Sino-Myanmar Border Conflicts

Ultra said:

You don't need to have aircrafts patrol the airspace all the time to know hostile or unknown aircrafts are coming. If you have radar networks set up properly, you can have full coverage of what's coming at you at ALL TIME. Namely, the US and Australia both has active OTH systems (Over-The-Horizon radar) that can detect any incoming aircrafts over 3000~5000 km away. The Australian's JORN is so accurate it can actually detect fluctuation of the sea wave, or Chinese missile launch 5500 km away. With OTH systems in place, any aircraft coming your way you can quickly vector in interceptors before they are even coming close to your border.

The thing is, I thought China has quite a few OTH systems... supposedly. I guess they are not pointed the right way

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Over the horizon radar is considered useful for long range use against very long range contacts, yes, however I do not believe that any OTH has been developed in a way which can be operable with the clutter discrimination against a low altitude target that a true look down radar from AEW&C can do.
There have been some quite amazing claims of Australian OTH radar sets being able to detect planes landing in east timor 2600km away, however they're still obviously operating a fleet of new AEW&C.

So I think in a tactical and operational, real time sense, AEW&C is still the dominant platform of choice.

I do think the PLAAF can invest in large long endurance blimps in future with radar sets. Maintaining a high altitude with a large look down AESA, they could provide the kind of long endurance large area coverage the PLA needs... but this is all in the future.

Fact is at present the PLA simply doesn't have the capability to monitor its borders to the detail that it would like. Namely, against low flying targets against clutter and other physical impediments such as hills.

Bltizo said:

Okay, but that doesn't make your suggestion of posturing an invasion sized force seem any better. If anything, it will take a lot of time to amass that kind of force, and it may be perceived like you describe as an unrelated separate action to the Burmese incursions and bombing.

The PLA is already reacting quite quickly based on what information and intent can be accurately determined -- they're setting up more extensive ground based air defense, sending in troops supported by artillery and vertical aviation, and have enhanced air patrols to a degree that we do not know of. I suspect air strike elements in the region are also at elevated alert levels.

If China wants to do anything more militarily they will need to first confirm that Burma's government is determined to continue being petulant, because once they do something like amassing an invasion sized force on the border, or conducting air strikes across the border, then there is really no going back.

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Its actually quite simple. Burma is run by a Junta.
Just eye for an eye measure is good enough - bomb that Junta's residence. It should send the message clear enough, maybe even make him run like Gaddafi back in 80s where he camped out in the desert!

Brumby said:

So does it mean when the Myanmar authorities said that it was not their plane (meaning the wreckage), there is some truth to that?

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Well, we know myanmar aircraft have entered chinese air space on multiple occasions over the days preceding the bombing, and there was an accompanying rumour that a myanmar jet had crashed, with PLA, PAP and volunteer search teams going off to find it.

It just happened that the photo claimed to be a Myanmar Mig-29 came out soon after the myanmar govt denial. Now that we know the photo is actually an old photo of something else entirely, it does give the myanmar govt a degree of reprieve, however the question still remains as to what the crashed aircraft is (if there is a crashed aircraft in the first place).

A bigger question also arises as to where the Myanmar rebels managed to get a jet from in the first place? We can also confirm that aircraft have entered chinese air space from across the border multiple times and dropped bombs on at least two occasions, possibly more, suggesting that there is some relatively well trained and equipped logistics behind the jets, and do we know if any of the rebels have this kind of sophistication, let alone pilots to fly the planes in a relatively competent manner?

So I'd say at most, the lack of photos of a crashed jet does not provide the killing blow to the claim that the bombing was not done by a Myanmar govt jet, however the sword of damocles still hangs over them due to a variety of other aforementioned reasons.

Also, regarding OTH radar -- such radars are highly susceptible to natural phenomena; solar changes, and even sunrise and sunset and other factors can impede their operation. They're just not really that reliable as a primary method of detection and tracking for an operational use without more accurate and reliable support from more traditional radar types.

Brumby said:

I had always wondered why MH370 wasn't picked up by JORN. Any idea?

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It was. Do you seriously think with JORN and various OTH systems (there was one in Taiwan that covers most of China) US has in place (they are all networked) they wouldn't know where MH370 went? The truth of the whole MH370 fiasco is that it was SHOT DOWN accidentally by one of the military either friendly to US or is USN (similar to the "shooting down of

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. The MH370 probably deviated from its flightpath and one of the patroling USN boat saw it and thought its a threat and shot it down - and then realizing the mistake and to prevent it from becoming a international fiasco so they cover it up. Well, that's just my theory...
Anyway, back to topic.

Look at the geography.

The US and Australia are both largely surrounded by oceans, so they have the luxury of being able to tell from a long way off if aircraft are operating outside of the norm.

For China, who shares long land boarders with many countries, that is simply not an option.

Planes can fly right up to the boarder and still be in someone else's Soverign airspace.

You have effectively zero warning time, you have no right telling others where they can fly in their own airspace, and its both incredibly aggressive and wasteful to scramble CAP every time someone else's planes fly close to the boarder in their own airspace. Especially against friendly countries.

