Should China respect sanctions on Iran?

ravenshield936

Banned Idiot
I think a nuclear Iran might actually be a good thing.

For far too long Israel has been the only nuclear power in the region. Coupled with their American supplied conventional superiority and a perverse sense within successive Israeli governments that Israel is above international law, and we have one of the most aggressive, violent and vindictive regimes anywhere in the world.

Even America seems powerless to exert much influence to curb their excesses and all the other major powers have too much vested interest to be bold enough to do what is right and bring Israel to heel. So that leaves Iran. The pariah, the outcast the only country willing to stand up to Israel. If they also gain the means to do so, then the two may balance each other out and establish a forced peace in the region.

All this drummed up accusations that Iran plans to wipe Israel off the map is nothing but a deceitful smokescreen designed to try and deflect and confuse the real reason Iran seeks the bomb - deterrence and nuclear parity against Israel.

Obviously China cannot come out and support Iran's nuclear ambitions, and it would be highly costly for China in the short run because as soon as Iran formally goes nuclear, China will be forced to cut ties and impose sanctions and that will greatly damage Chinese interests. But it could present China with an enormously beneficial opportunity in the medium and long run if Iran did go nuclear.

As soon as Iran goes nuclear, the western powers will sanction it and isolate it. But they will not dare attack it. That leaves China and Russia as the only remaining neutral powers. China is far more heavily invested in Iran then Russia, and would be the natural first choice as mediator.

China could negotiate for both Iran and Israel to disarm their nuclear weapons in exchange for lifting of sanctions and normalization of ties between Iran and America. Once this happens, Chinese companies would get first pick to help develop Iran. China may also get some arms sales to re-equip the Iranian military and could even set up a naval base in Iran in the long run.

Thats the best case scenario and a lot of things may go differently. Chinese leaders certainly have the patients and vision to play such a long term game, the only uncertainty would be if they had the confidence to seize the initiative if and when the opportunity presents itself.

the iranians are smart people. i've known 2, and they share: pride(a bit of cockiness), and knowledge. over there, they consider science over commerce(me too). commerce is only for people who sucked, as i've quoted my ex-coworker to have said. quite offending, but it's true, although also shows their arrogance in some sense

anyways, they're smart people. what they've said and whether they're nuclear power doesnt matter as long as they're responsible.
i quite doubt both countries will attempt to start a war out of nowhere and go all out to use nukes to kill each other. they both know very well what the consequences are.

it's very sure that iranians want to be the pillar of middle east
as for long-term, it's more of the west's worries. basically more of a regional power that will halt their influence in the regioon, and i have less concerns of the iranians spreading nuclear warheads around. doing so is simply asking for the fate of iraq, and given what i've written up there, i doubt the iranians will do something of that kind.

as for a regional arms race and incentives for other nations to acquire nukes, it's possible, depending on their progress and assistance. and again, for those nations to seeks the same, they may not have as much luck as the iranians (with technology, or national power n ability to continue its own growth of the programme, not to mention delivery vehicles, though which could be supplied )
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
I think a nuclear Iran might actually be a good thing.........................

Thats replacing a difficult situation with a worse one. Its definitely going to set up nuclear proliferation in the region . The Arab states aren't going to accept forced peace dictated to them by two of their most hated enemies. For the Arabs the current situation would be more preferable.
As Mr T suggested in a earlier post, in due course a bomb could easily find its way into China, and be set off in any major city.

Besides that, you are suggesting a policy which will set things up sweetly for China, something that the anti West posters accuse us of doing for ourselves. In a world of increasing competition for resources and trade? are other major countries other than the West going to stand idly buy and let that happen?
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
The Arab states are not going to need to seek nuclear weapons themselves if someone can sell the idea of disarming Iranian bombs in exchange for Israel also giving up its weapons. That is something infinitely better then the current situation don't you think?

Hell, it would be a very easy sell to the Iranians - all they have to do is make the offer and give up the handful of bombs they might have and at a stroke, the crippling sanctions are lifted, trade and access to markets and resources would be far improved since even now; relations with west could be normalized; they would have neutralized Israel's vast nuclear arsenal (one the Iranians would struggle to ever truly match anyways, and also the only way to making "wiping Israel off the map" even a remotely feasible possibility if thats what Iran really wants); propelled themselves into a leadership role in the region; and the Iranian leaders can share the Noble Peace Prize with the leaders of China and Israel.

