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D
Deleted member 675
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I'm not sure if this is hilarious or just downright depressing.
I wouldn't reach for the knife to slit your wrists just yet.
First of all, the article quotes an opinion piece I read a few days ago - it's not independent research. More importantly, as far as I understand it the State Department can't veto the sale of the items approved in the 2001 arms deal as it has already been approved by the White House. It may be the case that technically it has to sign a few pieces of paper, but that would be an administrative point.
If it kept delaying doing this, there would be a huge uproar in Congress (someone might suggest freezing a certain department's budget), and the White House itself would probably instruct State to get on with it, or else. So although it may get away with not advancing this for a little while longer, if it seriously delayed things further it would be asking for trouble.
Actually having re-read the original article, there's nothing to suggest that the State Department is actively refusing to process the P-3C Orions and PAC-3 upgrades. More that, as he put it:
U.S. bureaucracy has gotten out of the habit of moving Taiwan defense cases
So it appears State is being slow, not vetoing the purchase. This is probably you're usual journalist mis-reading/exaggerating someone else's comments.
What the article did suggest was that State was objecting to the F-16 deal. But again, it can't veto it - apparently the Pentagon was able to bypass State's complaints over the approval of more AIM-120s and Mavericks to Taiwan last year. This suggests that State can only use its influence to try to stop sales, not block them completely.
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Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
More importantly, as far as I understand it the State Department can't veto the sale of the items approved in the 2001 arms deal as it has already been approved by the White House. It may be the case that technically it has to sign a few pieces of paper, but that would be an administrative point.
Apparently not:
The Foreign Assistance Act (FAA) and the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) vest authority for the sale or grant of USG-origin defense articles, services and technical data in the U.S. President. The authority to provide transfer consent was originally delegated to the Secretary of State by Executive Order No. 12163 and was subsequently delegated to Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security (T) under State Department Delegation of Authority No. 145, February 4, as amended, and re-delegated to PM by T on January 13, 1992. In 1995 this authority was delegated to the Assistant Secretary for Political-Military Affairs (PM). Since this delegation, PM's Office of Regional Security and Arms Transfers (RSAT) has been charged with handling arms transfers and third party transfers, disposal, and change of end-use involving U.S. -origin equipment procured via the U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) Program or grant program. All PM/RSAT arms transfers and third party transfer cases undergo an interagency review prior to PM/RSAT recommending an approval or denial to the Assistant Secretary of Political-Military Affairs. PM's Directorate of Defense Trade Control (DDTC) is responsible for authorizing all transfers involving U.S.-origin military equipment acquired through direct commercial sales.
Source:
If it kept delaying doing this, there would be a huge uproar in Congress
They just have to delay it another day or two and Congress will adjourn for a month. Then they can just delay by saying Congress can't approve it and then resume delaying when Congress meets again.
(someone might suggest freezing a certain department's budget)
That would really just be them doing what they are doing. The Congress hasn't approved any funds for any of the departments. Besides, no one's going to freeze the State Department over an arms deal for Taiwan.
and the White House itself would probably instruct State to get on with it, or else.
I don't think Bush will spend much time worrying about it. He may actually be encouraging it. The Bush Administration has been ratcheting up pressure on Taiwan recently, apparently he's not happy with Chen's constant independence talk.
So although it may get away with not advancing this for a little while longer, if it seriously delayed things further it would be asking for trouble.
Like I said, no one here really cares. Chances are this will be delayed for a month at least. Who knows what they'll do after that. Though at this rate, I doubt Taiwan will be getting what it needs to defend itself. After all, this is a significantly downgraded deal that went through a lot of trouble just getting to us.
I seriously doubt they'll be getting Apaches and extra Falcons the way things are going.
D
Deleted member 675
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Apparently not
In that case I'm not sure why they let the missile purchase go through when they were opposed. As I said, they may have the technical right but that doesn't mean they necessarily can veto it.
I don't think Bush will spend much time worrying about it. He may actually be encouraging it. The Bush Administration has been ratcheting up pressure on Taiwan recently, apparently he's not happy with Chen's constant independence talk.
He hasn't said anything from what I've read. It's the State Department that's been annoyed. But as it "represents" the White House in regards to foreign affairs that's often reported as being the administration itself.
Chances are this will be delayed for a month at least. Who knows what they'll do after that.
If they didn't finalise the deal it would seriously undermine Taiwan-US relations. If State wants to control what Taipei does, the worst thing it could do is screw it over on arms it's already promised to sell. It would make it more difficult to approve other elements of the 2001 arms sale and get Taiwan to stop missile projects like the HF-IIE that State also doesn't like. Taipei would also simply stop listening to US objections about what it does.
I would be very surprised if this deal isn't finalised later this year. On the F-16s, it is believed that the US will approve the sale after either the Taiwanese Presidential election.
Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
In that case I'm not sure why they let the missile purchase go through when they were opposed. As I said, they may have the technical right but that doesn't mean they necessarily can veto it.
Well, it seems this was because of Taiwan twice recently trying to submit an application for U.N. membership as "Taiwan". The missile deal probably went in before much of this rhetoric from Chen. Plus, those aren't as big a deal.
He hasn't said anything from what I've read. It's the State Department that's been annoyed. But as it "represents" the White House in regards to foreign affairs that's often reported as being the administration itself.
