Hmm OK
Taijisheng
Friendly advice, just accept the moderation with good grace, you will not win and it is simply not worth it.
FuManChu
I disagree with your assesment of the respective parties. PRC have tried talking to Chen, have offered incentives to Chen and he rebuffed them. Direct flights at New Year have only happened last two years because they were negotiated through KMT and public supported them. Chen in my opinion is the problem.
Hi KYli
Chen could try to change the constitution, this is a very dangerous move because it might involve changing Taiwan name, sovereignty and flag. There are a lot of talk in the DPP and Pan green that 2008 would be best time to acheive indenpendent, because of the Olympic.
The another thing Chen could do is to hold a referendum of independent
This lies at the heart of my arguement. He can do all these things, but as long as the Opposition and UN/Major Nations do not recognise them, then outside of Chen's office they have not happened. They will have no effect, except make Chen a laughing stock. Nobody is going to upset the global apple cart for Taiwan, China is just too significant to their own prosperity to risk even an interuption.
He can hold a referendum, I think he would be unlikely to win it, but even if he did it could be dismissed as nothing more than an expensive opion poll.
Even with regard to the Reunification Council "ceasing to operate", the KMT could score a easy point if they wished too. Ceasing to operate is intended to signify "not abolished", well fine. The opposition are entitled to maintain a "Shadow Reunification Council" that is under no obligation to cease operating. Such a body funded by Taiwanese businesses on the Mainland, could indeed be very busy over the next two years - perhaps publicaly establishing a framework for discussions relating to a road map to reconciliation maybe. If the Pan Blue have something to offer whilst Pan Green are clearly going nowhere, then public opinion is easy to guess. People who are prepared to sacrifice their well being for an ideal or a notion, are extremists. Extremists are by definition a minority.
Finally understand the political mind, why be just the President of a small and isolated Island, when you can be a senior minister in one of the worlds most powerful nations? What do you think most politicians would choose?
This is the reality I predict for the next two years and I hope you can see why and agree with me.
Sometimes things just conspire to prove my point: jusy found this in Taiwans China Post.
Senator Warner questions U.S. position on Taiwan defense
2006/3/9
The China Post staff with agencies
An influential U.S. senator on Tuesday questioned whether America would defend Taiwan if "wrongful and inappropriate" actions from politicians here spurred a conflict with China.
Republican Sen. John Warner called a decision by President Chen Shui-bian last week to shut down a government body devoted to seeking unification with China "one of those unfortunate incidents that seem to continue to arise."
If a conflict with China was aided by "inappropriate and wrongful politics generated by the Taiwanese elected officials, I am not entirely sure that this nation would come full force to their rescue," Warner said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing attended by U.S. military officials responsible for Northeast Asia.
Warner is the committee's chairman and one of the leading voices on military issues in Congress. Warner said he supported Taiwan building up its military in the face of growing Chinese military expansion, "but at the same time they've got to learn how to ... tone down their heated politics." China has repeatedly threatened war if Taiwan declares formal independence. The United States is Taiwan's only major ally.
Adm. William Fallon, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, acknowledged at the hearing that America is "trying to walk a thin line" in supporting China's efforts to act as a positive force in the region while also honoring U.S. obligations to defend Taiwan.
He said Chen's decision was "not particularly helpful." But he also noted China's "muted response" to Chen's move _ a change, he said, from Beijing's previous reactions to developments in Taiwan. China, Fallon said, is "taking this more in stride, rather than just reacting."
Generally, Fallon said tensions between China and Taiwan have "significantly reduced" from a year ago.
Chen's move to scrap the National Unification Council (NUC) strained Taipei's ties with Washington.
Chen promised in 2000 and 2004 that he would not abolish the council as part of his "five noes" policy. Washington views the policy as promises from Chen that he will not unilaterally change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait with moves towards independence.
But Taipei's de facto ambassador to the U.S., David Lee, also on Tuesday, downplayed reports of friction.
"Taipei is continuing to communicate with Washington... and a mutual understanding should be achieved very soon," Lee said.
Lee also said Warner told him about these concerns several months earlier, saying U.S. forces were busy with Iraq, Afghanistan and in fighting terror.
"Warner was concerned that if the situation in the Taiwan Strait took a turn for the worse, the U.S. might not have enough military force to enter into a conflict," Lee said.
Taipei is insisting it never "abolished" the council and it only "ceased to function", with no changes to the status quo.
The U.S. State Department last week issued a rare public statement requesting the Taipei authorities to clearly state they never abolished the council, citing reports quoting senior Taiwan officials as saying "abolish" and "cease to function" were the same thing.
Although the media company responsible for the report later clarified that these senior officials never said the two phrases were the same, Lee said the U.S. was still not satisfied. It was continuing to push for Taipei to openly state it never abolished the NUC.
He said Taipei hoped to settle the matter before Chinese President Hu Jintao's state visit to Washington in April.
Lee said the U.S. would not give opposition leader Ma Ying-jeou better treatment than ruling party politicians during Ma's coming Washington visit.
Analysts have speculated that the U.S. might try to show its displeasure with Chen by cold-shouldering his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and giving opposition politicians a warm welcome.
"Kuomintang (KMT) chairman Ma Ying-jeou will be given the same treatment ... as that accorded to Premier Su Tseng-chang when he visited the U.S. last July," Lee said. Su at the time was DPP chairman.
Lee said the U.S. side told him it had fixed principles and procedures for handling Ma's visit.
