The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
The Washington Post with a long article in which it draws a very bleak outlook for the Ukrainian economy. Ukraine is in very difficult times, the crisis will get worse, and the West does not want to increase financial aid to the civilian sector. Unemployment, already close to 30 percent, is likely to climb further. Ukraine’s survival hinges as much on outside economic aid as on donated weapons, and Putin now seems intent on making such help so costly that Kyiv’s Western backers give up. The article concludes that Russia is hitting the energy sector to turn Ukraine into a 'suitcase without handles'.

The dire assessments reflect something Ukrainian officials and their Western supporters do not like to admit aloud: The Kremlin has made Ukraine’s economy a pivotal theater of the war — one in which Moscow is arguably having far more success than on the front lines.

As the humanitarian needs grow, Ukrainian economic officials have sounded out Western officials about the potential for an income support program to provide roughly $50 per person per month — at a cost of $12 billion over six months.

They found a cool reception, however, from Western officials who were already wary of appearing to support too much aid for Ukraine.

Russia is destroying Ukraine’s economy, raising costs for U.S. and allies

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30 percent unemployement is perfect to have more soldiers to mobilize. It's sad but it play in the war effort.
 

Nill

New Member
Registered Member
30 percent unemployement is perfect to have more soldiers to mobilize. It's sad but it play in the war effort.
In past wars i don't think the numbers got anywhere near that nazi germany according to wiki had an army size of 13.6 million and nazi germany had about 109 million people again according to wikipedia, that's not 30 percent, though maybe i am unaware of conflicts where more than half the population ended up fighting.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
The Ukrainian army is already digging trenches in the very center of Bakhmut (Artyomovsk). AFU preparing for the defense of the city and city fights.
Thats a lot of effort for something of little strategic importance
Moreover, Yusov had the audacity to state that units of the Russian army allegedly received orders to collect fragments of Western-type ammunition, namely 155-caliber shells and other ammunition, which "may indicate the participation of Ukraine in the shelling of Donetsk" : “These munitions remnants are being delivered today purposefully to Donetsk. And then we see staged films and stories.”
This is so convoluted they are pretty much admiting they are indeed shelling civilians in Donetsk

though maybe i am unaware of conflicts where more than half the population ended up fighting.
The War of the Triple Alliance between Paraguay, Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil killed between 25% to +50% of Paraguay's population.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Reviewing the P-18 radar strike, something in indeed is different this time.


As the drone approaches, smoke is emitted from the vehicles. Smoke generator? Attempt to confuse and hide from the optics? Two long trails of smoke appeared. Two smoke generators? Still the drone managed to get through and hit the radar's back end.
 

foxmulder

Junior Member
Ukraine in Goebbels propaganda mode. The lies of the Regime in Kiev getting more and more embarrassing. But the worse thing is that Western media is liable to print it no questions asked. And a majority of westerners DO believe it.


This is the worst type of propaganda. Own your actions! turkey does this, too, actually a few countries does :D
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The idea was that the Russians would push into Ukraine much further to the west, just a couple dozen kilometers from the Polish border. The motivation being the need to cut off Western supplies arriving via Poland.

A less ambitious plan, suggested by M. Koffman was for the Russians to seize the Rivno nuclear power plant not far from the Belarusian border.
There is about about 930KM (576 miles) of NATO border (Poland + Slovakia + Hungary + Romania (including southern border near Black Sea) that needs to be sealed off completely. This border area is 30% larger than the entire Zapo-Kherson-Donestk-Luhansk frontlines, so it may need a ton of manpower to properly seal the border to prevent smuggling of supplies, equipment, and aid.

1671297670941.png
Also, given Russian formal support for secessionists in Transnistria region of Moldova, it would need to seal the Moldovan border too for extra security against smuggled goods, which adds another 150KM (93 miles) of border.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
There is about about 930KM (576 miles) of NATO border (Poland + Slovakia + Hungary + Romania (including southern border near Black Sea) that needs to be sealed off completely. This border area is 30% larger than the entire Zapo-Kherson-Donestk-Luhansk frontlines, so it may need a ton of manpower to properly seal the border to prevent smuggling of supplies, equipment, and aid.

View attachment 103549
Also, given Russian formal support for secessionists in Transnistria region of Moldova, it would need to seal the Moldovan border too for extra security against smuggled goods, which adds another 150KM (93 miles) of border.
The biggest argument against the creation of a new front in western Ukraine is the fact that most of the infrastructure being targets in recent weeks has been in eastern Ukraine. I think the Russians are focusing on consolidating in the east and are in no rush on opening up a new front.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
There is about about 930KM (576 miles) of NATO border (Poland + Slovakia + Hungary + Romania (including southern border near Black Sea) that needs to be sealed off completely. This border area is 30% larger than the entire Zapo-Kherson-Donestk-Luhansk frontlines, so it may need a ton of manpower to properly seal the border to prevent smuggling of supplies, equipment, and aid.

View attachment 103549
Also, given Russian formal support for secessionists in Transnistria region of Moldova, it would need to seal the Moldovan border too for extra security against smuggled goods, which adds another 150KM (93 miles) of border.
I don't think the Romanian border is a priority. According to what I heard, only a small share of supplies have arrived via that route to Ukraine. Given Orban's sentiments about the war, I doubt Hungary would participate in supplying Ukraine. With Poland out of the game, that would leave Slovakia and Romania. Again if Hungary refuses transit rights, the only way to deliver supplies to Romania would be by air and sea. I wonder if Turkey's closure of the Bosporus strait applies to military cargo in addition to military ships?

Having said that, I don't think this strategy is viable. Russia is in no shape to execute something as ambitious. In my opinion, if they were to invade again from Belarus, it will be a very limited operation: possibly to take the Rivne nuclear power plant and further amplify Ukraine's energy shortfall.
 
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Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
I don't think the Romanian border is a priority. According to what I heard, only a small share of supplies have arrived via that route to Ukraine. Given Orban's sentiments about the war, I doubt Hungary would participate in supplying Ukraine. With Poland out of the game, that would leave Slovakia and Romania. Again if Hungary refuses transit rights, the only way to deliver supplies to Romania would be by air and sea. I wonder if Turkey's closure of the Bosporus strait applies to military cargo in addition to military ships?
Hungary doesn't restrict the transfer thorught Hungary, but only to enter Ukrainan territory .

Or transfer of Hungarian military stuff to Ukraine, train Ukrainan soldiers and so on.

Actually, most likelly it is next to imposible to know what is the purpose of the delivery from Poland to Romania .
 
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