Taiwan Military News Thread

[Deleted member 675]

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Taiwan wants to buy at least six US-built destroyers equipped with the advanced Aegis system to counter the perceived threat from rival China, it was reported on Monday.

An evaluation of the arms deal estimated to be worth up to 150 billion Taiwan dollars (4.6 billion US) has been taking place, a news agency quoted a "reliable" military source as saying.

"The navy's goal is to buy six destroyers with an option for two others," the source said, adding that Deputy Defence Minister Henry Ko and Chen Yung-kang, chief of the general staff, would travel to the United States next week to discuss the deal.

Taiwan's Defence Ministry declined to comment on the report. The United States had previously rejected Taiwan's offer to buy Aegis-class destroyers, saying it is giving priority to the demands of the US navy and that the Taiwanese navy does not have the capability to operate such sophisticated weaponry.

Washington later sold Taipei four second-hand 9,600-tonne Kidd-class destroyers, a move military analysts said could be a prelude to the island's acquisition of Aegis destroyers.

"The navy's operation of the four Kidd-class destroyers is excellent," a Taiwanese naval officer told the news agency on condition of anonymity.

"What's more, it indicates that the navy certainly has the ability to operate advanced warships," he said.

Taiwan's navy has said its combat capabilities will be greatly improved thanks to the four 9,600-tonne destroyers, sold to Taiwan as part of an arms package approved by US President George W. Bush in April 2002.

 

[Norfolk]

The new diesel subs being designed by Electric Boat and the AEGIS destroyers, in combination with P-3C's, Patriot PAC-3's and F-16's would give Taiwan a real fighting chance if China ever acted upon its stated threats to invade if they thought necessary. These are very good weapons for directly countering the threats posed by Chinese subs, aircraft, and missiles, to stop or disrupt a Chinese invasion whilst in the bombardment and subsequent amphibious stages; reducing or minimizing the effects of ballistic missile bombardments, air strikes, and airborne landings, breaking a sub-based naval blockade, and catching out amphibious troops whilst in transit across the Taiwan Straits.

The problem is that the "War of Reunification" between China and Taiwan is being waged right now, and China is clearly winning. Between KMT obstructionism and the sudden US lukewarmness in providing the necessary armaments to Taiwan, and Chinese diplomatic and economic pressures and initiatives to isolate Taiwan, it is looking increasingly likely that China may never have to fire a shot in order to annex Taiwan. If this is what ultimately transpires, Chinese strategy will have have the perfect military victory as postulated by Sun Tzu, in that the superior general may achieve his objectives without having to engage in battle itself by putting his opponent into a simply untenable position through a combination of political, social, economic, pyschological, and military maneouvres.

Taiwan is increasingly finding itself caught between a rock and a hard place, and it will take a great deal of political will (which at present seems to be sadly lacking in both Taiwan and the US) to break out of the Chinese trap and reverse Taiwan's military decline vis-a-vis China.

 

[Vlad Plasmius]

Those weapons won't do much good if they get stuck in the legislature of Taiwan, blocked by the State Department, or don't arrive on time.

 

[Deleted member 675]

it is looking increasingly likely that China may never have to fire a shot in order to annex Taiwan.

I don't think that's the case. Though China may be able to win a war in the future, Taiwan won't just surrender. A peaceful solution that everyone could live with is possible, but not one that was heavily biased towards China. The way the law is set up makes it impossible to change the Constitution without both political factions agreeing.

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It's difficult to predict how far the KMT are going to oppose the PAC-3 batteries and submarines. If they strike the Patriots again they might be shooting themselves in the foot as their argument over the 2004 referendum "vetoing" the purchase isn't valid any more. That would annoy Washington and make it difficult to win more arms sales if they win the Presidency in 2008. So it's up to the KMT as to whether they want to cause themselves trouble or not.

With the submarines, I think it's a case of the US needing to convince Taiwan it can get the job done. Up until now it's been a case of "give us $12 billion now and we might give you something in return, but we won't say what yet." That needs to change to a more positive attitude where Taiwan is given some concrete promises - the Department of Defense has a good chance to win around the legislative with the upcoming fact-finding visit.

I don't buy the belief the US has suddenly decided not to supply Taiwan with arms. The missile sale last year, although not of massive value, was more critical for Taiwan than new F-16s, AEGIS destroyers, etc. Refusing to sell more AMRAAMs would have been a clearer sign of Washington's disapproval.

Those weapons won't do much good if they get stuck in the legislature of Taiwan, blocked by the State Department, or don't arrive on time.

Vlad, no offence, but you're just stating the obvious. We've had these sorts of discussions before - we don't need to have them again.

 

[Norfolk]

I don't think that's the case. Though China may be able to win a war in the future, Taiwan won't just surrender. A peaceful solution that everyone could live with is possible, but not one that was heavily biased towards China. The way the law is set up makes it impossible to change the Constitution without both political factions agreeing.

I expect that you are quite right FuManChu, I just find myself giving into pessimism sometimes when these sorts of things occurr. But I am very concerned that both the means to win and the will to win in the event of a Chinese invasion are fading even as China's are growing.

 

[Deleted member 675]

I expect that you are quite right FuManChu, I just find myself giving into pessimism sometimes when these sorts of things occurr.

You don't have to be blindly optimistic, just try to be balanced. I think sometimes people can get too emotionally involved in these sorts of things.