As soon as the Iranians make the offer, the pressure will be entirely on Israel. They can cave and disarm, or they can be the pariah state in the region and risk extermination as America is forced to cut off all military support. They will cave, and that is why they are so desperate that Iran never have the bomb to force them into such an impossible position.

The threat of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists as a result of state action is remote in the extreme unless one goes and tries to destroy the state that possesses such weapons.

Its extremely fortunate that Iraq did not really have any WMD, or else terrorists would likely have gotten their hands on them after the chaos of the American led invasion. Short of the overthrow of a state, there is very little danger any terrorist organization could ever develop the capabilities to seize nuclear weapons by force or any other means. If such a thing was even possible, don't you think the CIA would have done it already to ride North Korea of its bombs?

Any nuclear weapon could be ultimately tracked back to its source of origin. For a national government to simply hand such a device over to a friendly terrorist organization for them to set it off in another country would invite the same retaliation as if you sent that bomb over using a ballistic missile.

As for your accusations, well read carefully what I said, I never advocated that China should adopt a policy to facilitate or encourage Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, I specifically stated that China cannot adopt any such policy and that it would greatly harm Chinese interests in the short run for Iran to go nuclear. My point was merely stating my belief that in the even Iran does go nuclear, it would present China a prime opportunity to further its own interests by stepping forward and taking a more responsible and assertive role and solve the nuclear proliferation problem everyone in the west willingly turns a blind eye to.

If China has set itself this goal, then it might take steps to increase the chances of Iran getting a nuclear weapon without any evidence to point to Chinese involvement all the while pontificating in public about the need to prevent nuclear proliferation and to find a peaceful resolution.

Sneaky, underhanded, dangerous and exactly the kind of operation western intelligence agencies would pride themselves on if only they managed to pull off such a grand scheme.

Western intelligence agencies wouldn't like it for sure, but after the royal screw up that was Iraq, their ability to intervene has been severely damaged as most people trust their word as far as they can throw a challenger tank.

You invented the rules to this game. Shouldn't blame the Chinese for playing.
 
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Mr T

Senior Member
The Arab states are not going to need to seek nuclear weapons themselves if someone can sell the idea of disarming Iranian bombs in exchange for Israel also giving up its weapons. That is something infinitely better then the current situation don't you think?

Who says Iran cares about whether Israel has the bomb or not? Didn't you think that maybe Iran wants the bomb because it wants the bomb for its own sake? I think that even if Israel admitted it had nuclear weapons and then verifiable got rid of them, Iran would say Israel was lying and it was all a conspiracy to make it admit to a programme it doesn't have so it can be the target of an invasion. Or it would just say that the US still has them and insist the US disarm first.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Who says Iran cares about whether Israel has the bomb or not? Didn't you think that maybe Iran wants the bomb because it wants the bomb for its own sake? I think that even if Israel admitted it had nuclear weapons and then verifiable got rid of them, Iran would say Israel was lying and it was all a conspiracy to make it admit to a programme it doesn't have so it can be the target of an invasion. Or it would just say that the US still has them and insist the US disarm first.

No one, and most certainly, no country ever wants anything for its own sake. They want something as a means to an end.

Iran wants the bomb for the security and influence that grants them. However, for them to keep the bomb would be to impose a very high cost on themselves for very little benefit. They would suffer crippling sanctions and isolation for years, and Iraq is a good example of where that roads lead if they allow themselves to be so isolated and weakened.

If a suitable compromise could be established where Iran can get much of what it wanted the bomb for for giving them up, they could be persuaded to do so with the right guarantees.

Any Iranian fears of an Israeli-American/western conspiracy to hide Israeli weapons could easily be dispelled by assembling an international verification team with members from Iran and other middle east interested states. In return, America and Israel will be allowed their own observers on the ground to verify Iranian disarmament. If that is too much for either country to accept, then a Chinese-Russian team could do all the field work and present their findings to an international board.

Once Iran goes nuclear, it has very little to loose and a great deal to gain by making an offer to disarm. It is Israel who will suffer the most loss as they would be forced to give up their dirty massive secret stockpile of nuclear weapons.
 

jantxv

New Member
Once Iran goes nuclear, it has very little to loose and a great deal to gain by making an offer to disarm. It is Israel who will suffer the most loss as they would be forced to give up their dirty massive secret stockpile of nuclear weapons.

The game of Nuclear Blackmail is as productive as Russian Roulette, only the naive young and those who believe in the afterlife contemplate playing them.

