Sino-Myanmar Border Conflicts

Ultra · Mar 15, 2015

Franklin said:
I never heard of these Kokang people before. Apperantly they are not only ethnic Chinese but they speak manderine of sorts and they are communists... well of sorts.

I think they are the remnant of some of the KMT (Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
- Taiwan) armies that were trapped and left behind during Chinese civil war.

Santikhiri's early history centered on the
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's
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trade, in which its distinctive population – The "lost army" of the
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's 93rd
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– became involved. At the conclusion of the
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in 1949, some remnants of the anti-communist
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(KMT) forces refused to surrender, including 278th Regiment of the 93rd Division and 709th Regiment of the 237th Division (led by General Li Kuo-hui).
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The troops fought its way out of
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in southwestern China, and its soldiers lived in Burma's (now
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) jungles."

They were heavily armed and battle hardened - since KMT could not repatriate them for very long time, a lot of them basically just settled down there. Because they are KMT and anti-communist - they are basically hot potato for China and Burma to handle. China doesn't want to and can't cross border to attack them without being seen as aggressor (which is also against their own "non-interference policy"); while Burma's army is too poorly equipe and poorly train to fight them. Burma also didn't want to anger China by attacking them as they are seen as "Chinese". For a long time they just fall through the crack with neither sides wants to touch that hot potato... that is until 2009.

Ultra · Mar 15, 2015

vesicles said:
But there is no major cities any where close to that area. It is mainly mountains and forests that are not even excessable by human. I don't think that is a major area of concern by China before this.

It would be a completely different story if someone tried to get close to the east coast of China. The EP-3 incident on the Hainan island would be a good example of that.

I don't think that's even a good excuse. It only shows a huge weakness in China's defense. It shows to the US war planners (or Indian) that the border near China and Myanmar is unprotected and SAM/radar coverage is severely insufficient.

I remember I seen a movie years ago (I can't remember the movie name or who was in it..) where US sent a special forces strike team into China to rescue some hostages from south of China while Chinese power plants were shut down (they bribed the plant managers). When I was watching that movie I remember I was actually laughing out loud thinking it is quite ludicrous that US can actually fly in several squads of special forces on Black Hawk into China and not get shot down.

Now that scenerio which looked like fantasy is actually a possibility! US can theoretically just disable all of China's power plants from the southern border with Tomahawk cruise missiles since there is no radar coverage there, and then sent in strike teams to further sabotage any important infrastructures with impunity! There is nothing PLA can do except sit and watch! BWAHAHAHAHA!! I am joking I am joking.. okay I am not.

EDIT: I remember the name of the movie... it was "Spy Game" with

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in it.

Blitzo · Mar 15, 2015

Ultra said:
I don't think that's even a good excuse. It only shows a huge weakness in China's defense. It shows to the US war planners (or Indian) that the border near China and Myanmar is unprotected and SAM/radar coverage is severely insufficient.

I remember I seen a movie years ago (I can't remember the movie name or who was in it..) where US sent a special forces strike team into China to rescue some hostages from south of China while Chinese power plants were shut down (they bribed the plant managers). When I was watching that movie I remember I was actually laughing out loud thinking it is quite ludicrous that US can actually fly in several squads of special forces on Black Hawk into China and not get shot down.

Now that scenerio which looked like fantasy is actually a possibility! US can theoretically just disable all of China's power plants from the southern border with Tomahawk cruise missiles since there is no radar coverage there, and then sent in strike teams to further sabotage any important infrastructures with impunity! There is nothing PLA can do except sit and watch! BWAHAHAHAHA!! I am joking I am joking.. okay I am not.

EDIT: I remember the name of the movie... it was "Spy Game" with
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in it.

I mean... you're not wrong. China simply doesn't have the resources to monitor all its borders with AEW&C, and the whole point of special forces is to exploit those gaps. Having a massive land border with many differing countries across cluttered terrain doesn't help.

Of course, during a war, all elements of the PLA would be at higher alert, so radars and sensors that might not be deployed in the field at peacetime would be out there during wartime, but even then the PLA simply doesn't have enough modern AEW&C to do round the clock surveillance of every border. In fact to suggest that would be feasible is ridiculous simply on the basis of how big China's borders are.

Now, the PLA facing Myanmar probably wasn't at a very state of high alert at all during the last month or so, which was a mistake someone on the chain of command made -- but since then they obviously are at a higher state of alertness, and I would invite any more Myanmar pilots to try and enter Chinese airspace again to see what the result will be.
What this incident really tells the US is the degree of alertness particular that PLA units facing Myanmar was at, as well as confirming that the capabilities of some particular PLA units are lacking compared to others -- all stuff that should have been suspected if not already confirmed.

Brumby · Mar 15, 2015

Bltizo said:
I mean... you're not wrong. China simply doesn't have the resources to monitor all its borders with AEW&C, and the whole point of special forces is to exploit those gaps. Having a massive land border with many differing countries across cluttered terrain doesn't help.

Of course, during a war, all elements of the PLA would be at higher alert, so radars and sensors that might not be deployed in the field at peacetime would be out there during wartime, but even then the PLA simply doesn't have enough modern AEW&C to do round the clock surveillance of every border. In fact to suggest that would be feasible is ridiculous simply on the basis of how big China's borders are.

