Taiwan plans to build 500 cruise missiles

adeptitus said:

No, that is an assumption, The PRC leadership doesn't have anyone above them to say "you must invade today". Their "measured response" can range from diplomacy to a shower of ballistic missiles.

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It might be an assumption, but they did drew the red line themselves. If they failed to act over their words, they will see as weak and useless in the eye of many chinese. Diplomacy and missiles couldn't stop the indenpendent to become realiist. China government just can't allow this to happen, they might not want war but they did not want historians to judge them for failing to united China. When they signed the Anti-secession law into action, this law will be hold the leadership responsible for any separation issue.

The Taiwan conflict exist today because Chang and Mao wanted to duke it out, and it spilled over to Taiwan. The islanders never asked to get involved, we imposed the conflict on them and they're still being screwed because of it.

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But the indenpendent movement has been active only recently. Back ten or twenty years ago, Taiwanese did not have the strong feeling of self determination. It could argue that Mao or Chang should be hold responsible for failing to resolve the issue, but if Taiwan did not wanted to become a separate nation and let the status quo mantain. I think the Chinese government would be happy to leave this alone and let the next generation to resolve the difference.

The PRC has been around for over half a century without Taiwan, and it sure hasn't fallen because of it. If the Chinese leadership would be more accomodating and accept ROC on equal standing (nation-nation), negotiate a peace treaty (with POST-Chen government) - perhaps even a Chinese Commonwealth as equal partners, where people from both sides are free to trade, travel, and immigrate directly, it'd bring the Taiwanese people back into "Chinese family" better than branding them traitors and raining 1,000 missiles on their heads.

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PRC wanted to take Taiwan for the fifty years, and Taiwan has been wanting to do the same for over thirty years. Today, just because Taiwan might think otherwise, does not mean the Civil War has ever ended. Because for the most chinese, they consider Taiwan is part of China. Maybe you don't see this is a big deal, but it is a big deal for many many chinese. Not only the nationalism but for anyone who felt strongly for being a chinese. Nation to Nation is for two countries, not when a country that is separate because of civil war. i have said that if both parties put away their difference, and let focus on trade, travel, immigrate. It will be benefits to everyone, but if Taiwan tried to make the independent became real. Then sadly I would think war is unpreventable. The chioce is now in the Taiwanese hand, China could only do as much. I would want the taiwanese people back into chinese family too, but the movement of independent is moving toward radical. Many taiwanese began not to consider themselves as chinese. Which is the most sad thing that I would say. I don't have problem for Taiwanese to hate the CCP or mistrust the mainland. But by refusing and whitwash their identity so they could call themselves as other race or country which is rather unacceoptable to me.

Taiwan's birth rate has fallen to the 1.2x per women range. I'd like to see the future immigrant population of Taiwan to come from China, and not Philippines and Indonesia. Just my $0.02.

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Taiwan had strongly restict any chinese immgrant, but more flexible to other countries. The chinese who marry the Taiwanese will take much longer to become citizen of Taiwan. This unfair practice has intenify after chen is in power.

KYli said:

Because for the most chinese, they consider Taiwan is part of China........ I would want the taiwanese people back into chinese family too, but the movement of independent is moving toward radical. Many taiwanese began not to consider themselves as chinese. Which is the most sad thing that I would say. I don't have problem for Taiwanese to hate the CCP or mistrust the mainland. But by refusing and whitwash their identity so they could call themselves as other race or country which is rather unacceoptable to me.

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KYli, it is up to them how they think of themselves. Are you telling me that even if a "Chinese" person is born outside of the mainland, they can't consider themselves of that country? That they are always Chinese? If someone born in the UK wants to say that they are British rather than British-Chinese or Chinese then that is up to them. It is not for Chinese people to say, "hey! you whitewash your identity." You have no right to judge them on such matters. Identity is not based on skin colour or where your ancestors came from.

ff ff (As Golle says, let's not divert off the topic. We should be talking about Taiwanese missiles, end of story)

And this is related to Taiwans building cruisemissiles how????

Now i've already banned one member, one is waiting for final verdict so last thing i need is that you and KYli goes too way from the topic...

so getting the hint??

So these LACMs sound like they are being developed indeginously. I know that there probably isn't any info out there about yet about these things, but I was wondering if one of the experts on this forums could provide some speculation as to the possible capabilities and performance of these missiles. Could they be up to par with what China is developing? Or maybe even western tech? Why don't they just buy some from the U.S? Then they will have some to start with and maybe they can start an indeginous progarm from there.

Starting from scratch will just take time that I don't think the Taiwanese can afford to waste.

MrClean said:

Why don't they just buy some from the U.S?

