Taiwan Military News Thread

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Deleted member 675

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When have they actually blocked progress on such shipments to Taiwan? I don't believe they have.

How do you know that? Taiwan has had trouble getting all sorts of things authorised for sale in the past. Sometimes it's the White House, but maybe the State Department has done its best to throw a monkey wrench in the past.

As I've pointed out, the State Department is dragging its feet - it hasn't unilaterally vetoed any more sales or deliveries to Taiwan.

They didn't seem to make such a fuss over the Kidds.

I suppose if they did it all the time they would look silly, especially over re-conditioned ships.

Certainly there'd be an argument for delaying such a purchase.

It depends which way you look at it. Besides, this may just be pressure to show Taiwan is serious about self-defence and get other sales moving. I.e. they'd be satisfied if the ships were deferred but things like the F-16s approved in way of compensation.

That is certainly not a credible argument. They don't really need anything at the moment because they're not at war. However, if China attacked there wouldn't be any time to argue over buying more missiles.

If the US refused to send in extra supplies, Taiwan wouldn't be able to hold on anyway. It would need a very large stockpile, bigger than what it could afford to buy in one go, to continue without US military aid.

A war could happen at the drop of a hat, so arguing that they should purchase in small batches because they would otherwise all fall out of service at the same time is just ridiculous.

Vlad, it is not ridiculous. I keep telling you, Taiwan doesn't have the budget for a huge order. More importantly, you're assuming the US would approve a sale that big - I don't think it would. I think Washington's policy is to sell in modest numbers so as to retain a level of influence over Taipei and not panic China, which might fear that a stockpile order was a prelude to conflict/constitutional change/etc.

The batch order method has also worked in Taiwan's favour so far, because now it has access to the C-7.
 

unknauthr

Junior Member
More News Coverage of Possible Aegis Destroyer Deal

I came across further coverage of the proposed Aegis destroyer deal:
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It's an interesting concept, I just have trouble seeing it near-term. Taiwan has not yet won official US approval for the 66 F-16s that have been requested, and the White House is reportedly miffed that Taiwan waited six years to approve even a partial package of weapons first offered for export in 2001. The time may not be right for an Aegis deal just yet.
 

The_Zergling

Junior Member
When have they actually blocked progress on such shipments to Taiwan? I don't believe they have.

Perhaps not the State Department specifically, but the US attitude towards weapons sales - particularly the submarines - has not been exactly helpful. It seems fairly obvious that the US does not fully trust its 'ally' to keep American technology from the PRC - again, submarines are a big part of it. Just looking at this issue from a Taiwanese standpoint, they have been forced to run through a bureaucratic obstacle course when really the US should have just called the whole thing off or changed their stance drastically.

Taiwan has been trying to get submarines for quite some time... (since 1969, if I remember correctly) The US rejected the original request to lease 4 of them, but later agreed to sell 2 WWII subs. The Netherlands sold Taiwan 2 more advanced subs a decade later, but generally European nations have declined Taiwan's money. (China is obviously a more lucrative market)

Realistically only the US is available for weaponry - and I think there are several reasons why Taiwan will never operate another US sub, at least a half-modern one. I think most of us know that the US hasn't built diesel subs since the 60s, when the Navy made the nuclear transition. And for domestic reasons, it's quite possible that if Congress sees the diesel sub's cheaper price tag after American shipyards begin building conventional submarines, nuclear production *may* take a hit.

The US demanding the Taiwan legislature to commit to the originally 12 billion submarine program with upfront funding was simply lucrative. 8 top-notch European subs would go for roughly 5 billion.

In all likelihood Pacific Command simply doesn't want Taiwan to have submarines - the US probably expects it would have to intervene anyhow in the event of a full scale invasion, and Taiwanese subs in the strait would just hamper US ASW efforts. Giving Taiwan a price that was double the original expectations was basically the easiest way to kill the deal. Frankly it was pretty cruel... finally releasing submarines, and making it impossible for the LY to buy them. 130 of the LY had a clear position that crossed party lines - no local role, no appropriation of funds. No responsible legislature in the world would pay more than 10 billion US dollars for something that was not clearly defined - not when they don't know what they're getting.

Vlad, it is not ridiculous. I keep telling you, Taiwan doesn't have the budget for a huge order. More importantly, you're assuming the US would approve a sale that big - I don't think it would. I think Washington's policy is to sell in modest numbers so as to retain a level of influence over Taipei and not panic China, which might fear that a stockpile order was a prelude to conflict/constitutional change/etc.

The batch order method has also worked in Taiwan's favour so far, because now it has access to the C-7.

Seconded. While I'm not a fan of some stupid purchase decisions (like having 120 AMRAAMs for 150 F-16s) going by batches is the only realistic way to go. Given that it's been harder and harder economically for Taiwan to buy things (I think 2001 began its first negative GDP growth in history) it's hard to pass a huge military budget in the LY. And yes, the US is deathly afraid of "provoking" China so it tries to give Taiwan just enough to make China think twice, but not enough to actually be reliably effective.
 

