Russia would not need to defend its own border with Ukraine north of Kharkov or the Belarussian border with Ukraine nearly as much. Border of Ukraine with the NATO aligned countries on its West is shorter than borders of Belarus and Russia with Ukraine.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Can't they go belarus -> zhytomyr -> vinnytsia -> moldova & tranistria(should be around half of the 930km) then move and surround Odessa?
That would pretty much create on huge cauldron on the west bank of the dnieper. Probably only doable after the eastern side has been cleaned up from Ukrainian forces..
The sudden snap readiness excerscise and increase of material deployed in Ukraine. Zaluzhnyi seem to think the offensive from the north will happen, with around 200.000 people but he is not sure of the date.
From the Ukrainians, who cannot be trusted. Today, the White House released a statement saying it does not believe the Russians are preparing a new offensive from Belarus.
I think, the Ukrainians want to get more weapons and that is why they are spreading these rumors.
In my opinion, until the Russians break the fortifications in Donbass, no other front will be opened. In this regard, a comment from the Russian Telegram channels, automatic translation:
How will the meat grinder in Bahmuth end?
Today, the Russian army is advancing at a rate of 2 km per week in the Bakhmut agglomeration. In any case, this is data provided by journalists of the German channel N-TV, working on the Ukrainian side.
Whatever the claims of the German media, the Russian soldiers are really in no hurry. And there are strategically important reasons for this, which the "musicians" successfully overcome through measured and confident actions.
First, the Russian military is conserving personnel and equipment, unlike the Zelensky regime.
Bakhmut (let's call it by its Ukrainian name here) is a strategically important transport hub, the control of which allows not only the formation of a powerful defensive fortress, but also a solid bridgehead for further offensives towards Krasny Liman, Kremennaya and Svatovo.
The routes to Gorlovka, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Konstantinovka and Seversk are also opening up. Even Ukraine's Western leaders acknowledge that the fall of Bakhmut would be a disaster for Zelensky and a real loss for the entire military campaign.
According to open data, more than 30,000 fighters from the Russian armed forces are involved in the Bakhmut operation. It is not known how many Ukrainian soldiers are currently defending Bakhmut.
It is known, however, that the number of AFU losses is off the scale. According to The Daily Telegraph, the number of Ukrainians killed and wounded in Bakhmut exceeds 10,000 according to the most conservative estimates.
Second, along with the systematic grinding down of the AFU's personnel reserves, ruthlessly transferred to Bakhmut from other fronts, Wagner inflicted colossal losses on Ukraine in equipment, especially Western equipment.
Over the past three-plus months, Russian troops have burned from 6 to 8 tank companies (84-112 tanks) of the 54th and 59th brigades.
Moreover, the Ukrainians admit that as a result of an acute shortage of ammunition, the impossibility of supplying ammunition due to energy problems, and the high-precision work of Russian counter-batteries, they were left without artillery.
After the capture of Bakhmut, similar prospects await the entire Donetsk-Kramator group of the AFU (the most powerful in the special military operation zone). Kiev will completely lose touch with it.
All communication routes will be under the full control of the Russian armed forces. For the main AFU grouping in the Donbass, this will be a death sentence that is not subject to "appeal".
Moreover, Western experts do not rule out the possibility that the defeat of the AFU in Bakhmut will sober the Western hawks. They will either refuse or minimize arms deliveries and financial injections to Ukraine. Zelensky will simply be rolled over.
So it is no exaggeration to say that the fate of the Ukrainian regime and the timing of Russia's victorious completion of the special military operation is being decided in Bakhmut.
The more Russian forces destroy Western weapons and the living force of the collective enemy, the more friendly the United States and Europe will become toward the Russian Federation.
I tracked down the original source. The rumor came from an interview Ukraine's top commander Valeriy Zaluzhny did with The Economist ()
However, reading the interview, it seems the media is exaggerating his comments. From the same interview, he also says an offensive from "Donbass", "Southern Direction" or "direction of Belarus" is likely. So basically, it can come from anywhere, but an offensive will happen.