Now, the PLA facing Myanmar probably wasn't at a very state of high alert at all during the last month or so, which was a mistake someone on the chain of command made -- but since then they obviously are at a higher state of alertness, and I would invite any more Myanmar pilots to try and enter Chinese airspace again to see what the result will be.
What this incident really tells the US is the degree of alertness particular that PLA units facing Myanmar was at, as well as confirming that the capabilities of some particular PLA units are lacking compared to others -- all stuff that should have been suspected if not already confirmed.

I think you guys are unnecessarily beating up the PLAAF because of some intrusion and reading too much into some minor incident where traditionally Myanmar is probably not considered high risk due to country relationship. I wouldn't discount there might be some tacit understanding that Myanmar would be conducting some near border activities against rebel bases. The problem could be when some shit hit the fan, officials on both sides are now trying to cover their own tracks.

Btw, what is this ROKAF F-5 thingy that you mentioned? Can you please elaborate.

plawolf · Mar 15, 2015

SteelBird said:
Is there possibility that the Chinese gov't are supporting the Kokang rebels? Where does Kokang get their weapon from? The rebels flee in to Chinese border whenever the Myanmar gov't chase them. Is that the reason why Myanmar war plane flew into China and bomb?

The Chinese Central government is most certainly not supporting them, and may well have given the Myanmar Junta the green light to launch their operation against the KoKang.

That does not mean some local officials or military officers might not be giving them cledestine aid and support because of corruption, local politics and/or a misplaced sense of ethnic unity.

When the KoKang escape into China, they most certainly do not do so as a military outfit. They would have hidden their weapons and gear and blended in with all the other refugees.

That may also be a reason China is repatriating refugees and denying international bodies and organisations access to the camps.

I would wager the PLA and other Chinese security agencies are taking a far closer look into the stories of military aged men amounts the refugees to check if they are in fact fleeing fighters.

What they would do with all the confirmed and suspected KoKang fighters would be the big question.

plawolf · Mar 15, 2015

LesAdieux said:
Fan Changlong, vice-chairman of the CMC, called the myanmar junta, demanded Myanmar to seriously investigate the incident, severely punish the perpetrators, apologize to and compensate the families of the victims. No further deadly stray fire incidents should happen or the Chinese military will take "firm and decisive action" to protect the safety of its people.

the response from the myanmar side surprised everyone: they said it's not their plane!

Well, that actually makes things so much easier for the PLA.

If I was in that meeting, I would have simply told him, thank you for clearing that up for us. Since its not your plane, you won't mind if we shoot it down the next time it so much as pokes its nose across the boarder then.

Blitzo · Mar 15, 2015

Brumby said:
I think you guys are unnecessarily beating up the PLAAF because of some intrusion and reading too much into some minor incident where traditionally Myanmar is probably not considered high risk due to country relationship. I wouldn't discount there might be some tacit understanding that Myanmar would be conducting some near border activities against rebel bases. The problem could be when some shit hit the fan, officials on both sides are now trying to cover their own tracks.

I agree that the border with Myanmar is definitely not very high risk, and I think even the PLA was caught off guard that they would be brazen enough to send planes over the border repeatedly, accident or not. Regardless I feel like the PLA and the military intelligence establishment should have been well informed enough to have put border units on higher alert.

And of course, Ultra is correct in saying that there are holes to the PLA's air defense which can be exploited by say, special forces units in helicopters. The nature of china's geography makes it so. But at the same time, that doesn't mean the vulnerabilities are as severe as he probably thinks they will be during war time.

Btw, what is this ROKAF F-5 thingy that you mentioned? Can you please elaborate.

A few pages back (post 23) there was a photo supposedly showing a Myanmar Mi-29 wreckage, but the photo was actually a crashed ROKAF F-5 from god knows when.

Brumby · Mar 15, 2015

Bltizo said:
A few pages back (post 23) there was a photo supposedly showing a Myanmar Mi-29 wreckage, but the photo was actually a crashed ROKAF F-5 from god knows when.

So does it mean when the Myanmar authorities said that it was not their plane (meaning the wreckage), there is some truth to that?

Ultra · Mar 15, 2015

Bltizo said:
+1, China simply doesn't have the resources to survey and patrol the airspace around all its borders the same way it does to particular important regions like SCS, ECS and yellow sea, or the border facing india, for example.
If anything this incident should serve as a good example of why continued full modernization of the PLA is needed.

US OTH-B and ROTHR Systems

You don't need to have aircrafts patrol the airspace all the time to know hostile or unknown aircrafts are coming. If you have radar networks set up properly, you can have full coverage of what's coming at you at ALL TIME. Namely, the US and Australia both has active OTH systems (Over-The-Horizon radar) that can detect any incoming aircrafts over 3000~5000 km away. The Australian's JORN is so accurate it can actually detect fluctuation of the sea wave, or Chinese missile launch 5500 km away. With OTH systems in place, any aircraft coming your way you can quickly vector in interceptors before they are even coming close to your border.

The thing is, I thought China has quite a few OTH systems... supposedly. I guess they are not pointed the right way

Brumby · Mar 15, 2015

Ultra said:
The Australian's JORN is so accurate it can actually detect fluctuation of the sea wave, or Chinese missile launch 5500 km away.

I had always wondered why MH370 wasn't picked up by JORN. Any idea?

Sino-Myanmar Border Conflicts

Ultra

Junior Member

Ultra

Junior Member

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

Brumby

Major

plawolf

Lieutenant General

plawolf

Lieutenant General

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

Brumby

Major

Ultra

Junior Member

Brumby

Major