Clouded Leopard

Junior Member
@Zergling:
At least there is some hope that by then Taiwan's LY would have abandoned squandering hard earned tax payer's money in an insane ever more lost arms race

Are you kidding? Taiwan's LY abandoned the arms race ever since April 2001.


On the topic of submarines, it's funny that the US agreed to sell submarines to Taiwan which it could not build, while at the time turning down Aegis, which it could indeed build. Subs are plenty provocative in their own right, and just as likely to irk Beijing. Selling Taiwan $12 billion submarines but not selling $5 billion Aegis?
 
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Vlad Plasmius

Junior Member
How do you know that?

I don't, that's why I was asking. I never saw anything about delays quite as serious as this and I saw nothing about the State Department stepping into stop arms purchases from going through.

It depends which way you look at it.

I'm considering how it might appear to people in Taiwan.

If the US refused to send in extra supplies, Taiwan wouldn't be able to hold on anyway. It would need a very large stockpile, bigger than what it could afford to buy in one go, to continue without US military aid.

You seem to think I'm suggesting that they just buy a bunch and stop. I'm suggesting they stop trying to buy every new fighter jet and every new ship and focus on getting the armaments their current jets and ships need.

This isn't about buying missiles so they can store them all in factories and let them collect dust. This is about letting each ship and aircraft have a full armament every time it goes into battle for at least a week. The way things are now, they can't do that. There should be at least twice as many AMRAAMs as there are F-16s. That's not excessive, I think that's crucial. AMRAAM is the best weapon Taiwan has right now against a Chinese air attack. However, China can throw far more aircraft at them then they have AMRAAMs and not all of those are going to be guaranteed a hit or guaranteed to be available for use.

If Taiwan was attacked now their weapons stock would last a day maybe two. I don't think anyone accepts that as a reasonable time limit for Taiwan.
 

Clouded Leopard

Junior Member
There should be at least twice as many AMRAAMs as there are F-16s.

With Taiwan's recent order, the ROCAF will have a total of 338 AMRAAM missiles for its 146 F-16s. You have your 2:1 ratio right there.

If Taiwan was attacked now their weapons stock would last a day maybe two.

AMRAAMs aren't the only thing; Taiwan also has upwards of 700 Sparrows and over a thousand Sidewinders. Admittedly these are less modern rounds, but they're still there. And Taiwan has an overload of Magics and Micas for its Mirage 2000 fighters - something like 600 and 900 total respectively.
 
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Deleted member 675

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On the topic of submarines, it's funny that the US agreed to sell submarines to Taiwan which it could not build, while at the time turning down Aegis, which it could indeed build. Subs are plenty provocative in their own right, and just as likely to irk Beijing. Selling Taiwan $12 billion submarines but not selling $5 billion Aegis?

I don't think Bush thought it would cost $12 billion. The problem was that the assumption was based on the situation in the 1990s, when it might have been possible to get them from a third-party and sell them indirectly.

However, the $12 billion is essentially a guess at what it would cost for the US to design and build its own submarines. Lower estimates have been made (about $7-8 billion?) if a European company can be convinced to license their designs - that would make it easier than trying to get countries to approve manufacturing in that country.
 

Totoro

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I expect that you are quite right FuManChu, I just find myself giving into pessimism sometimes when these sorts of things occurr.

PErhaps i misunderstood this but I don't believe reunification of prc and taiwan is a pessimistic outcome. The way china is growing, and taiwain is pretty much staying the same, it really is only a matter of how and when the reuinification will happen. In that regard, it would be a pessimistic outcome if such a reuinification happened through war, and an optimistic outcome if it was a peaceful reintegration. Personally, I see more political reforms in China down the road. Eventually, it will become taiwan's interest to reunite with the mainland, albeit probably with some dose of autonomy.

Militarily, all these deals concerning new f-16s, aegis ships, subs, etc. are a drop in a bucket. They may mean something if taiwan got them tomorrow, but since history has taught us that such deals take a long, long time - the benefit taiwan will enjoy from them in 2015 won't be nearly as great. In the long term it is inevitable - militarily, taiwan will just fall more and more behind china.
 

Clouded Leopard

Junior Member
As much as I would like to be optimistic, Taiwan should probably expect a hard deal from China. Beijing will be very anxious to squash out all remnants of "Taiwan Independence" once and for all as soon as it gets its hands on the island. Taiwan's different from Hong Kong - Hong Kong never really threatened to secede from the mainland. Taiwan will likely have less freedom of media and be ruled more rigorously. I'm very dubious of the idea of reunification.


Okay, this is turning political now, I guess we need to keep it military-related.......
 
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