Sino-Myanmar Border Conflicts

AssassinsMace · Mar 14, 2015

Bltizo said:
I'm not sure if posturing a force large enough to stage an invasion is wise if China isn't willing to actually invade.

Even if China were to conduct military action against Burma in retaliation, I would disagree with a ground based attack onto Burmese soil. I'd prefer stand off air strikes and maybe long range artillery.

The message to Burma should be "we have the ability to punish you in retaliation," but it also needs to be the the caveat that China isn't intending to invade and occupy Burmese territory across the border. In that sense, a comprehensive but sensibly sized ground presence alongside more intensive air patrols and readiness of air strike elements should be the way to go imo.

The problem with China is they're late in responding so it ends up not looking related. For example recently there were complaints by foreign corporations on China banning any purchases of their products by the government. That was actually a retaliatory response to the US banning any government entity from buying Chinese. Or how about Beijing ordering Chinese universities not to teach Western values. That was a response to scrutiny over China-sponsored Confucius Institutions on Western universities. Both responses from China came very late in the game probably because they didn't want too look too rash. But people with their short term memory saw it as simply China being protectionist out of the blue.

Before this incident I was a reading a news article about the internal trouble in Myanmar. When it came to these rebels, the article kept mentioning their Chinese heritage as if that was a negative. Myanmar is obviously playing the superpower rivalry card. China makes it out to be nothing, it's going to be treated as nothing and especially in the future. And it makes China weak if Myanmar continues to do it.

Blitzo · Mar 14, 2015

AssassinsMace said:
The problem with China is they're late in responding so it ends up not looking related. For example recently there were complaints by foreign corporations on China banning any purchases of their products by the government. That was actually a retaliatory response to the US banning any government entity from buying Chinese. Or how about Beijing ordering Chinese universities not to teach Western values. That was a response to scrutiny over China-sponsored Confucius Institutions on Western universities. Both responses from China came very late in the game probably because they didn't want too look too rash. But people with their short term memory saw it as simply China being protectionist out of the blue.

Before this incident I was a reading a news article about the internal trouble in Myanmar. When it came to these rebels, the article kept mentioning their Chinese heritage as if that was a negative. Myanmar is obviously playing the superpower rivalry card. China makes it out to be nothing, it's going to be treated as nothing and especially in the future. And it makes China weak if Myanmar continues to do it.

Okay, but that doesn't make your suggestion of posturing an invasion sized force seem any better. If anything, it will take a lot of time to amass that kind of force, and it may be perceived like you describe as an unrelated separate action to the Burmese incursions and bombing.

The PLA is already reacting quite quickly based on what information and intent can be accurately determined -- they're setting up more extensive ground based air defense, sending in troops supported by artillery and vertical aviation, and have enhanced air patrols to a degree that we do not know of. I suspect air strike elements in the region are also at elevated alert levels.

If China wants to do anything more militarily they will need to first confirm that Burma's government is determined to continue being petulant, because once they do something like amassing an invasion sized force on the border, or conducting air strikes across the border, then there is really no going back.

Blitzo · Mar 14, 2015

vesicles said:
At this point, they should establish some kind of no-fly zone close to the border and well into Burma. Any Burmese military plane found in the zone will be shot down, no question asked. This would be good as it shows strength and at the same time telling people that "we don't want to harm anyone, but don't you ever think about hurting us". This would be good especially given the fact that Burmese have gone into China multiple times.

I agree with setting up a no fly zone inside chinese airspace, but enforcing one in Burmese airspace is a whole other game, and would more or less set the road down for near complete degradation of Sino-Burmese relations.

Strategic military decisions like this need to be made in accordance with geopolitical intent, and this kind of military operation which cannot be "taken back" should only be conducted if China is willing to completely scrap its working relationship with Burma for the short term.

AssassinsMace · Mar 14, 2015

Bltizo said:
Okay, but that doesn't make your suggestion of posturing an invasion sized force seem any better. If anything, it will take a lot of time to amass that kind of force, and it may be perceived like you describe as an unrelated separate action to the Burmese incursions and bombing.

The PLA is already reacting quite quickly based on what information and intent can be accurately determined -- they're setting up more extensive ground based air defense, sending in troops supported by artillery and vertical aviation, and have enhanced air patrols to a degree that we do not know of. I suspect air strike elements in the region are also at elevated alert levels.

