Sino-Myanmar Border Conflicts

Fan Changlong, vice-chairman of the CMC, called the myanmar junta, demanded Myanmar to seriously investigate the incident, severely punish the perpetrators, apologize to and compensate the families of the victims. No further deadly stray fire incidents should happen or the Chinese military will take "firm and decisive action" to protect the safety of its people.

the response from the myanmar side surprised everyone: they said it's not their plane!

antiterror13 said:

I don't believe it was deliberate by Myanmar air force, it was most likely an accident of the Myanmar pilot who was flying the "warplane" due poor training . The pilot most likely made a mistake in his navigation (or navigation didn't work at all) and ended up flying into Chinese territory. It happened even to US air force during Vietnam War who had and still have some of the most advanced navigation equipment and training in the world, accidentally flying past North Vietnam and into China, and then getting shot down by the Chinese military.

I wouldn't be surprised the pilot and even the commander would get fired by Myanmar junta militar very soon if not fired already

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I agree. Poor training + unguided munition means that it is very easy to make mistakes. However, they should still exercise more caution given that they repeated crossed over the border! They are also very insincere when it comes to the actual apology.

Completely out of curiosity and have no intention of flame baiting but does PRC have any vested interest in this conflict between the Myanmar government and the guerrillas?

LesAdieux said:

the response from the myanmar side surprised everyone: they said it's not their plane!

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LOL.

hmmmmm, I think if the area become a separate country, PRC would have deep influence over it and would help the country immensely.
Myanmar is a very fragile country ... Burman race only dominant in the middle of the country, not in the north or south or east or even west.
It might end up become 4 countries ... Burma, Shan, Karen and maybe Kachin

SamuraiBlue said:

Completely out of curiosity and have no intention of flame baiting but does PRC have any vested interest in this conflict between the Myanmar government and the guerrillas?

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The central government in Beijing want quiet border and the refugees to be able to go back home. But the people in border region of Yunnan province have close family and business ties with the people across the border, so their interest are more complicated.

Bltizo said:

I think the evidence at this point would well validate a Chinese operation praying mantis style action against targets within Burma; airfields, arms depots, maybe even some command and control centers. JH-7As with KD-88s, H-6s with CJ-10Ks, or even a few SRBMs could be useful stand off weapons to deliver the message.

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That is quite unnecessary and puts the citizens of both countries at even greater risk should a wider conflict break out (and you can bet BBC and CNN won't spin the story to one of defense). As mentioned before, it is unknown if these attacks are government-backed or are carried out at the whims of the pilots.

Deploying KS-1 missiles and fighter jets, as well as warning Myanmar that further provocations will result in shootdowns, should be more than enough of a deterrent.

Bltizo said:

The question is how much China is interested in maintaining a working relationship with Burma. If the burmese smell the bacon, apologize and pay reparation then I would consider that as acceptable, but if they see the photo of their crashed Mig and still trying to BS then it will be increasingly intolerable for China to stand.

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At this stage, with Beijing capable of arming rebels to the teeth, it seems that Myanmar needs Beijing more than the latter needs the former; if these strikes are actually Myanmar-mandated, then it speaks volumes of how Myanmar wishes to keep relations by painting these bombings as "accidents".

AssassinsMace said:

I'm talking about enough to scare them like with tanks and troops ready to cross the border. Right now it just looks like a defensive measure.

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It doesn't hurt to employ anti-tank teams armed with HJ-11 or HJ-12.

vesicles said:

At this point, they should establish some kind of no-fly zone close to the border and well into Burma. Any Burmese military plane found in the zone will be shot down, no question asked. This would be good as it shows strength and at the same time telling people that "we don't want to harm anyone, but don't you ever think about hurting us". This would be good especially given the fact that Burmese have gone into China multiple times.

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No-fly-zones are not established in a sovereign nation's territory and gives a bad undertone to whatever action Beijing wishes to take henceforth.

SinoSoldier said:

That is quite unnecessary and puts the citizens of both countries at even greater risk should a wider conflict break out (and you can bet BBC and CNN won't spin the story to one of defense). As mentioned before, it is unknown if these attacks are government-backed or are carried out at the whims of the pilots.

Deploying KS-1 missiles and fighter jets, as well as warning Myanmar that further provocations will result in shootdowns, should be more than enough of a deterrent.

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Obviously my suggestion is dependent on having enough evidence to pin it on the government. The picture turned out to be a ROKAF F-5, so the situation has become more murky again.
And as I've repeatedly said, with the current limited evidence that we know of, I think the current deployment of PLA is a proportional and measured response to the situation.

At this stage, with Beijing capable of arming rebels to the teeth, it seems that Myanmar needs Beijing more than the latter needs the former; if these strikes are actually Myanmar-mandated, then it speaks volumes of how Myanmar wishes to keep relations by painting these bombings as "accidents".

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At this stage I have no idea what exact relationship China wants with Myanmar and vice versa. Just a year or so ago they seemed on quite friendly terms but the recent eruption of violence and allegations of China also dealing arms to some rebel groups and supposed involvement of chinese mercenaries makes the whole thing a mess. Not to mention Myanmar is seemingly intending to move towards the US a little, but China still has investments in Myanmar as well.

SinoSoldier said:

No-fly-zones are not established in a sovereign nation's territory and gives a bad undertone to whatever action Beijing wishes to take henceforth.

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Depends really on Myanmar's actions from now on. If they remain uncooperative and keep trying to send planes over the border I'd say China would be justified in setting a NFZ into Myanmar's territory.