ravenshield936
Banned Idiot
I think a nuclear Iran might actually be a good thing.
For far too long Israel has been the only nuclear power in the region. Coupled with their American supplied conventional superiority and a perverse sense within successive Israeli governments that Israel is above international law, and we have one of the most aggressive, violent and vindictive regimes anywhere in the world.
Even America seems powerless to exert much influence to curb their excesses and all the other major powers have too much vested interest to be bold enough to do what is right and bring Israel to heel. So that leaves Iran. The pariah, the outcast the only country willing to stand up to Israel. If they also gain the means to do so, then the two may balance each other out and establish a forced peace in the region.
All this drummed up accusations that Iran plans to wipe Israel off the map is nothing but a deceitful smokescreen designed to try and deflect and confuse the real reason Iran seeks the bomb - deterrence and nuclear parity against Israel.
Obviously China cannot come out and support Iran's nuclear ambitions, and it would be highly costly for China in the short run because as soon as Iran formally goes nuclear, China will be forced to cut ties and impose sanctions and that will greatly damage Chinese interests. But it could present China with an enormously beneficial opportunity in the medium and long run if Iran did go nuclear.
As soon as Iran goes nuclear, the western powers will sanction it and isolate it. But they will not dare attack it. That leaves China and Russia as the only remaining neutral powers. China is far more heavily invested in Iran then Russia, and would be the natural first choice as mediator.
China could negotiate for both Iran and Israel to disarm their nuclear weapons in exchange for lifting of sanctions and normalization of ties between Iran and America. Once this happens, Chinese companies would get first pick to help develop Iran. China may also get some arms sales to re-equip the Iranian military and could even set up a naval base in Iran in the long run.
Thats the best case scenario and a lot of things may go differently. Chinese leaders certainly have the patients and vision to play such a long term game, the only uncertainty would be if they had the confidence to seize the initiative if and when the opportunity presents itself.
the iranians are smart people. i've known 2, and they share: pride(a bit of cockiness), and knowledge. over there, they consider science over commerce(me too). commerce is only for people who sucked, as i've quoted my ex-coworker to have said. quite offending, but it's true, although also shows their arrogance in some sense
anyways, they're smart people. what they've said and whether they're nuclear power doesnt matter as long as they're responsible.
i quite doubt both countries will attempt to start a war out of nowhere and go all out to use nukes to kill each other. they both know very well what the consequences are.
it's very sure that iranians want to be the pillar of middle east
as for long-term, it's more of the west's worries. basically more of a regional power that will halt their influence in the regioon, and i have less concerns of the iranians spreading nuclear warheads around. doing so is simply asking for the fate of iraq, and given what i've written up there, i doubt the iranians will do something of that kind.
as for a regional arms race and incentives for other nations to acquire nukes, it's possible, depending on their progress and assistance. and again, for those nations to seeks the same, they may not have as much luck as the iranians (with technology, or national power n ability to continue its own growth of the programme, not to mention delivery vehicles, though which could be supplied )