I remember last year and this year there was a lot of pessimism over the approval of the CVF project, people predicting it would be quietly cancelled or only one ship would be ordered, etc. I didn't give in to the doom & gloom and, strangely enough, the deal went through. Same applies to the P-3C Orions. Many people thought the KMT would never approve the purchase, but it did.

But I am very concerned that both the means to win and the will to win in the event of a Chinese invasion are fading even as China's are growing.

I don't think the "will" to win has decreased much, though to be honest the feelings now are irrelevant because they almost always toughen when the fighting starts.

As to the means, Taiwanese defence policy has increasingly become one of deterrence. I doubt that Taiwan will do something to "force" China to invade. So it becomes a strategy of ensuring China isn't tempted to "find fault" as it were and launching military action, whether a blockade or even invasion, on a pre-text.

Also Taiwan still has some things in its favour, such as the geographical and logistical challenges China will face in regards to a full-scale attack. Then there is equipment like the Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missile, which Taiwan is bringing into service and reportedly will be based on mobile launchers, as well as the ROCN's Perry-class frigates.

 

[Vlad Plasmius]

Vlad, no offence, but you're just stating the obvious. We've had these sorts of discussions before - we don't need to have them again.

Well, the State Department blocking them is kind of a new thing. It just seems like there are more and more roadblocks being put in front of Taiwan arming itself for even basic self-defense every day.

I mean, if there is so much fuss made over just the P-3s and Patriot missiles I don't see how a purchase of Arleigh Burke is ever going to get through.

I expect some will use the recent acquisition of the Kidds as reason to block the Arleigh Burke purchase. In fact, it would be much more important to buy more missiles for the Kidds before buying up AEGIS destroyers. I don't get why the Taiwanese government is so intent on buying lots of ships and aircraft, but seems to spend less time buying sufficient armaments for them.

 

[Deleted member 675]

Well, the State Department blocking them is kind of a new thing.

No, it isn't. State has been arguing against arms sales to all sorts of countries for years - decades, even. Taiwan is no different.

I mean, if there is so much fuss made over just the P-3s and Patriot missiles I don't see how a purchase of Arleigh Burke is ever going to get through.

As I said, they always make a fuss. It's just that it's getting a bit more attention because of the drama of the last three years.

I expect some will use the recent acquisition of the Kidds as reason to block the Arleigh Burke purchase.

That wouldn't be a credible argument. If anything, the sale of the Kidd-class destroyers was seen as a test for the ROCN, in that they would get experience of operating big ships before moving on to something like the Arleigh Burkes. The Kidds have been introduced fairly successfully into the ROCN.

In fact, it would be much more important to buy more missiles for the Kidds before buying up AEGIS destroyers. I don't get why the Taiwanese government is so intent on buying lots of ships and aircraft, but seems to spend less time buying sufficient armaments for them.

Taiwan has placed an order for more missiles so they can all sail with a full load. They don't need any more than that for the moment.

The Taiwanese government normally requests plenty of ammunition, but the KMT often cut it out to make the package "affordable". Taiwan can't afford to buy huge stockpiles of missiles in one go because they'd all fall out of service at the same time. So in regards to things like AMRAAMs, they buy them in batches - doubtless another batch will be ordered in a few years. Ordering in batches also allows for more advanced types to be bought.

Plus I doubt Washington would approve a sale of something like 400 in one go anyway.

 

[adeptitus]

$4.6 billion for Aegis-equipped destroyers is not cheap, but at least they'll get more hardware out of it than the $2.8 billion (plus bribes) La Fayette deal in the 1990s!

Also, considering the price, these ships should be brand new and not another 30-year old hand-me-down.

 

[Vlad Plasmius]

No, it isn't. State has been arguing against arms sales to all sorts of countries for years - decades, even. Taiwan is no different.

When have they actually blocked progress on such shipments to Taiwan? I don't believe they have.

As I said, they always make a fuss. It's just that it's getting a bit more attention because of the drama of the last three years.

They didn't seem to make such a fuss over the Kidds.

That wouldn't be a credible argument. If anything, the sale of the Kidd-class destroyers was seen as a test for the ROCN, in that they would get experience of operating big ships before moving on to something like the Arleigh Burkes. The Kidds have been introduced fairly successfully into the ROCN.

The Kidds haven't been in service that long. Didn't they just finish receiving them last year? I doubt there'll be much momentum for another big purchase like that. Certainly there'd be an argument for delaying such a purchase.

Taiwan has placed an order for more missiles so they can all sail with a full load.

They don't need any more than that for the moment. The Taiwanese government normally requests plenty of ammunition, but the KMT often cut it out to make the package "affordable". Taiwan can't afford to buy huge stockpiles of missiles in one go because they'd all fall out of service at the same time. So in regards to things like AMRAAMs, they buy them in batches - doubtless another batch will be ordered in a few years. Ordering in batches also allows for more advanced types to be bought.

Plus I doubt Washington would approve a sale of something like 400 in one go anyway.

That is certainly not a credible argument. They don't really need anything at the moment because they're not at war. However, if China attacked there wouldn't be any time to argue over buying more missiles. They'd have to work with what they have and that won't last them very long.

A war could happen at the drop of a hat, so arguing that they should purchase in small batches because they would otherwise all fall out of service at the same time is just ridiculous. None of that will matter if China were to attack today. Taiwan would quickly run dry of missiles, while China would have ample ammunition to send the Taiwanese air force and navy to the bottom of the Straits.