Sino-Myanmar Border Conflicts

The likeliest explanation of what happened is Myanmar planes operating within their airspace but their dumb ordnance falling across the border by accident. This situation makes the shootdown of the plane before it releases any border-crossing ordnance unjustified, it would also not be completely helpful after border-crossing ordnance is released as the ordnance will still land and do damage even if the offending plane is shot down.

So if China has an Iron Dome type system, or is working on one, this scenario would be a good real life test environment for it, of course this scenario is also proof that China has a need for such a system in MOOTW. As far as I know China does not have an Iron Dome equivalent, the closest thing to it in PLA service is the LD-2000 but I think that is meant to defend against cruise missiles, much larger and slower targets than bombs, ballistic rockets, or artillery shells. Another system that gets close to Iron Dome is the naval FL-3000 but that is also meant to defend against larger and slower anti-ship missiles, and I don't think the PLA operates land based equivalents right?

Even if the PLA did, and these systems are effective against bombs, ballistic rockets, and artillery shells, since these are point defense systems while accidental border-crossing ordnance is not aiming at anything on the Chinese side in particular China will have to deploy a high number of systems to cover all areas with possible civilian presence. Not sure if this is sustainable.

Any thoughts?

Josh Luo said:

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Any info on from what unit they are ??

PanAsian said:

The likeliest explanation of what happened is Myanmar planes operating within their airspace but their dumb ordnance falling across the border by accident. This situation makes the shootdown of the plane before it releases any border-crossing ordnance unjustified, it would also not be completely helpful after border-crossing ordnance is released as the ordnance will still land and do damage even if the offending plane is shot down.

So if China has an Iron Dome type system, or is working on one, this scenario would be a good real life test environment for it, of course this scenario is also proof that China has a need for such a system in MOOTW. As far as I know China does not have an Iron Dome equivalent, the closest thing to it in PLA service is the LD-2000 but I think that is meant to defend against cruise missiles, much larger and slower targets than bombs, ballistic rockets, or artillery shells. Another system that gets close to Iron Dome is the naval FL-3000 but that is also meant to defend against larger and slower anti-ship missiles, and I don't think the PLA operates land based equivalents right?

Even if the PLA did, and these systems are effective against bombs, ballistic rockets, and artillery shells, since these are point defense systems while accidental border-crossing ordnance is not aiming at anything on the Chinese side in particular China will have to deploy a high number of systems to cover all areas with possible civilian presence. Not sure if this is sustainable.

Any thoughts?

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I thought the PLA has the HQ-9 to deal with such threat?

Equation said:

I thought the PLA has the HQ-9 to deal with such threat?

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HQ-9 is a long distance (125km range) SAM, similar to PAC-2 or S-300PMU. It is designed to take out SRBMs, cruise missiles, and bomber aircrafts (at long distance). It is an ideal weapon to deny enemy aircraft from flying into spaces like the Taiwan Straight, but not for point defense. I think the HQ-9 might have a minimum range of like 3km, so the LD-2000 would be a much better point defense weapon. Unfortunately the PLA does not have LD-2000 in large numbers. Overall the PLA might need something like the Pantsir-S1 in the future against similar situations.

They need something akin to the FK-1000, Sky Dragon 12, or FB-10.

Ultra said:

Massing troops to the border is a very very silly move. The last time China amass the troops to the southern border was against Vietnam - and they created a rift that has never been lifted til this day. The same can be said about Russian against Chinese during 60s border dispute where over 1 million soldiers was amass over the border. This type of move only create nationalism - something that the military junta of Myanmar wants because it will further centralize his power.

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The difference is another country bombed and killed Chinese citizens on Chinese territory. The last time China built up troops and equipment on the Vietnamese border was the recent anti-Chinese riots that resulted in deaths and foreign property being destroyed. There was a build-up because of a non-military action. What was "supposedly" an emotional reaction by civilians immediately stopped as a result. I'd say killing Chinese citizens in China is even more a legitimate excuse for China to do what is necessary. No developed country would allow this if it happened to them.

SinoSoldier said:

They need something akin to the FK-1000, Sky Dragon 12, or FB-10.

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These are all export models, are any equivalents in Chinese service?

thunderchief said:

In this case, trouble in Myanmar started days ago. PLAAF should have anticipated potential incidents, and quietly move some of its assets from other sectors . And when the trouble is over just move them back to their original bases . Now they are doing just that but it is so too late for people killed. And more importantly, it shows potential opponents (real opponents, not Myanmar ) that PLAAF structure is rigid and slow to adapt. That may embolden them to attempt things they would not do if they feared from PLAAF swift response .

