South Korea collapsed into the Pusan Pocket at one point.
I wouldn't be surprised if the SAA does a South Korea in all ways when they retake the land. Assad is almost as brutal as Syngman Rhee and Park Chung Hee. Almost.
Syrian Civil War
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South Korea collapsed into the Pusan Pocket at one point.
I wouldn't be surprised if the SAA does a South Korea in all ways when they retake the land. Assad is almost as brutal as Syngman Rhee and Park Chung Hee. Almost.
South Korea had the backing of a United Nations force of almost 400,000 soldiers. It was the American lead landing at Incheon that turned the tide of the war in SK's favor. Assad survived the first phase of the Syrian Civil War precisely because of the many regional actors that were willing to back him.
Now Hezbollah has been thrashed by Israel, Iran has just proven to be an incredibly weak nation, its militas are at the mercy of American and Israeli airstrikes, and Ukraine is still taking up the bulk of Russia's offensive combat capabilities. Maybe Russian mercenaries can launch a counter attack out of left field akin to Incheon, but right now the reality on the ground is Assad has minimal willing foreign backers and the bulk of the fighting rests on what's left of the SAA.
Considering their inability to hold Hama despite having blunted an overheated HTS offensive, establishing a security perimeter, and having superior armor as well as some air support, there is much to doubt in their ability to hold Homs or even god forbid, Damascus.
SAA is Sunni led by Alawite officers. But Syrian Republican Guard is 90% Alawite who will be killed or enslaved if they lose, so they are extremely motivated to hold the coastal strip (majority Alawite) and Hama to connect it to Damascus. Russian airbase is also in the middle of Alawite territory.
Before we go into the details of which group of people like which government remember this from 2011:
This whole war absolutely is a sectarian conflict and HTS are hard-line Salafi Islamists trying to remove very much hated and despised "heretics" from Syria, PR stunts aside. "Popularity" or any related mechanism does not work in such a divided tribal-ish society.
The sectarian nature of the conflict was already so clear to all that back then people thought he would just retreat to the Alawite homelands in Latakia.
You're only seeing one side of the story. I do not discount the HTS getting their welcoming as we can see on the social media. But we have seen these too 13 years ago. There are always a certain section of the Syrian population who will align with the ideals of the HTS, including those released prisoners whom we have seen celebrating with HTS. What we don't see enough are the stories of the loyalists and minorities who won't be treated nearly as well these dissidents. Some of them may even feign support for the rebels because what choice do they really have?
What I will agree with you is that complete military incompetence as we have witnessed with the SAA in the last few days is a powerful way to lose your mandate to rule. It applied for numerous Chinese dynasties for millennia, it applied to Chiang's KMT. It will apply to Bashar al-Assad too. Even if you have good ideals, being unable to defend your own state and people is not an easily forgivable mistake, even if you're innocent.
You said that Syrians will flock to HTS because Assad can't bring prosperity. Yes, I agree that that will definitely happen, and it is happening right now. People do dumb things like these, because most will always choose the shortcut when confronted with adversity. It is up to the rulers and elites to manage them, and Assad have failed them yet again. But do not be mistaken that HTS is going to bring them to the promised land. These terrorists have brutally ruled over Northern Syria for 4 years before. All industry in Aleppo had been plundered and never returned. There was no economy to speak of, just a terrorist gangland who rules at gunpoint. These Syrians who embraced HTS have short memories. If they think that Assad is bad, and want HTS again, then that is their choice to suffer. One important point that you've missed out is that HTS is not an indigenous Syrian movement like what the Taliban is to the Afghans. It is a foreign terrorist group composed in large parts, foreigners. These foreigners are invaders and they will have little care for the original Syrians, similar to the Zionists having little care for the Palestinians.
If Assad falls, then Syria will become a Medieval failed state like Libya. Its not the end of the world for Russia and China, but Islamic terrorism will become an even bigger menace than it already is for them. If anyone thinks that they'll go after Israel first, they're living in deluded fantasy. They're falling to same the lies and narratives by the West, Israel, Qatar, and Turkey, just like the rest of the pro-Palestine sheeps who go along with this anti-Assad BS since 2011. It doesn't matter what kinda monster Assad actually is, if these Western-aligned terrorists takeover Syria, they are going after Iran and Central Asia next. Then China's BRI plans will be under real threat. Look at the bigger picture and connect the dots for once.
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Not looking good for Syria again. Apparently the rebels had bypassed the bombed-out ar-Rastan bridge using a nearby dam.
Turkish media reports that the rebels have entered Tabiseh, only 8km from Homs city center without apparent resistance.
Turkish media reports that the rebels have entered Tabiseh, only 8km from Homs city center without apparent resistance.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
That is true.
How does our lack of involvement compare with America sending Warthogs to help them fight and Turkey organizing thier whole terrorist revolution?
But we are in no need to build anything for anyone, especially not a country that has no economic potential and is infested by the propaganda of countries what wish China harm.
How is China building things for a piss poor country full of militants that are under the control of US and Turkey a win for us? Even if we were neutral, how would they pay for it? By promising us oil? Terrorist leader pledges 20 years of oil shipments to China for us to build them a bridge; 5 days after we finish it, he gets killed in a drone strike. Israel's like, "My bad; we thought he was a different dude with a big beard and turban in sandals." Next guy's like, "Bridge? What bridge? I'm pretty sure that was always there."
If the terrorists end up taking Syria, we can just leave them to live in the rubble they created. Maybe they will get tired of living like that and have another revolution to become anti-Western again and perhaps it will be worth our time to step in then. After all, the West doesn't build shit for anybody; we all know that. They can't even build things for themselves anymore.
"Baltimore bridge accident ship Dali arrives in China for repairs"
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The people of the Levant are something else, absolutely lovely:
When Hama's police chief said that everything was fine, the next day a revolutionary sat on his chair:
Cousin of assad to their loyalists: "Forgive us, we let you down"
When Hama's police chief said that everything was fine, the next day a revolutionary sat on his chair:
Cousin of assad to their loyalists: "Forgive us, we let you down"
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Syrian Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Leader Abu Mohammed al-Joulani to CNN:
This regime (Assad) is dead; we will establish a government based on a people’s council. No one has the right to erase another group.
These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them.
Syria deserves a governing system that is institutional, not one where a single ruler makes arbitrary decisions. We are talking about a larger project – we are talking about building Syria.
A person in their twenties will have a different personality than someone in their thirties or forties, and certainly someone in their fifties. This is human nature.
I really wonder what kind of deal they made?
The pleading has already started:
1240 carrots were handed out to regime elements:
This regime (Assad) is dead; we will establish a government based on a people’s council. No one has the right to erase another group.
These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them.
Syria deserves a governing system that is institutional, not one where a single ruler makes arbitrary decisions. We are talking about a larger project – we are talking about building Syria.
A person in their twenties will have a different personality than someone in their thirties or forties, and certainly someone in their fifties. This is human nature.
I really wonder what kind of deal they made?
The pleading has already started:
1240 carrots were handed out to regime elements:
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