what gives you the confidence that they would do any better against a modern Western system?
That's the thing, the Patriot isn't that modern, at least not particularly the type the Ukrainians will receive.
If Ukraine receives the PAAC-4 with 250km range Stunner missiles, which is what the formidable David's Sling uses, Russia will be in for a lot of hurt.
Have you missed every Israeli comunique stating that they won't be delivering anything to Ukraine?. Then there is the fact that the PAAC-4 never moved forward because they didn't secure the funding after Poland didn't pick the system for its air defence. So we might as well talk about the Ukranians receiving F-35's.
As has been the the trend with the majority of deliveries of used equipment from western stocks, it is likely they will receive PAC-2 at best, PAC-1 if there is any left at worst.
Only the PAC-3 has network capablity and they are a no go because as mentioned before, they are key against China in the pacific.While the Patriot comes with a single organic radar, it has demonstrated network centric capability with missile cuing by external radars like AN/TPY-2.
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