The Mali situation

delft

Brigadier
One of the photographs in navyreco's #32 shown two An-124's. The French are flying in plenty of heavy equipment.
 

Subedei

Banned Idiot
By all accounts, the Islamists in Mali are large, organized, and disciplined.

which accounts and, is, and, if so, how, is "large" quantified? and organized and disciplined? compared to what? the malian army, maybe so. the french army, we'll see.

several accounts i've read list the total anti-govt islamist force at ~3,000, one saying that ~1,200 were involved in the attack on konna.

so, if that's accurate, we're talking about a battalion sized force involved in one attack that would constitute ~1/3 of the whole force. if they're not smart, engaging france in konna could bankrupt them. so far, it seems they've fallen back from konna, which is what i'd expect.

all this to say, what is so surprising that the french army, with full logistical, air, and intelligence, support would divide their force to attack a less powerful force along separate axis?
 
Last edited:

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
January 11, 2013
A Trail of Bullet Casings Leads From Africa’s Wars Back to Iran
By C. J. CHIVERS
The first clues appeared in Kenya, Uganda and what is now South Sudan. A British arms researcher surveying ammunition used by government forces and civilian militias in 2006 found Kalashnikov rifle cartridges he had not seen before. The ammunition bore no factory code, suggesting that its manufacturer hoped to avoid detection.

Within two years other researchers were finding identical cartridges circulating through the ethnic violence in Darfur. Similar ammunition then turned up in 2009 in a stadium in Conakry, Guinea, where soldiers had fired on antigovernment protesters, killing more than 150.

For six years, a group of independent arms-trafficking researchers worked to pin down the source of the mystery cartridges. Exchanging information from four continents, they concluded that someone had been quietly funneling rifle and machine-gun ammunition into regions of protracted conflict, and had managed to elude exposure for years. Their only goal was to solve the mystery, not implicate any specific nation.

When the investigators’ breakthrough came, it carried a surprise. The manufacturer was not one of Africa’s usual suspects. It was Iran.

Iran has a well-developed military manufacturing sector, but has not exported its weapons in quantities rivaling those of the heavyweights in the global arms trade, including the United States, Russia, China and several European countries. But its export choices in this case were significant. While small-arms ammunition attracts less attention than strategic weapons or arms that have drawn international condemnation, like land mines and cluster bombs, it is a basic ingredient of organized violence, and is involved each year and at each war in uncountable deaths and crimes.

And for the past several years, even as Iran faced intensive foreign scrutiny over its nuclear program and for supporting proxies across the Middle East, its state-manufactured ammunition was distributed through secretive networks to a long list of combatants, including in regions under United Nations arms embargoes.

The trail of evidence uncovered by the investigation included Iranian cartridges in the possession of rebels in Ivory Coast, federal troops in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Taliban in Afghanistan and groups affiliated with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in Niger. The ammunition was linked to spectacular examples of state-sponsored violence and armed groups connected to terrorism — all without drawing wide attention or leading back to its manufacturer.

The ammunition, matched to the world’s most abundant firearms, has principally been documented in Africa, where the researchers concluded that untold quantities had been supplied to governments in Guinea, Kenya, Ivory Coast and, the evidence suggests, Sudan.

From there, it traveled to many of the continent’s most volatile locales, becoming an instrument of violence in some of Africa’s ugliest wars and for brutal regimes. And while the wide redistribution within Africa may be the work of African governments, the same ammunition has also been found elsewhere, including in an insurgent arms cache in Iraq and on a ship intercepted as it headed for the Gaza Strip.

Iran’s role in providing arms to allies and to those who fight its enemies has long been broadly understood. Some of these practices were most recently reported in the transfer of Fajr-5 ground-to-ground rockets to Gaza. Its expanding footprint of small-arms ammunition exports has pushed questions about its roles in a shadowy ammunition trade high onto the list of research priorities for trafficking investigators.

“If you had asked me not too long ago what Iran’s role in small-arms ammunition trafficking to Africa had been, I would have said, ‘Not much,’ ” said James Bevan, a former United Nations investigator who since 2011 has been director of Conflict Armament Research, a private firm registered in England that identifies and tracks conventional weapons. “Our understanding of that is changing.”

The independent investigation also demonstrated the relative ease with which weapons and munitions flow about the world, a characteristic of the arms trade that might partly explain how Iran sidestepped scrutiny of governments and international organizations, including the United Nations, that have tried to restrict its banking transactions and arms sales.