If all nations are equal and have the right to possess nuclear weapons, as those that argue Israel's possession as vindication for Iranian weapon aspirations, then let's arm every nation with them.

Is Venezuela nervous about an American invasion? Then allow Venezuela nukes. Oh, the nations that boarder the South China Sea think other nations are infringing on their claims, let them nuke up too. Let's allow Vietnam 1,000 nuclear warheads. The Philippines, 1,000 nuclear tipped ICBMs. Who else would like some?

Nepal should have their 1,000 nukes, nations that don't like it could pay Nepal tribute, "ahem" I mean security compensation, for Nepal to give up some of their weapons, and hey, if the Nepalese think they need to extort, "ahem, excuse me", I mean increase cash flow they could always cook up some more nukes so they can later get paid to get rid of.

Yeah, sounds like a marvelous plan, lets allow Iranian nukes. Nukes for everyone!!
 
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yehe

Junior Member
Nuclear proliferation is a bad ide, especially for large countries like Russia US and China, but a bad ide for everyone in general on this planet, Iran should NOT be allowed nukes, neither should Nkorea, and Israel for that matter.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
The game of Nuclear Blackmail is as productive as Russian Roulette, only the naive young and those who believe in the afterlife contemplate playing them.

Only the naive young see the world in such absolutes. And you really are naive if you think arbitrarily labeling something as 'blackmail' is going to score you any points whatsoever.

How is it blackmail if all Iran ask for in exchange for full disarmament is that Israel, who never should have had any nuclear weapons to start with, did the same?

I have little doubt that if it was the other way round with Israel making the offer, you would be jumping up and down exalting the virtue of the gesture and the glorious example it sets for the rest of the world. :rolleyes:

If all nations are equal and have the right to possess nuclear weapons, as those that argue Israel's possession as vindication for Iranian weapon aspirations, then let's arm every nation with them.

Is Venezuela nervous about an American invasion? Then allow Venezuela nukes. Oh, the nations that boarder the South China Sea think other nations are infringing on their claims, let them nuke up too. Let's allow Vietnam 1,000 nuclear warheads. The Philippines, 1,000 nuclear tipped ICBMs. Who else would like some?

Nepal should have their 1,000 nukes, nations that don't like it could pay Nepal tribute, "ahem" I mean security compensation, for Nepal to give up some of their weapons, and hey, if the Nepalese think they need to extort, "ahem, excuse me", I mean increase cash flow they could always cook up some more nukes so they can later get paid to get rid of.

Yeah, sounds like a marvelous plan, lets allow Iranian nukes. Nukes for everyone!!

The rest of your post is just one long melodramatic rant that is as irrelevant as it is illogical.

North Korea is about as irresponsible, dangerous and impoverished a regime as you can get, but have they been resorting to nuclear blackmail?

Why would Iran stoop lower?
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
North Korea is about as irresponsible, dangerous and impoverished a regime as you can get, but have they been resorting to nuclear blackmail?

Why would Iran stoop lower?

IMO Yes. By testing their basllistic missiles, they are playing on the fears of Japan USA etc that they will shortly become a fully fledged nuclear power, with a credible means of delivery to ring economic/ banking transaction concessions from them. Fortunately their nuclear and missile testing hasnt gone well for them.According to some analysts the explovsive force of their nucleur testing to date, is still a fair way off to whats is needed to be regarded as a nuclear explosion.. Meanwhile Iran is emulating NK in its stalling tactics.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
IMO Yes. By testing their basllistic missiles, they are playing on the fears of Japan USA etc that they will shortly become a fully fledged nuclear power, with a credible means of delivery to ring economic/ banking transaction concessions from them. Fortunately their nuclear and missile testing hasnt gone well for them.According to some analysts the explovsive force of their nucleur testing to date, is still a fair way off to whats is needed to be regarded as a nuclear explosion.. Meanwhile Iran is emulating NK in its stalling tactics.

I'm not sure I get what you are trying to say here.

The segment you quoted was my reply to jantxv's suggestion that Iran would wish to engage in nuclear blackmail to get funds.

Why would they want to when they have vast amounts of resources in the form of oil and gas that they can sell to get far more then any 'ransom' from nuclear blackmail?

I pointed to the fact that NK, a far more impoverished and irresponsible regime, has not stooped so low as to try and bargain away nuclear bombs for money. Why? Because they wanted the weapons for security not money. For countries like NK and Iran, a nuclear bomb is an insurance policy against attack from the US and allies.
 
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