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The US has a policy of not selling Taiwan offensive technology such as a kind that could be used in cruise missiles like this. Selling defensive technology is one thing, but selling even highly advanced systems like AEGIS destroyers is not on the cards. So allowing them to buy cruise missiles is definitely out of the question

MrClean said:

So these LACMs sound like they are being developed indeginously. I know that there probably isn't any info out there about yet about these things, but I was wondering if one of the experts on this forums could provide some speculation as to the possible capabilities and performance of these missiles. Could they be up to par with what China is developing? Or maybe even western tech? Why don't they just buy some from the U.S? Then they will have some to start with and maybe they can start an indeginous progarm from there.

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The article that sparked off this discussion originated from a Jane's Defense Weekly report, published on Jan 10, 2006. It said that Taiwan had built 3 prototypes of the HF-2E LACM, and plans to build up to 50 missiles by 2010, and up to 500 missiles AFTER 2010. Currently the range of the missiles is cited at 600km, and Janes report that it can be extended to 1,000 km via US technology (Tomahawk rocket engine?), which the US government is unwilling to provide due to MTCR restrictions.

The HF-2E LACM is said to have the specs of:
Range: 600km
Speed: Mach 0.85
Guidance: GPS, GLONASS, digital terrain recognition
Precision: 12 meters
Payload: 200kg

The report specifies that up to 50 of these LACM's may be built by 2010. I think some people took the "500 missile" number and ran off foaming at the mouth.

Assuming if the specs and numbers are correct, and a military conflict occurs between PRC and ROC by 2010, the ROC military would have to use its inventory of ~50 HF-2E's very carefully. They're probably accurate enough to hit aircraft hangers and runways, but a certain % would be shot-down by anti-missile defenses.

Maybe, given a scenario where PLAN was massing transport ships at port, these HF-2E's might have a large impact. With 12m accuracy, that's enough to hit large stationary ships, and when used in saturated attacks, some should penetrate the defenses.

As for China's LACM program, the DH-10's specs (and its actual existance) is still under speculation. Richard Fisher actually published an article last year claiming that the DH-10's range has been extended from 1,200km to 4,000 km "according to various reports" with no source given. Gee. =p

FuManChu said:

KYli, it is up to them how they think of themselves. Are you telling me that even if a "Chinese" person is born outside of the mainland, they can't consider themselves of that country? That they are always Chinese? If someone born in the UK wants to say that they are British rather than British-Chinese or Chinese then that is up to them. It is not for Chinese people to say, "hey! you whitewash your identity." You have no right to judge them on such matters. Identity is not based on skin colour or where your ancestors came from.

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I never said anything like this, don't twist my words. My implication is about an attend of large group of people who go out of way, and I never said anything about right and wrong. Just I feel bad about it.

ff ff (As Golle says, let's not divert off the topic. We should be talking about Taiwanese missiles, end of story)

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Don't play innocent Fumanchu, you have deliberate used words to cost flame. As a result there are few of the members get warning or ban. I hope you can stop using Words that will cause flame. I know this is a open forum so this is just an advice.

Golly, I know this is offtopic, so please PM me if you have a problem.

If it is as good as those specs say, than these missiles could give Taiwan a good defensive capability in some certain (hypothetical) situations such as the one you mentioned.

But it is strange that Taiwan seems further in development in their LACM program than China. Probably just because China likes to be so secretive about it's tech.

I guess that the only thing that could safely be said about this develpoment is that it will not be good for cross-strait relations.

Golly, I know this is offtopic, so please PM me if you have a problem.

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There is no proplems, just that this thread is going offtopic so i just made a notice that you should drift back. There's no need for separate PMs...becouse this is the most usual and everyday moderation.

Avoid trolling and avoid flaming and also don't get fooled when someone tryes to pull you offtopic (This goes to all)

Well I certainly would not wish to be accused of going off topic or flaming

So here is a final quick summary of my argument:

I doubt if any advanced Taiwanese Cruise Missiles will be built, not only does President Chen not control the political chambers he would need to in order to get such spending approved, but I feel that with a new generation in the process of taking power, on both sides of the straits, that there is a new willingness to achieve a peaceful solution.

Initiatives have been proposed during the last year, the latest from the mainland being to make Fujian a Free Trade Zone specifically for the benefit of Taiwanese Businessmen



Hardly the move you would expect to see for for an intended war zone.

The notion of being able to start working towards a consensus over the next few years, seems to be accepted by most of the International Community and it seems generally agreed that no maverick actions will be allowed to divert or disrupt this current trend.

For the missiles on the Chinese Side, I think we can expect a moritorium on further deployments after the next two years, if not earlier, and a further process of; maybe rapid, redeployment away from the Straits area, following soon after.

There is no need to respond directly to this post, as I will now be awaiting further significant development before returning to this or its related subjects. If anyone disagree strongly, please provide a summary of your own position and let others make up their own mind.