The United Nations, in a series of resolutions, has similarly tried to block arms transfers into Ivory Coast, Congo and Sudan, all places where researchers found Iranian ammunition.

Ammunition from other sources, including China, Russia, Hungary, the Czech Republic and other former Soviet bloc nations remain in circulation in Africa, along with production by African countries. Why Iran has entered the market is not clear, but ammunition would still be available even if it had not. Profit motives as well as an effort by Iran to gain influence in Africa might explain the exports, Mr. Bevan said. But much remains unknown.

Neither the government of Iran nor its military manufacturing conglomerate, the Defense Industries Organization, replied to written queries submitted for this article.

The researchers involved in the investigation — including several former experts for the United Nations and one from Amnesty International — documented the expanding circulation of Iranian ammunition, not the means or the entities that have actually exported the stocks. They are not sure if the ammunition had been directly sold by the Iranian government or its security services, by a government- or military-controlled firm, or by front companies abroad.

But the long mysterious source of the ammunition appears beyond dispute. The cartridges were made, the researchers say, by the Ammunition and Metallurgy Industries Group, a subsidiary of the Defense Industries Organization.

Matching the cartridges to the producer took time, in part because the ammunition had been packaged and marked in ways to dissuade tracing.

Much of the world’s ammunition bears numeric or logo markings, known as headstamps, that together declare the location and year of a cartridge’s manufacture. Over the years, governments and private researchers have assembled encyclopedic headstamp keys, which can make matching particular markings to particular factories a straightforward pursuit.

The ammunition in these cases included rounds for Kalashnikov assault rifles, for medium machine guns and sniper rifles and for heavy machine guns.

In each case, the cartridges carried headstamps not listed on the publicly available records. The stamps were simple caliber markings and, typically, two digits indicating the year of manufacture.

Similarly, neither the ammunition’s wooden crates nor its packaging in green plastic carry bags or plain cardboard boxes, when these items were found with the ammunition, disclosed the place of manufacture. All of the ammunition shared a unique combination of traits, including the caliber headstamp in a certain font, the alloy of the bullet jackets, and three indentations where primers had been attached to cartridge cases. Those traits suggested a common manufacturer.

Over the years, the researchers bided time and gathered data. They collected samples of used and unused ammunition at conflicts and recorded their characteristics. They collaborated with other specialists, exchanging their finds. Some sources were confidential, others were not. Mike Lewis, a former member of the United Nations Panel of Experts on the Sudan, documented the presence of the ammunition at the Conakry stadium crackdown while investigating for Amnesty International.

One sample — from Afghanistan — was found by The New York Times, which was surveying ammunition used by the Taliban and provided an image of a then-unidentifiable cartridge’s headstamp to Mr. Bevan in 2010.

Once the data was assembled, the breakthrough came in what a soon-to-be-released report by the researchers called “cross-case analysis” and by looking away from the ammunition to other sources.

In late 2011 Mr. Bevan obtained the bill of lading for 13 shipping containers seized by the authorities in Lagos, Nigeria, in 2010. The document showed that the containers originated in Iran and declared the contents to be “building materials.”

But, as the researchers noted in their report, “concealed behind stone slabs and insulation materials” was a shipment of arms, including the same ammunition that they had been finding in the field.

The shipping company was based in Tehran, Iran’s capital.

Declassified documents obtained via the Freedom of Information Act by Matthew Schroeder, an arms-trafficking analyst at the Federation of American Scientists, later showed that the American military had identified ammunition packaged in the same materials as Iranian ammunition. Mr. Schroeder shared his documents with Mr. Bevan. This provided another link.

Ultimately, Mr. Bevan noticed that Iran had published limited technical details of its cartridges, including bullet weights. Some of these weights are atypical. Late in 2012 he had samples weighed on a jeweler’s scale, confirming the match.

Mr. Bevan made clear in repeated interviews that he and his fellow researchers are not advocates for military action against Iran. When they began tracing the ammunition, they did not know or expect that the evidence would point to Tehran.

He also noted that while the ammunition is Iranian-made, it may not have been sent directly by Iran to some of the combatants.

“In terms of prescription, if it was clear that there were repeated violations by Iran, I think we could come down more strongly about it,” he said. “But a good portion of this, and in perhaps the majority of these cases, the ammunition was transferred around Africa by African states.”

He added that while the original source of the ammunitions was now clear, many questions remained unanswered, including who organized the delivery to regions under embargo or enmeshed in ethnic conflicts.

