Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

kwaigonegin said:

I certainly see your point of view however if not J31 what else is there in the works to power PLAN's future carrier force? surely J15 cannot be the only bird for the entire 2020s and most of 2030s especially with 3 or 4 carriers coming online in that time frame!

PLAN's counterparts would be F35B/Cs. I doubt they would be pitching Flankers again these birds.

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There was talk about Chengdu developing a whole new stealth bird for the tender though I don't know how reliable that rumor is. I've also heard something about Shenyang making a drastically different and significantly larger J-31 like a Super Hornet to the Hornet requiring maybe WS-10X class engines. Naval J-20 is another possibility.

I don't know what will happen but in my opinion, there is almost certainly something wrong with J-31 that makes the Chinese military hesitate so badly.

manqiangrexue said:

There was talk about Chengdu developing a whole new stealth bird for the tender though I don't know how reliable that rumor is. I've also heard something about Shenyang making a drastically different and significantly larger J-31 like a Super Hornet to the Hornet requiring maybe WS-10X class engines. Naval J-20 is another possibility.

I don't know what will happen but in my opinion, there is almost certainly something wrong with J-31 that makes the Chinese military hesitate so badly.

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Maybe they hesitate because of budget. They may have decided they don’t need a mid sized workforce stealth fighter.

latenlazy said:

Maybe they hesitate because of budget. They may have decided they don’t need a mid sized workforce stealth fighter.

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Maybe. But unless it's because the financial situation changed in these few years, that makes Shenyang woefully uninformed or desperate, by deliberately making something that the PLAAF said they don't want/did not budget for hoping to somehow change their minds. This takes annoying salesman to a whole new level.

If the PLAAF always wanted just J-20 supplemented with high end 4th gen fighters, Shenyang should have been told to focus all their efforts on improving the Flanker instead. Now they have a J-31 that nobody wants to buy and a J-11D that's not ready for prime time... If that were the case, then purchasing Su-35 could have been a slap in Shenyang's face among its other uses.

manqiangrexue said:

Maybe. But unless it's because the financial situation changed in these few years, that makes Shenyang woefully uninformed or desperate, by deliberately making something that the PLAAF said they don't want/did not budget for hoping to somehow change their minds. This takes annoying salesman to a whole new level.

If the PLAAF always wanted just J-20 supplemented with high end 4th gen fighters, Shenyang should have been told to focus all their efforts on improving the Flanker instead. Now they have a J-31 that nobody wants to buy and a J-11D that's not ready for prime time... If that were the case, then purchasing Su-35 could have been a slap in Shenyang's face among its other uses.

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Who said the PLAAF intends to continue supplementing with high end 4th gen fighters? What if the PLAAF intends to stop purchasing Flankers in 5 years and gradually phase them out with new J-20s, while the J-20 becomes the mainstay as a 6th generation fighter gets introduced? If you’re SAC this will look like a very bad situation if you want to stay in the fighter business. If your business long term looks thin investing in the present may not be a bad idea. After all, would SAC have been better positioned for the naval tender if they hadn’t spent time developing the J-31? If it’s looking like they’re going to be locked out in future fighter procurement because the J-20 becomes a mainstay anyways why not have a cheaper alternative at hand in case the PLAAF changes its mind? At the very least the money spent on the J-31 is also money spent on research, and on keeping your talent busy, employed, and innovating. SAC gets a lot of flack, often deservedly, but that doesn’t mean their decision to continue spending money on the J-3 is a waste or a dumb idea, or that that money is being spent fruitlessly.

latenlazy said:

Who said the PLAAF intends to continue supplementing with high end 4th gen fighters? What if the PLAAF intends to stop purchasing Flankers in 5 years and gradually phase them out with new J-20s,

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For PLAAF the new air supremacy/attack combo is J20+J16. For PLAN the new anti-ship/carrier combo is J16+J15.

For a project like FC31 it is not just one company spending money. There must be hundreds of suppliers including research institutions in the project. So it is not as easy as just Shenyang investing in it. It is a coordinated effort of the entire industry. PLAN does not care wasting money now, if it can't deliver in a real war situation it is a waste of money of enormous scale, not to mention it will be a blow to China's confidence.. So everything we discuss here is dependent on how good FC31 truly is, not wasting money.

kurutoga said:

For PLAAF the new air supremacy/attack combo is J20+J16. For PLAN the new anti-ship/carrier combo is J16+J15.

For a project like FC31 it is not just one company spending money. There must be hundreds of suppliers including research institutions in the project. So it is not as easy as just Shenyang investing in it. It is a coordinated effort of the entire industry. PLAN does not care wasting money now, if it can't deliver in a real war situation it is a waste of money of enormous scale. So everything we discuss here is dependent on how good FC31 truly is, not wasting money.

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The implications of spending money on hundreds of suppliers is essentially that you’re spending money to support and develop your industrial base. If this money were seen as a total waste the project would have been kaiboshed long ago. Just as we can read something into the J-31 not being adopted for all these years, we can read something in the J-31 still receiving funding after all these years.

kurutoga said:

For PLAN the new anti-ship/carrier combo is J16+J15.

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We haven't seen J-16s in PLANAF service as of yet. It's quite possible they're going to stick to the J-15 family including the two-seater variant for strike missions and the J-16 will remain exclusively with the PLAAF.

latenlazy said:

The implications of spending money on hundreds of suppliers is essentially that you’re spending money to support and develop your industrial base. If this money were seen as a total waste the project would have been kaiboshed long ago. Just as we can read something into the J-31 not being adopted for all these years, we can read something in the J-31 still receiving funding after all these years.

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Yes, that is my point also. We can't force PLAN to accept FC31. Even if the funding was spent to train the team, it is worth it. The navy is only responsible for winning wars (or at least be as effective as designed), for that reason the navy only wants weapons it considers effective in a war. The funding issue, how much is spent, is not a factor to choose this weapon over another, the key is how good FC31 is. If it is good and not too expensive, I am sure more customers will want it. For the same reason I think unless someone invested in a new engine, FC31 will not be effective as a carrier fighter jet. So let's focus the discussion on merit.

I'd love to see FC31 becoming J31 and get exported. But it still requires a lot of investment. FC31 needs to prove to the decision makers how effective it is.

jobjed said:

We haven't seen J-16s in PLANAF service as of yet. It's quite possible they're going to stick to the J-15 family including the two-seater variant for strike missions and the J-16 will remain exclusively with the PLAAF.

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Sorry I was mainly talking about the land based PLAN air force. I assumed they will take more J-16 to replace Su-30s and JH7As.

manqiangrexue said:

There was talk about Chengdu developing a whole new stealth bird for the tender though I don't know how reliable that rumor is. I've also heard something about Shenyang making a drastically different and significantly larger J-31 like a Super Hornet to the Hornet requiring maybe WS-10X class engines. Naval J-20 is another possibility.

I don't know what will happen but in my opinion, there is almost certainly something wrong with J-31 that makes the Chinese military hesitate so badly.

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I think this is where the misunderstanding is

Chinese military did not hesitate on J-31 the PLAAF did, and why wouldn’t they , the doctrine and strategy fits a large long range heavy 5th generation stealth fighter that is the J20

PLAAF is beyond the scope of J-31 just like J20 is beyond the scope of PLAN, does that mean PLAAF will never operate J-31 ? probably not but there is scope there for a light weight fighter after heavy regiments are equipped with J20

So on the balance of probabilities taking into account the overall strategy of PLAAF and PLAN the J-31 turns out on top for PLAN