Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

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SinoSoldier

Colonel
From left to right, there are three pictures, sea, 31, nail on a board.

It represents, naval 31 is now a sure thing (Chinese slang). It has to be FC-31 because the person posted the message is a military fan. This is not from an insider. I'd say the reliability of this is pretty low.

That does not mean FC-31 can't be the carrier jet. If it does become the naval jet that would be fantastic. Personally I am worried without a full scale investment the engine would be a weak spot. And unlike airforce jets, naval jets without a good engine is not usable.

Engine troubles exists regardless of what platform the PLANAF chooses. FC-31 will need the WS-19, the J-20 will need the WS-15, and a future clean-sheet medium-sized fighter will still need the WS-19.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Do we have evidence for this?
Evidence is that there is no public funding for it and I highly doubt it's because SAC refused to allow them to inspect the jet for prospective investment. I'm assuming it's because they took a look at SAC's invite and weren't impressed. Latenlazy brings up the point that they may not have been interested enough to even take a look. Either way, SAC's not getting funded by the government for J-31, not publicly, at least.
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
Evidence is that there is no public funding for it and I highly doubt it's because SAC refused to allow them to inspect the jet for prospective investment. I'm assuming it's because they took a look at SAC's invite and weren't impressed. Latenlazy brings up the point that they may not have been interested enough to even take a look. Either way, SAC's not getting funded by the government for J-31, not publicly, at least.

That's a somewhat misleading statement. So far we don't know if there has been public funding for it, nor do we know that SAC has refused any assessment of the jet or that the assessors weren't impressed with the FC-31. Even if there is no funding for the program at this point, it does not preclude funding in the future, since none of us know when the assessment phase finishes.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
A counter argument could be if you are so sure J31 has been outright rejected by PLAN, then what the heck is SAC still fooling around with it? There is no indication of selling to foreign customers. Either way it would've been scrapped or moved to some aviation musuem long time ago.
I do not believe J31's chapter has ended quite just yet as a couple of you are so sure it has.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Evidence is that there is no public funding for it and I highly doubt it's because SAC refused to allow them to inspect the jet for prospective investment. I'm assuming it's because they took a look at SAC's invite and weren't impressed. Latenlazy brings up the point that they may not have been interested enough to even take a look. Either way, SAC's not getting funded by the government for J-31, not publicly, at least.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
That's a somewhat misleading statement. So far we don't know if there has been public funding for it, nor do we know that SAC has refused any assessment of the jet or that the assessors weren't impressed with the FC-31. Even if there is no funding for the program at this point, it does not preclude funding in the future, since none of us know when the assessment phase finishes.
There is no public funding for it, meaning there has been no public announcement of funding for it. If they are funding it secretly, that's something we have no evidence for and no reason to believe because why would they need to hold that a secret? Why would SAC refuse assessment of their fighter? Are they trying to screw themselves out of investment funds and development opportunity? Makes no sense. It is outside of the realm of reasonable probability that SAC would refuse that. It's 99% likely that SAC invited everyone they could to see what they've got and potentially invest. Then, if there's no investment, at least none publicly, then why? I think the most logical reason is because it wasn't impressive. Could we think of other possibilities? Sure we could; but I think this here is the biggest probability.

Sure, it could be funded in the future; I never said that's not possible. Maybe they assessed it, then said there were major issues, so SAC made V2 and showed them an improved version and they said there were still major concerns so SAC would pass their test with V3 when it's ready. Might happen; I can't tell the future. But taking this long, to me, isn't a good sign.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
I understand that, and in almost every post, I acknowledged the possibility of secret funding for J-31. But there is no public funding for it in the sense that neither PLAAF nor PLAN has publicly taken the project under their funding like they would if they were proud of it. And I don't see any reason for them to keep funding secret. So I'm leaning heavily towards no funding.
 
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SinoSoldier

Colonel
There is no public funding for it, meaning there has been no public announcement of funding for it. If they are funding it secretly, that's something we have no evidence for and no reason to believe because why would they need to hold that a secret? Why would SAC refuse assessment of their fighter? Are they trying to screw themselves out of investment funds and development opportunity? Makes no sense. It is outside of the realm of reasonable probability that SAC would refuse that. It's 99% likely that SAC invited everyone they could to see what they've got and potentially invest. Then, if there's no investment, at least none publicly, then why? I think the most logical reason is because it wasn't impressive. Could we think of other possibilities? Sure we could; but I think this here is the biggest probability.

Sure, it could be funded in the future; I never said that's not possible. Maybe they assessed it, then said there were major issues, so SAC made V2 and showed them an improved version and they said there were still major concerns so SAC would pass their test with V3 when it's ready. Might happen; I can't tell the future. But taking this long, to me, isn't a good sign.

In other words, we know nothing of the PLAN's assessment of the FC-31 or whether the entire process has finished or not. Therefore, with the current information (or lack of it) we have on hand, we cannot say whether the FC-31 has been rejected or given a green light for further development.
 

Deino

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Guys ... You are turning circles !!!

All arguments were already mentioned so often and so far NOTHING is confirmed. There are rumours and rumours, back and forth but barely any hard facts besides the fact that there are two demonstrators/prototypes flying.

Everything else is as we say in Germany: "Das sind ungelegte Eier" (discussing about "not yet laid eggs") or by its meaning in English "I'll cross that bridge when I come to it!".

Deino
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
There is no public funding for it, meaning there has been no public announcement of funding for it. If they are funding it secretly, that's something we have no evidence for and no reason to believe because why would they need to hold that a secret? Why would SAC refuse assessment of their fighter? Are they trying to screw themselves out of investment funds and development opportunity? Makes no sense. It is outside of the realm of reasonable probability that SAC would refuse that. It's 99% likely that SAC invited everyone they could to see what they've got and potentially invest. Then, if there's no investment, at least none publicly, then why? I think the most logical reason is because it wasn't impressive. Could we think of other possibilities? Sure we could; but I think this here is the biggest probability.

Sure, it could be funded in the future; I never said that's not possible. Maybe they assessed it, then said there were major issues, so SAC made V2 and showed them an improved version and they said there were still major concerns so SAC would pass their test with V3 when it's ready. Might happen; I can't tell the future. But taking this long, to me, isn't a good sign.

I understand that, and in almost every post, I acknowledged the possibility of secret funding for J-31. But there is no public funding for it in the sense that neither PLAAF nor PLAN has publicly taken the project under their funding like they would if they were proud of it. And I don't see any reason for them to keep funding secret. So I'm leaning heavily towards no funding.
Do you, in fact, know in any degree of line by line detail what the PLA is or isn’t funding?
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Do you, in fact, know in any degree of line by line detail what the PLA is or isn’t funding?
No, I don't. Hey, they might be funding Gundams or Death Stars, right? You don't think so? Why? Do you know line by line what they're funding? No? Then they might be funding them! We "don't know." LOL Do you have evidence that flying bears don't exist? No? Then they might exist, right? We are at the point where if you can't prove that something doesn't exist, then we're 50/50 on whether it exists, aren't we?

Facts are here:
J-20: First flight 2011, immediately bears PLAAF star, publicly funded by PLAAF, 8 prototypes built in 5 years, enters LRIP 2016.
J-31: First flight 2012; it is 2018 and there are 2 prototypes, neither with the honor of bearing PLAAF/PLAN markings. No public endorsements. No evidence or reason for secret funding either.

To me, that looks like no interest. If anybody here thinks that J-31's pattern looks promising, cool. I'm not on that boat.
 
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