If China wants to do anything more militarily they will need to first confirm that Burma's government is determined to continue being petulant, because once they do something like amassing an invasion sized force on the border, or conducting air strikes across the border, then there is really no going back.

Well I never said to go invade. China amassed troops and equipment with tensions with Vietnam. They didn't invade. The Myanmar government will either think twice or they won't and it will be a trip-wire if their irresponsible attacks continue. If there's a neighbor that's begging for that kind of trouble, they should accept the price of retaliation.

Blitzo · Mar 14, 2015

AssassinsMace said:
Well I never said to go invade. China amassed troops and equipment with tensions with Vietnam. They didn't invade. The Myanmar government will either think twice or they won't and it will be a trip-wire if their irresponsible attacks continue. If there's a neighbor that's begging for that kind of trouble, they should accept the price of retaliation.

Yes I understand you're not saying that China should invade, but amassing a large invasion sized force on the border signals capability and their possible intent, so China will need to consider that the Burmese will see it as precluding possible invasion.

Basically what I'm saying is that your suggestion would make sense if there are signs that the Burmese are still not playing ball and if China was willing to degrade its relationship with Burma even more.
There is a difference in regards to posture between amassing a defensive deterrence force within one's borders (like China is doing now), and amassing a much larger force that appears capable of mounting an invasion very close to a border. Both send different messages for different conditions.

AssassinsMace · Mar 14, 2015

Bltizo said:
Yes I understand you're not saying that China should invade, but amassing a large invasion sized force on the border signals capability and their possible intent, so China will need to consider that the Burmese will see it as precluding possible invasion.

Basically what I'm saying is that your suggestion would make sense if there are signs that the Burmese are still not playing ball and if China was willing to degrade its relationship with Burma even more.
There is a difference in regards to posture between amassing a defensive deterrence force within one's borders (like China is doing now), and amassing a much larger force that appears capable of mounting an invasion very close to a border. Both send different messages for different conditions.

Well this is not the first time Myanmar has cross into China to go after rebels. This is probably the first they killed Chinese citizens. If someone needs to save the relationship, it's Myanmar. If they don't care about it, it's already lost. If they continue to bomb into China, they're the aggressor.

Blitzo · Mar 14, 2015

AssassinsMace said:
Well this is not the first time Myanmar has cross into China to go after rebels. This is probably the first they killed Chinese citizens. If someone needs to save the relationship, it's Myanmar. If they don't care about it, it's already lost. If they continue to bomb into China, they're the aggressor.

Well at the current situation with what we know, I would say that China's response has been proportional. Optimally the Burmese planes should never have entered Chinese airspace for that long in the first place, but what's done is done.

China obviously reserves the right to escalate, either like you suggested by amassing troops near the border, or more severely like how I suggest by conducting a limited air and missile campaign against select Burmese military targets, but those actions should only be taken if Burma is still unrepentent and continues to either allow shells to enter chinese territory, or if they continue to try and bomb chinese territory by flying planes past.

PanAsian · Mar 14, 2015

t2contra said:
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Normal response. No cigars.

This is appropriate, so is launching its own investigation with a public report and helping the victims demand compensation from the Myanmar government.

siegecrossbow · Mar 14, 2015

Dolcevita said:
Source please. what crash are you referring to?

While the crash did occur, the picture linked is that of a South Korean F-5 that crashed a while back.

Brumby · Mar 14, 2015

Bltizo said:
I agree with setting up a no fly zone inside chinese airspace, but enforcing one in Burmese airspace is a whole other game, and would more or less set the road down for near complete degradation of Sino-Burmese relations.

Strategic military decisions like this need to be made in accordance with geopolitical intent, and this kind of military operation which cannot be "taken back" should only be conducted if China is willing to completely scrap its working relationship with Burma for the short term.

Regardless of the geopolitics, China should act as the adult in this situation. The first thing is to establish the facts because there seems to be rather conflicting news as to where exactly the bombing and related deaths occurred. It ranges from 100 km inside to very near the border like within 1km. The facts changes the narrative completely. A dumb bomb falling within 1 km of a border is well within error of location and basically the nature of a dumb bomb.

At a minimum, China should at least release some official statement regarding the facts of the case. This would stop a lot of war mongering.

Sino-Myanmar Border Conflicts

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

PanAsian

Major

siegecrossbow

General

Brumby

Major