Mr. Bevan and his fellow researchers said their findings pointed to a need for further research, to gather facts upon which policy decisions can be based.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

solarz

Brigadier
Things are a bit confused right now. Seems like the French didn't go into Konna after all? Or maybe they did, but were mostly relying on the Malian military?

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


article said:
The Malian authorities have officially declared control of the central town of Konna after days of fierce battle with Al-Qaida-linked rebels.

Both the army and state television announced the control on Thursday night to spark jubilation among Malians, especially in Konna, which changed hands in the fight to stop northern rebels from a southward push.

Speaking on television, lieutenant-colonel Diarran Kone, the communication adviser in Mali's Defense Ministry, said the town was under the control of the army and that French forces were absent in a strategic move.

France intervened a week ago to launch air raids on rebels who briefly seized Konna from retreating Malian soldiers. The bombardments forced rebels to flee out of town and fightings lasted days in which some military sources claimed the recapture of the town.

A Malian soldier, who did not wish to be named, said there was heavy fighting between the army and rebels from Wednesday night to Thursday morning, adding that there were heavy losses of lives and materials on the side of rebels.

In the town of Diabaly near the Mauritanian border, rebels are still surrounded by the Malian army supported by the French troops.
 

navyreco

Senior Member
Things are a bit confused right now. Seems like the French didn't go into Konna after all? Or maybe they did, but were mostly relying on the Malian military?

Main objective for now is to "freeze" the front line by holding strategic points such as bridges, main road crossings etc...

The French are waiting for their heavy-ish armor to move further north, because the terrorists use 14.5mm and that's a no go when you ride inside a VAB or un-armored jeeps.
 

navyreco

Senior Member
Probably the most capable and best equipped Western Africa military:

ni2o.jpg

Nigerian soldiers prepare to load weapons stored in boxes into a military plane before leaving for Mali, at the airport in Nigeria's northern state of Kaduna January 17, 2013. The first West African regional forces arrived in Mali on Thursday to reinforce French and Malian troops battling to push back al Qaeda-linked rebels after seven days of French air strikes. A contingent of around 100 Togolese troops landed in Bamako and was due to be joined by Nigerian forces already en route. Picture taken January 17, 2013. *******/Afolabi Sotunde

ni3d.jpg

Nigerian soldiers gather during preparations for their deployment to Mali, at the army's peacekeeping centre in Nigeria's northern state of Kaduna January 17, 2013. The first West African regional forces arrived in Mali on Thursday to reinforce French and Malian troops battling to push back al Qaeda-linked rebels after seven days of French air strikes. A contingent of around 100 Togolese troops landed in Bamako and was due to be joined by Nigerian forces already en route. Picture taken January 17, 2013. *******/Afolabi Sotunde

ni4oe.jpg

Nigerian soldiers sit in military trucks before leaving for Mali, at the airport in Nigeria's northern state of Kaduna January 17, 2013. The first West African regional forces arrived in Mali on Thursday to reinforce French and Malian troops battling to push back al Qaeda-linked rebels after seven days of French air strikes. A contingent of around 100 Togolese troops landed in Bamako and was due to be joined by Nigerian forces already en route. Picture taken January 17, 2013. *******/Afolabi Sotunde
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Subedei

Banned Idiot
i'm quite perplexed by the lack of any reports of french air assets going after the islamists' technicals while they're on the move. several accounts report islamists withdrawing, but offer no details about any pursuit. acknowledgedly, the mali army isn't tactically proficient to pursue, but the french air force and army air force certainly shouldn't let these opportunities pass.

well, diabaly and konna are taken, and will soon be secured. now we'll see if the french use strategy or brute force. imo, attempting to roll up north from the "front line" is the absolute incorrect approach to defeating this insurgency. it would be more effective to converge upon them by first securing the extreme border points and then moving in towards a center.

using the attached maps as a reference, i'd suggest securing, in order of significance: nampala and lere (west), tinzaouaten aguelhok, and tessalit (north east), taoudenni (north), and finally, anderamboukane, menaka, and asongo (south east). this would cut off thier cross-border access, limiting their mobility and limiting them to their in-theater resources. from those locations, the direction of all action is towards the center.
 

Attachments

  • Northern_Mali_conflict.svg.jpg
    Northern_Mali_conflict.svg.jpg
    78.5 KB · Views: 6
  • Mali situation.jpg
    Mali situation.jpg
    103.6 KB · Views: 6
Last edited:
Top