If Ukraine is destroying Russia with 40 or less HIMAR. What about the over 100 long range MLRS Russians have? They just sit and look pretty?
"When amateurs discuss tactics professional discuss logistics."
Ukraine stopped "destroying Russia" with HIMARS around the time it conducted the offensive in September-October. Russia moved its assets outside of HIMARS range and that was one of the main reasons why the offensive succeeded.
The actual effect of HIMARS has relatively little to do with the system itself and more with the circumstances in which it was being used, specifically the manner in which Russian ground forces sustain combat operations and maintain frontline stability.
During the second phase of the invasion (after 8 April) Russia entered Ukraine with most of its field armies and army corps, each having an artillery brigade or regiment with two battalions of tube artillery and one battalion of eight BM-30 launchers. While not all assets were deployed to the front it gave Russia at least 12 MLRS brigades (96 BM-30) from armies which could support combat operations at any time.
Ukraine had only two brigades of BM-30 directly subordinate to the main command and while they nominally consisted of eight battalions total, it is difficult to tell how many BM-30 were operational, and how much ammunition was available. We know that Ukrainian-made GPS-guided 300mm Vilkha system had about 50 rockets available. We don't know how many BM-30 rockets were used during the chaotic first phase of Russian invasion (24 February - 7 April).
However both Russia and Ukraine had two units of tube (RU: 2x 152mm, UA: 1x 152mm, 1x 122mm) artillery and an unit of 18 BM-21 in each mechanized brigade. Ukraine had much larger stores of ammunition for those systems and they could also be supported by Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania and Finland which still used these systems extensively and manufactured ammunition. None of those countries however had or manufactured BM-27 or BM-30. BM-27 has comparable range to BM-21 so it doesn't play a tactical role
This created a fire boundary along the front where there would be relative equilibrium between 122mm rocket artillery and 152mm tube artillery and a Russian advantage in 300mm. That advantage gave Russia an effective firing range of 90km withou
t counter-battery risk while Ukraine had only 30-40km with counter-battery risk.
That fire boundary was mostly stable throughout the entire period of 8 April - 27 May and it also corresponded with the most intense fighting in the war including largest volume of artillery fire. That required logistical support which was laid out in a manner that
exploited Ukraine's inability to reach certain distances and volumes of fire with artillery.
8 April
27 May
6 September
First confirmed use of HIMARS is on 24 June. Because Russia air defense failed to intercept GMLRS - which is logical considering the divergent physical parameters of GMLRS and Russian air defenses which were not designed to counter such threat - and Russian air force failed to destroy HIMARS - which is logical as well Russian command made the decision to reorganize support and logistics extending distances etc. That process would greatly hamper Russia's ability to sustain frontlines and was responsible for the collapse of Kherson and Kharkiv fronts - where Russia couldn't sustain sufficient forces, it withdrew them creating weakpoints.
This process lasted for most of August but perhaps began already in July. While Russia was withdrawing gradually Ukraine was building up forces which resulted in the two successful counter-offensives. Ukraine pushed as far as it could before the lengthening of its own logistical lines and shortening of newly established Russian logistical lines began to influence results at the front.
A particular weakpoint was the Kherson front where for political reasons Russia maintained control of the west bank exposing its forces in the process. I'm of the opinion that the transfer of so many VDV units to the front in August was deliberate to use them as screening forces for the withdrawal of heavier ground force units. Witout the VDV Ukraine could exploit Russia's bad position and destroy units trapped at the west bank. VDV being better trained and properly staffed with personnel could hold off attack more effectively than skeleton ground force units. The way the Kherson front collapsed in early October suggests just that but I won't go into the details of it.
After the logistics was reorganized HIMARS no longer has the same effect because the targets are no longer within reach and in the open as they were in June - August/September. It's gone down to the point where the media don't even bother pushing their narratives because there's no point anymore.
I'm also of the opinion that the delivery of HIMARS was delayed on purpose to lead Russia into false sense of security. There was no reason why HIMARS couldn't be given in early May like M777 but the way media kept talking about HIMARS without decision from the WH suggested that there's political reluctance. Much like it's been done with ATACMS which was not given not because it would change too much but because it would change nothing - its cost/effect ratio is very high and there are not enough missiles to make an effect.
As always: There is no thing such as a Wunderwaffe just propaganda and marketing lies about them.
However propaganda and lies are highly emotional and mentally ill people who constitute 90% of online activity in this field latch on to those highly emotional narratives because of their emotional disorders. They talk about war because it allows them to manage their aggressive mental state, not because they have anything useful to say about war. (This is for example why football hooliganism and gang activity overlap so much - it's seeking for substitutes to manage aggression) That, and kids who have no business talking with adults onlie. Both groups parasitize the discourse about conflicts and turn it into their own personal delusion and unfortunately social media made it almost inescapable to the point where you can't have a meaningful discussion with others who share interest in military matters because keyboard warriors take over everything like an infection. The more excited they are the more they interact, the more they interact the more excited they are. Positive feedback loop for them, negative feedback loop for everyone else.