I think Bush does back them up, though. He has been pushing for better ties with China for a while, which probably means ties with Taiwan will suffer. He has also been distancing himself from Chen.
If they didn't finalise the deal it would seriously undermine Taiwan-US relations. If State wants to control what Taipei does, the worst thing it could do is screw it over on arms it's already promised to sell. It would make it more difficult to approve other elements of the 2001 arms sale and get Taiwan to stop missile projects like the HF-IIE that State also doesn't like. Taipei would also simply stop listening to US objections about what it does.
It seems to be the way things are headed now anyway.
I would be very surprised if this deal isn't finalised later this year. On the F-16s, it is believed that the US will approve the sale after either the Taiwanese Presidential election.
Well, only time will tell. A lot can happen in a few months.
D
Deleted member 675
Guest
Well, it seems this was because of Taiwan twice recently trying to submit an application for U.N. membership as "Taiwan".
No chance. It's probably Hill sucking up to Beijing because of the North Koreans. Which is ironic given China was part of the reason Pyongyang got the nukes in the first place by protecting it.....
He has been pushing for better ties with China for a while, which probably means ties with Taiwan will suffer.
No reason to suspect he's willing to cut Taiwan off as a result.
It seems to be the way things are headed now anyway.
Then State is so monumentality stupid it would deserve the huge amount of trouble it's cooking up for itself. If it thought this was annoying, it could easily get much worse.
Vlad Plasmius
Junior Member
Well, I think this is getting a little bit too political.
However, this certainly doesn't bode well for Taiwan's defense spending in the future. Not only will it have to get by the KMT, but also our State Department.
Who knows, we may even put a lot of delays on this shipment.
However, this certainly doesn't bode well for Taiwan's defense spending in the future. Not only will it have to get by the KMT, but also our State Department.
Who knows, we may even put a lot of delays on this shipment.
The perils of buying arms from the US is getting entangled in the approval process, and being denied a larger stockpile of parts and munitions.
Taiwan cannot perpetually depend on the US for its defense needs. They either need to find ways to source weapons from alternate countries (very difficult), or attempt to reverse-engineer, license, or develop some of the systems domestically, which is very costly but at least there would be fewer restrictions.
Taiwan's shipyards and aerospace industry is perfectly capable of producing frigate-sized warships and assembling mid-tech combat aircraft. But I don't see the political will to spend the kind of resources needed for major domestic defense industry growth. With the recent passage of social security benefits the government will have even less $ to spend on defense. =/
Taiwan cannot perpetually depend on the US for its defense needs. They either need to find ways to source weapons from alternate countries (very difficult), or attempt to reverse-engineer, license, or develop some of the systems domestically, which is very costly but at least there would be fewer restrictions.
Taiwan's shipyards and aerospace industry is perfectly capable of producing frigate-sized warships and assembling mid-tech combat aircraft. But I don't see the political will to spend the kind of resources needed for major domestic defense industry growth. With the recent passage of social security benefits the government will have even less $ to spend on defense. =/
The perils of buying arms from the US is getting entangled in the approval process, and being denied a larger stockpile of parts and munitions.
Taiwan cannot perpetually depend on the US for its defense needs. They either need to find ways to source weapons from alternate countries (very difficult), or attempt to reverse-engineer, license, or develop some of the systems domestically, which is very costly but at least there would be fewer restrictions.
Taiwan's shipyards and aerospace industry is perfectly capable of producing frigate-sized warships and assembling mid-tech combat aircraft. But I don't see the political will to spend the kind of resources needed for major domestic defense industry growth. With the recent passage of social security benefits the government will have even less $ to spend on defense. =/
Taiwan should buy all its defense needs from the United States, just to keep the friendship and trust between the two states. In the future and as China continues to grow, Taiwan can forget about attempting to beat China in the arms-race, and instead rely on the American umbrella for defense.
D
Deleted member 675
Guest
But I don't see the political will to spend the kind of resources needed for major domestic defense industry growth. With the recent passage of social security benefits the government will have even less $ to spend on defense.
Taiwan's budget hasn't been squeezed by the recent social security legislation from what I understand. The requested defence budget is set to increase to about $10 billion or so for 2008 - there is consensus to raise it to and keep it at about 3% of GDP, maybe 3.5% if necessary. That should be a sustainable level for the foreseeable future.
Also if the F-16 deal were not approved, it is expected the ROCAF would opt for the IDF fleet to be upgraded. In the coming years the ROCN is going to build a new class of ship, the Kuang-Hua V. Various foreign designs have been offered and they would be built in Taiwan. The ROCN is expected to select a final design in the next few years and then start production.
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Vlad, I will simply end by saying that I am not as pessimistic as you at the moment. I think the current orders will be approved before the end of the year and fairly swiftly actioned. I also think the F-16 order will be approved. Maybe not until after the Taiwanese Presidential election, but before Bush leaves office.
The US, in my view, is still willing to provide Taiwan with weapons to defend itself. I don't see a few delays as a reason for real concern. After all, pretty much all parts of the administration were pushing for Taiwan to pass the 2007 defence budget as ammended. It was warmly welcomed when it was approved. If Bush et al had been planning to significantly stall notification to Congress, etc they would have bemoaned the cutting of the PAC-3 batteries and funds for the SSK R&D/construction. As it was, the reception was mostly positive.
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