a stalemate now, yet hopefully the winter offensive would bring more momentum back on Russia's side.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I would say it is a stalemate now. We all expected given Russia's technological and numerical superiority that Ukraine infrastructure, economy, and demographics will be more negative than Russia's, but Russia has yet to conquer all of Donbass, not even remotely close to securing neutrality promise from Ukraine. So a fair and unbiased interpretation is it is a stalemate now, yet hopefully the winter offensive would bring more momentum back on Russia's side.
It is a stalemate in terms of ground captured but not in terms of casualties. Trading lives for ground is regarded as the lowest form of tactics and is a classical mistake made by all fascists, ranging from Hitler's no retreat order to Imperial Japanese defense of isolated islands without surrender to Chiang Kai Shek celebrating "taking" of an abandoned Yan'an in 1947 while his forces were overextended, setting him up for his famous retrograde advance to Taiwan.

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存地失人,人地皆失;存人失地,人地皆存。

Keep land lose people, lose both. Keep people lose land, get both in the end.
Russia is following a sound attrition strategy, Ukraine is following the typical fascist no retreat strategy that often hastens collapse in the end.
 
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