Only in his last sentence (which all Western media is recycling/citing) does he drop this:
However, if you read the entire interview, the vast majority of the interview was describing how Ukrainian military was modernizing it's weapons, equipment, and training, but much more needs to be done. So within this context, I personally think this is more about exaggerating the Russian threat in order to gather more Western weapons, aid, financial support. As @kokole mentioned, they are spreading these rumors to make it seem like Kyiv can be conquered, maybe they can secure more weapons from West.
Even Ukrainian Newspapers are doubting the Kyiv offensive claim.
Note, this is a Ukrainian newspaper, doubting the claims of a Ukrainian top commander, about Russian offensive against Kyiv, which is quite interesting...
I don't see a 2nd front as likely unless things start to go really bad for Ukraine in the next weeks.
Which is effectively almost impossible for a layman to gauge, because we simply know nothing about Ukranian casualties.
It is somewhat interesting how tight the censorship among the west is, that it is near impossible to acquire a realistic estimate of Ukranian losses except from the Russians which is less than an ideal source.
Which is effectively almost impossible for a layman to gauge, because we simply know nothing about Ukranian casualties.
It is somewhat interesting how tight the censorship among the west is, that it is near impossible to acquire a realistic estimate of Ukranian losses except from the Russians which is less than an ideal source.
The Russians conduct reconnaissance before each massive strike and launch Shahids in advance - Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat talks about Russian army tactics:
The Russians study everything before a strike. From aerial and space reconnaissance to ground and agency reconnaissance. Even the social media and the social media pages. They're looking at the best route to take before a new strike," said Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat.
Poor weather is not a barrier to the Russian Armed Forces' strikes, and in good weather they can monitor the effects of their strikes.
The day before the Dec. 16 missile attack, the Russians used Iranian drones to identify the location of Ukrainian air defenses and correct the missile strike.
This is done to find out exactly where those Shahed were shot down, where exactly our air defense got them. Because they shoot down the Shahed at night and above all the anti-aircraft missile systems do it. They determine their location and then make adjustments for their missile attacks," said a representative of the Air Force.
In its commentary on yesterday's missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that decoys were used during the strike to deceive Ukrainian air defense. At the same time, positions were opened and four radar stations of the Ukrainian S-300 air defense systems in the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions were destroyed.
It is interesting that the destruction of four radar stations mentioned by the Russian defense department coincides with the data of the Ukrainian General Staff, which in its report yesterday indicated the use of four Kh-59 and Kh-31P aircraft missiles. If the situation described by the military of both sides really took place, then we can make a bold assumption about the beginning of the process of suppression and destruction of Ukrainian air defense systems during long-range missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine.
We have repeatedly written about the prospects and the need for fire impact on the Ukrainian air defense system in our publications, recently Rybar spoke about this topic at length. We hope that with these strikes the beginning of this time-consuming and important process was nevertheless laid.
The Russians study everything before a strike. From aerial and space reconnaissance to ground and agency reconnaissance. Even the social media and the social media pages. They're looking at the best route to take before a new strike," said Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat.Poor weather is not a barrier to the Russian Armed Forces' strikes, and in good weather they can monitor the effects of their strikes. The day before the Dec. 16 missile attack, the Russians used Iranian drones to identify the location of Ukrainian air defenses and correct the missile strike.This is done to find out exactly where those Shahed were shot down, where exactly our air defense got them. Because they shoot down the Shahed at night and above all the anti-aircraft missile systems do it. They determine their location and then make adjustments for their missile attacks," said a representative of the Air Force.In its commentary on yesterday's missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that decoys were used during the strike to deceive Ukrainian air defense. At the same time, positions were opened and four radar stations of the Ukrainian S-300 air defense systems in the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions were destroyed.
It is interesting that the destruction of four radar stations mentioned by the Russian defense department coincides with the data of the Ukrainian General Staff, which in its report yesterday indicated the use of four Kh-59 and Kh-31P aircraft missiles. If the situation described by the military of both sides really took place, then we can make a bold assumption about the beginning of the process of suppression and destruction of Ukrainian air defense systems during long-range missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine.
