The War in the Ukraine

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
The concern with Patriot tho is that they can threaten Russian operations in Black Sea and to some extent make AEW patrol against drone in Crimea bit difficult.
The Ukranan S-300 more capable than the patriot.

The intrduction of it means the ukranain air deffence seriously degraded.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Ukranan S-300 more capable than the patriot.

The intrduction of it means the ukranain air deffence seriously degraded.
If Russia was not able to deal with weapon systems of its own design, what gives you the confidence that they would do any better against a modern Western system?

If Ukraine receives the PAAC-4 with 250km range Stunner missiles, which is what the formidable David's Sling uses, Russia will be in for a lot of hurt. Add to that the AN/MPQ-65A GaN AESA and Russia will be up against a qualitatively different threat. The only saving grace is that Ukraine will get just one battery.
 
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generalmeng

New Member
Registered Member
If Russia was not able to deal with weapon systems of its own design, what gives you the confidence that they would do any better against a modern Western system?

If Ukraine receives the PAAC-4 with 250km range Stunner missiles, which is what the formidable David's Sling uses, Russia will be in for a lot of hurt. Add to that the AN/MPQ-65A GaN AESA and Russia will be up against a qualitatively different threat. The only saving grace is that Ukraine will get just one battery.
250km is the max possible range. Usually this imply the target is not maneuvering, and traveling directly at the missile in a straight line at max March speed (fat tu 95 bomber). The practical range is not 250km, likely 100km or even less. Keep in mind the missile is traveling in the most dense air, against gravity, from complete stop, VS a jet in less dense air, with a high speed already, and highly maneuverable. Patriot will likely only cover Kiev, us won't be able to give enough to cover anything more than just Kiev.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
It was commented on Twitter that the US would only be delivering one Patriot battery in the near future. NATO has yet to train Ukrainian personnel to operate the Patriot and this battery will most likely be deployed in western Ukraine with a Polish crew.

From a Washington Post article:

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One battery is far from a panacea, but the Patriot air defense system could dampen Moscow’s apparent strategy to cripple Ukraine’s power grid and civilian infrastructure.

“We would like to get more Patriots,” Zelensky said. “We are in war, I am really sorry.”

The Patriot battery — with a strike range of roughly 20 to 100 miles — will not protect the entire country, but experts say it does show a strong commitment by the United States.

The Patriot system will fortify and improve the capability of Ukraine’s air defenses, filling in some gaps, Karako said. But the system has a limited range, will require training and must be supplemented by other defenses.

“The problem, of course, is the Russians are shooting a ton of missiles, and they are exhausting the supply of air defense interceptors,” Karako said.

How long will it take to train Ukrainians to use them?​

Ukrainian troops will need months of training to operate the Patriot system, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Wednesday, though the Pentagon is eyeing ways to compress some aspects of the training. The U.S. military typically assigns 90 troops to operate one Patriot battery.

Experts have said training under normal conditions would take about half a year. “This is a complex system to operate and maintain,” the defense official said.

The United States has about 15 Patriot battalions, many of them deployed in Europe and the Middle East, and the U.S. soldiers who operate these systems are already among the most frequently deployed Army units. U.S. troops will also have to train Ukrainian forces on how to use and maintain the system at a base in Germany.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
If Russia was not able to deal with weapon systems of its own design, what gives you the confidence that they would do any better against a modern Western system?

If Ukraine receives the PAAC-4 with 250km range Stunner missiles, which is what the formidable David's Sling uses, Russia will be in for a lot of hurt. Add to that the AN/MPQ-65A GaN AESA and Russia will be up against a qualitatively different threat. The only saving grace is that Ukraine will get just one battery.
You make the next assumptions, based on pure propaganda / marketing documentation:
1. USA could show better performance against the Ukrainan air defence.
2. The modern western systems superior to the improved soviet systems that Ukraine has
3. the long rangem missile will make difference
4. the GaN X band radar makes any difference in the system performance


Each of the above line needs a bit more analysis than a 5 line post.
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
If Ukraine receives the PAAC-4 with 250km range Stunner missiles, which is what the formidable David's Sling uses, Russia will be in for a lot of hurt. Add to that the AN/MPQ-65A GaN AESA and Russia will be up against a qualitatively different threat. The only saving grace is that Ukraine will get just one battery.