Over land, you also have complext geological situations to deal with that does not exist over the seas.

The region in question is fairly mountainous, and the planes in question were on CAS and/or COIN missions. That means they were flying low, so would likely have been weaving on and off of radar screens.

And lastly, even the US air defences are not as infallible or secure as some seem to think.

For many years now a regular tactic of drug cartels was to fly contraband across boarders using small, light civilian aircraft.

If a subsonic Cessina can do it, so could a supersonic military fighter jet.

If a country like Mexico really wanted to, they could launch a surprise bombing strike on the US and probably hit all sorts of targets along the boarder before the USAF could respond.

Its not the active defense in place that stops them, its the political, economic and diplomatic relationships in place, and the terrible retribution the US would take against such an act.

Its the same situation with China dn Mynanmar.

The bombings would almost certainly have been a mistake, likely caused by faulty and/or obsolete equipment compounded by poor training.

The geography meant the PLA had no chance of intercepting the Myanmar fighters before they cross the boarder, and the friendly relationship between the two countries meant there not no assets forward based close enough to respond in time when the incursion did take place.

The friendly relationship also meant that even if there were fighters and/or SAM/AAA batteries in range, their standard ROE would not have allowed them to engage anyways.

The low flying nature and dumb iron bombs used would have meant the PLA would only have known a strike took place after reports from the scene filtered up.

China has now forward deployed fighters, and almost certainly changed the ROE of units in the area to give them much greater discretionary powers and set the bar for weapons release authorisation much lower.

That is the normal and measured response that China always takes.

I would really like to see those fuming about supposed weakness or lack of action to suggest what exactly the PLA could or should have done instead.

AssassinsMace said:

Well I never said to go invade. China amassed troops and equipment with tensions with Vietnam. They didn't invade. The Myanmar government will either think twice or they won't and it will be a trip-wire if their irresponsible attacks continue. If there's a neighbor that's begging for that kind of trouble, they should accept the price of retaliation.

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Massing troops to the border is a very very silly move. The last time China amass the troops to the southern border was against Vietnam - and they created a rift that has never been lifted til this day. The same can be said about Russian against Chinese during 60s border dispute where over 1 million soldiers was amass over the border. This type of move only create nationalism - something that the military junta of Myanmar wants because it will further centralize his power.

What China needs to do, is to directly threaten the Junta himself. The military junta is a hated person - to remove him or even threaten to remove him would be seen by the local population as a welcome move even. Where as amassing troops is seen as a existential threat to EVERY PERSON in that country. It will actually unify the country and draw China into a long draw out war where China cannot possibly win.

Bltizo said:

A bigger question also arises as to where the Myanmar rebels managed to get a jet from in the first place? We can also confirm that aircraft have entered chinese air space from across the border multiple times and dropped bombs on at least two occasions, possibly more, suggesting that there is some relatively well trained and equipped logistics behind the jets, and do we know if any of the rebels have this kind of sophistication, let alone pilots to fly the planes in a relatively competent manner?

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I am getting a bit confused. Where is this Myanmar rebels operating jets coming from? This is new news.

Bltizo said:

So I'd say at most, the lack of photos of a crashed jet does not provide the killing blow to the claim that the bombing was not done by a Myanmar govt jet, however the sword of damocles still hangs over them due to a variety of other aforementioned reasons.

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I remember somewhere in an earlier post that the Myanmar authorities claimed that the incident that caused the lives of 4 Chinese civilians was a result of rebel actions and not by them. It just seems to me that there are some confusion of facts on the ground and the need for patience to sort out the truth. If the incident resulting in the deaths of 4 innocent civilians was caused by the rebels, the blast zone presumably would be different between a bomb dropped from above vs. one created at ground zero.

Brumby said:

I am getting a bit confused. Where is this Myanmar rebels operating jets coming from? This is new news.



I remember somewhere in an earlier post that the Myanmar authorities claimed that the incident that caused the lives of 4 Chinese civilians was a result of rebel actions and not by them. It just seems to me that there are some confusion of facts on the ground and the need for patience to sort out the truth. If the incident resulting in the deaths of 4 innocent civilians was caused by the rebels, the blast zone presumably would be different between a bomb dropped from above vs. one created at ground zero.

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Occam's razor - which do you think is more plausible:

1. Kokang Rebels who is not known to have s somehow got hold of them, constructed airfields and have trained pilots to operate them. They flew the s and bombed a Chinese village near the border.

2. Myanmar military who had bought the s from China decades ago, accidentally flew into Chinese airspace and poorly-trained pilots who mistaken Chinese village for Kokang rebel village and bombed them.

Ultra said:

Occam's razor - which do you think is more plausible:

1. Kokang Rebels who is not known to have

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s somehow got hold of them, constructed airfields and have trained pilots to operate them. They flew the

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s and bombed a Chinese village near the border.

2. Myanmar military who had bought the

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s from China decades ago, accidentally flew into Chinese airspace and poorly-trained pilots who mistaken Chinese village for Kokang rebel village and bombed them.

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There are many ways to bomb a village besides using a plane.