We have repeatedly written about the prospects and the need for fire impact on the Ukrainian air defense system in our publications, recently Rybar spoke about this topic at length. We hope that with these strikes the beginning of this time-consuming and important process was nevertheless laid.
Former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko continues to master foreign military equipment. This time he was spotted on an FV103 Spartan armored personnel carrier made in England. It is not yet known if this is his new purchase of military equipment or if he just rides.
Footage of suppression of a firing point in a building by a Russian tank, presumably a T-80 or T-72 in Ukraine. The location of the battle in Ukraine is not reported.
Footage of the combat work of Russian mobilized military personnel in Ukraine. In the battles in Ukraine, the artillery crew uses the Russian 152-mm D-20 howitzer.
For a long time, nothing was heard about the combat use of the Russian BMPT "Terminator" in Ukraine. A story about the tactics of using BMPT "Terminator" in Ukraine. Subtitles in 27 languages.
An episode of the battle near the village of Pesok. The video has been shortened. Units of the Ukrainian army, consisting of 5 British Mastiff armored vehicles and two T-64BV tanks, attempted to attack the Russian Somali unit. At the beginning of the battle, Mastiff armored vehicles began to maneuver near the Russian positions, firing at them. It is worth noting that at this moment the armored vehicles were a very convenient target, but judging by the video, only one ATGM strike was fired. Perhaps not everyone was shown in the video or there were few ATGMs in the unit. Russian artillery joined the battle and began to process the area. Further, the Mastiff armored vehicles approached the junction of the 11th Donetsk regiment and the Somali battalion for the landing. The Russian unit "Sparta" is connected to the battle and the Ukrainian units begin to retreat. When the Ukrainian units withdrew, they tried to hide in the trenches, but artillery began to hit there. A Ukrainian armored vehicle that came up to evacuate the wounded was put out of action, as it was later found abandoned in a field. As a result of the battle, the Ukrainian units retreated, losing 3 Mastiff armored vehicles and an armored personnel carrier.
Footage of suppression of a firing point in a building by a Russian tank, presumably a T-80 or T-72 in Ukraine. The location of the battle in Ukraine is not reported.
Footage of the combat work of Russian mobilized military personnel in Ukraine. In the battles in Ukraine, the artillery crew uses the Russian 152-mm D-20 howitzer.
For a long time, nothing was heard about the combat use of the Russian BMPT "Terminator" in Ukraine. A story about the tactics of using BMPT "Terminator" in Ukraine. Subtitles in 27 languages.
An episode of the battle near the village of Pesok. The video has been shortened. Units of the Ukrainian army, consisting of 5 British Mastiff armored vehicles and two T-64BV tanks, attempted to attack the Russian Somali unit. At the beginning of the battle, Mastiff armored vehicles began to maneuver near the Russian positions, firing at them. It is worth noting that at this moment the armored vehicles were a very convenient target, but judging by the video, only one ATGM strike was fired. Perhaps not everyone was shown in the video or there were few ATGMs in the unit. Russian artillery joined the battle and began to process the area. Further, the Mastiff armored vehicles approached the junction of the 11th Donetsk regiment and the Somali battalion for the landing. The Russian unit "Sparta" is connected to the battle and the Ukrainian units begin to retreat. When the Ukrainian units withdrew, they tried to hide in the trenches, but artillery began to hit there. A Ukrainian armored vehicle that came up to evacuate the wounded was put out of action, as it was later found abandoned in a field. As a result of the battle, the Ukrainian units retreated, losing 3 Mastiff armored vehicles and an armored personnel carrier.
Having a good time out of Ukraine buying stuff like a spoiled kid, lol ! Poroshenko had the brain to get out of there, probably with his extended family. Would be interesting to know the amount of Ukrainian rich family got the ticket out while the rest got stuck and turn back at the frontier with mobilization letter.