High altitude maybe, but well Performance against cruise missile will be of no different to S-300's Maybe bit worse as Patriot have no option for a Mast mounted radar ala 40V6M.

But are you sure tho they will get such late system instead of more modest AN/MPQ-53 and PAC-2 missile maybe a GEM-T one. ?
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
High altitude maybe, but well Performance against cruise missile will be of no different to S-300's Maybe bit worse as Patriot have no option for a Mast mounted radar ala 40V6M.

But are you sure tho they will get such late system instead of more modest AN/MPQ-53 and PAC-2 missile maybe a GEM-T one. ?
I am amazed by the confidence of everyone about the Patiot.

Basic performance differences :
-patriot use hot launch, wiht angled launcher, S-300 use cold launch, with veritcal launcher. Means the S-300 can react faster and in 360 degree without performance degradation.
-Patriot use single radar on X band for all function, S-300 use in the most basic configuration two radar, one S band for search and tracking an X band for illumination/targeting. And the radar cover 360 degree.

And we haven't covered the maturity / certification level of both system.
 

Hadoren

Junior Member
Registered Member
Has anyone read the recent New York Times piece on catastrophe that was the Russian invasion?

They got hold of several interesting documents and testimonies. Lots of blame deflection and feigned ignorance of course by the interviewees. Apparently people watching CNN were better informed about the looming Russian offensive than many influential people in Russia:

“But in Russia, even among those with access to Mr. Putin or his inner circle, almost no one thought that the president was seriously considering a full-scale invasion, people close to the Kremlin said. They were sure he was bluffing.

Mr. Remchukov, the newspaper editor, was one of them. As the chairman of the 2018 election campaign of Mayor Sergei S. Sobyanin of Moscow — Mr. Putin’s former chief of staff — he felt well-connected enough to happily announce to his wife a week before the invasion, “Lena, there won’t be a war!”

“Mr. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, insisted that he found out about the invasion only once it had begun. Likewise, Anton Vaino, Mr. Putin’s chief of staff, and Aleksei Gromov, Mr. Putin’s powerful media adviser, also said they did not know in advance, according to people who spoke to them about it.”

The best that senior aides could do was to try to read Mr. Putin’s body language. Some reported with concern that “he’s got this warlike twinkle in his eyes,” a person close to the Kremlin said.”

Source:
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I enjoy reading fanfiction as much as everybody else, but I want at least one cute magical girl.

The NYT could strengthen its fantasy by revealing how a faction of powerful magical girls - for an ultimately good cause of course, to improve their difficult lives - influenced Russian decision-making and even Putin himself to catalyze the war. That would make the story much better than the mundane Tom Clancy plot they have now.
 
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Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
You make the next assumptions, based on pure propaganda / marketing documentation:
1. USA could show better performance against the Ukrainan air defence.
2. The modern western systems superior to the improved soviet systems that Ukraine has
3. the long rangem missile will make difference
4. the GaN X band radar makes any difference in the system performance


Each of the above line needs a bit more analysis than a 5 line post.
Patriot’s MFR operates at C-band as a compromise for combining search/track/engage in a single radar.

Based on what I heard, Ukraine’s chief concern is effective ABM defense and that’s where PAC-3 should fit in nicely with up to 16 missiles per launcher. PAAC-4 is just speculation on my part.

While the Patriot comes with a single organic radar, it has demonstrated network centric capability with missile cuing by external radars like AN/TPY-2. The former, when placed in eastern Poland or the Baltics can see deep into Russia thanks to its near 2000km range, which is more than sufficient to track and engage SRBMs.

Starting with this year, the US is introducing a new 360 degree radar called LTAMDS to its Patriot battalions.

According to Missile Threat, Patriot has logged 177 intercepts of (ballistic) missiles in the Yemen war by September 2020:
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Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
It was commented on Twitter that the US would only be delivering one Patriot battery in the near future. NATO has yet to train Ukrainian personnel to operate the Patriot and this battery will most likely be deployed in western Ukraine with a Polish crew.

From a Washington Post article:

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They can donate the Patriot, but it may not be deployed right now in Ukraine, it could in theory be used as a training unit for Ukrainian officers until they complete Operation and Maintenance training on a Patriot. It is reported by Politico that the Ukrainians will be trained at a base in Fort Sill, Oklahoma, which according to sources is an appropriate base for training because most of the instructors and many simulators are based there.
 
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