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Yes, hopefully a lesson the PLAAF will absorb and incorporate for future operations and doctrine. At this point, with a second errant bombing from Myanmar, whether it's really a rebel plane or a military plane, I don't think it's unreasonable for China to request Myanmar to observe a no-fly zone of X distance from the border. Any fighter violating that whether it be rebel or Myanmar military will induce a scramble and escort from the PLAAF.

Bltizo said:

I do think the PLAAF can invest in large long endurance blimps in future with radar sets. Maintaining a high altitude with a large look down AESA, they could provide the kind of long endurance large area coverage the PLA needs... but this is all in the future.

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Always been a proponent of next-gen blimps. They can still serve a very useful purpose such as low altitude (relative to satellites) 24x7 coverage over an area with minimal threat to personnel. I had in the past thrown out the idea that PLAAF should be field testing surveillance blimps over the international SLOCs near Somalia where piracy is rampant.

Ultra said:

You don't need to have aircrafts patrol the airspace all the time to know hostile or unknown aircrafts are coming. If you have radar networks set up properly, you can have full coverage of what's coming at you at ALL TIME.

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The problem from this incident isn't an issue of early warning on hostile/unknown aircraft. Infact, it wasn't that long ago when a Myanmar plane accidentally dropped ordanance over the border, resulting luckily in no casualties. So China knows there are fighter aircraft activity in that area. Problem is, while the Myanmar military is engaging the rebels, this is strictly their fight and over their territory. Not much to say so long as its on their side. When something like an errant bombing strike happens, systems like OTH won't prevent it. Now that two errant strikes have occurred, the next course of action in my opinion would to be establish and enforce a no-fly zone X distance from the border.

Comparing with Australia isn't even the same as it's an "island nation" and has the easiest scenario to decipher hostile/unknown. US also has it easier as it only shares borders with Canada and Mexico. With Canada, they even have joint early warning (NORAD). But similar to what the US intends to do with OTH in Puerto Rico, maybe China should expand by putting OTH out in the west to increase visibility as well as perhaps on Subi to extend visibility into the Southeast.

Finally some hope for a ceasefire deal



Myanmar gov't, Kachin ethnic armed group meet on ceasefire deal

ANGON, March 15 (Xinhua) -- Myanmar government's Peace-Making Work Committee (PMWC) and the Kachin Independence Organization ( KIO) met in Nay Pyi Taw on Sunday for the first time to discuss on a nationwide ceasefire, according to the Myanmar Peace Center.

　　The PMWC delegation was led by its chairman and Vice President Sai Mauk Kham, while the KIO was headed by its general secretary La Kya and its army deputy chief General Guan Maw.

　　The Myanmar government called for a prompt nationwide ceasefire so as to hold political dialogue, while the KIO side wanted to put forward a proposal to both President U Thein Sein and Commander-in- Chief of the Defense Services Min Aung Hlaing.

　　According to U Hla Maung Shwe, an official of the Myanmar Peace Center, KIO and military officials will meet in the capital on Monday to continue their discussions.

　　The PMWC and ethnic armed groups' Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) are expected to hold their 7th round of peace talks on Tuesday to finalize a draft nationwide ceasefire accord.

　　The peace talks, originally set for mid-January, were delayed by fresh clashes between the government forces and the Kachin Independence Army.

　　Meanwhile, on the occasion of the Feb. 12 Myanmar Union Day, the Myanmar government and four ethnic armed groups out of 13 and 55 political parties out of 61 signed a six-point commitment to peace and national reconciliation in Nay Pyi Taw.

　　However, the KIO, along with Ta'ang National Liberation Army ( TNLA) and Karenni National Progress Party (KNPP), did not sign the deal.

　　The signatories pledged to finalize a nationwide ceasefire agreement as soon as possible and draw up framework for a political dialogue to be held ahead of the 2015 general election.

　　The last round of ceasefire talks approved the fourth draft of a ceasefire agreement in September last year.

Though this is merely with the Christian Kachin, who are western backed anyway.

This could also mean that the Myanmar goverment is trying to get peace agreements with all the rebel factions allied with the Kokang, so that they could isolate and destroy them.

So, this development could go either way.