Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

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manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
latenlazy said:
Who said the PLAAF intends to continue supplementing with high end 4th gen fighters? What if the PLAAF intends to stop purchasing Flankers in 5 years and gradually phase them out with new J-20s, while the J-20 becomes the mainstay as a 6th generation fighter gets introduced? If you’re SAC this will look like a very bad situation if you want to stay in the fighter business. If your business long term looks thin investing in the present may not be a bad idea. After all, would SAC have been better positioned for the naval tender if they hadn’t spent time developing the J-31? If it’s looking like they’re going to be locked out in future fighter procurement because the J-20 becomes a mainstay anyways why not have a cheaper alternative at hand in case the PLAAF changes its mind? At the very least the money spent on the J-31 is also money spent on research, and on keeping your talent busy, employed, and innovating. SAC gets a lot of flack, often deservedly, but that doesn’t mean their decision to continue spending money on the J-3 is a waste or a dumb idea, or that that money is being spent fruitlessly.
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If PLAAF was going to go J-20 low, 6th gen high, then I would recommend SAC put everything into 6th gen technologies. Sure, in that case, if they're too far, then building a 5th gen tech demonstrator to keep everyone sharp isn't a bad idea at all. But to put things into perspective, we're discussing unlikely what-if scenarios, trying to avoid the 800 pound gorilla, which is that J-31 was rejected by PLAAF because its performance was sub-par and/or that its cost is too high compared to J-20. I think although there are other possibilities, these 2 are the largest. I have nothing against this plane except that the PLAAF don't seem interested in it. It's a Chinese stealth fighter design and I wish it the best because of that.
asif iqbal said:
I think this is where the misunderstanding is

Chinese military did not hesitate on J-31 the PLAAF did, and why wouldn’t they , the doctrine and strategy fits a large long range heavy 5th generation stealth fighter that is the J20

PLAAF is beyond the scope of J-31 just like J20 is beyond the scope of PLAN, does that mean PLAAF will never operate J-31 ? probably not but there is scope there for a light weight fighter after heavy regiments are equipped with J20

So on the balance of probabilities taking into account the overall strategy of PLAAF and PLAN the J-31 turns out on top for PLAN
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Is this where the misunderstanding is? I don't know about that. If J-31 was excellent for PLAN, then the PLAN would have funded it by now. Somebody would have funded it officially by now unless nobody wants it. It's not impossible that it's already secretly funded by PLAN or PLAAF but we don't have evidence of that.
 
by78

by78

General
Klon said:
072148lo5flkvenynqiz6y.png

This post probably started it all. It's no longer there on weibo.
One cjdby
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Some state that pb (pb19980515) also said something similar in the past. In total, judge for yourself.
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I see no credibility to this at all. The photo, assuming it wasn't PSed for sensationalism, merely shows that user's Weibo photo stream, which is automatically generated by Weibo and regularly refreshed. The captioning accompanying the photos made absolutely no mention of the J-31 program. In fact, the captioning on the middle photo (number 31) says something like, "December 31st, last day of 2017, going for a stroll along the coastline with some friends... to take some photos..."
 
L

latenlazy

Brigadier
manqiangrexue said:
If PLAAF was going to go J-20 low, 6th gen high, then I would recommend SAC put everything into 6th gen technologies. Sure, in that case, if they're too far, then building a 5th gen tech demonstrator to keep everyone sharp isn't a bad idea at all. But to put things into perspective, we're discussing unlikely what-if scenarios, trying to avoid the 800 pound gorilla, which is that J-31 was rejected by PLAAF because its performance was sub-par and/or that its cost is too high compared to J-20. I think although there are other possibilities, these 2 are the largest. I have nothing against this plane except that the PLAAF don't seem interested in it. It's a Chinese stealth fighter design and I wish it the best because of that.
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How do you build your tech for 6th gen effectively? By actively working on a 5th gen design. You don’t develop a fine understanding of the technologies that will go into 6th generation fighters only with thinking and theory. Hands on work is immensely helpful, especially if you want to keep up with a competition that already benefits from that kind of experience in spades. Knowledge, skills, and capabilities aren’t conjured from thin air whenever you need. You need to build up your institutional capacity to grow and sustain them.

Your 800 pound gorilla is online gossip and speculation. We don’t really know why the PLAAF didn’t pick up the J-31. It certainly seems like the PLAAF didn’t ask for it, so why should we assume their lack of interest signifies deficient capabilities, when it could simply be that the plane didn’t fit their force planning?
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
latenlazy said:
How do you build your tech for 6th gen effectively? By actively working on a 5th gen design. You don’t develop a fine understanding of the technologies that will go into 6th generation fighters only with thinking and theory. Hands on work is immensely helpful, especially if you want to keep up with a competition that already benefits from that kind of experience in spades. Knowledge, skills, and capabilities aren’t conjured from thin air whenever you need. You need to build up your institutional capacity to grow and sustain them.

Your 800 pound gorilla is online gossip and speculation. We don’t really know why the PLAAF didn’t pick up the J-31. It certainly seems like the PLAAF didn’t ask for it, so why should we assume their lack of interest signifies deficient capabilities, when it could simply be that the plane didn’t fit their force planning?
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You can speculate that a mid-light stealth fighter didn't fit their planning because PLAAF wanted to go J-20 plus 6th gen but there's no indication that that's what happened. Using a heavy fighter with stealth skin maintenance as a low is pretty expensive. It seems to me that the most likely story is that PLAAF wanted J-20 high plus J-31 low like F-22 high F-35 low but J-31 didn't live up to expectations either on cost, performance or both. If a prototype doesn't head to production, that's usually why.

As per my last post, I already agreed that if there was no tender for a light stealth fighter, Shenyang could have still made it for experience to stay relevant in the 6th gen race. In that case, it's unlikely that China's armed forces would want it since they did not order it.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
latenlazy said:
How do you build your tech for 6th gen effectively? By actively working on a 5th gen design. You don’t develop a fine understanding of the technologies that will go into 6th generation fighters only with thinking and theory. Hands on work is immensely helpful, especially if you want to keep up with a competition that already benefits from that kind of experience in spades. Knowledge, skills, and capabilities aren’t conjured from thin air whenever you need. You need to build up your institutional capacity to grow and sustain them.

Your 800 pound gorilla is online gossip and speculation. We don’t really know why the PLAAF didn’t pick up the J-31. It certainly seems like the PLAAF didn’t ask for it, so why should we assume their lack of interest signifies deficient capabilities, when it could simply be that the plane didn’t fit their force planning?
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Even if no one backs out the J31, it doesn’t mean SAC is finished.

China could potentially open up a second J20 production line at SAC to give them work and a comprehensive technical update so they can compete with CAC on near equal footing for the next fighter bid.

It would be similar to how Lockmart is subcontracting F35 work to the lines of Beoing, but only more comprehensive.

After all, the 052D and 055 already have set the precedent for wholesale tech transfer between different Chinese yards, and it would not be that much of a stretch to apply the same to fighters.

That is to say, there is no imperative for the Chinese government to strongarm the PLAAF or PLAN to take the J31 if they don’t want it, since there are other ways they can keep SAC as a viable competitor to
CAC without needing to commit to the J31.
 
L

latenlazy

Brigadier
manqiangrexue said:
You can speculate that a mid-light stealth fighter didn't fit their planning because PLAAF wanted to go J-20 plus 6th gen but there's no indication that that's what happened. Using a heavy fighter with stealth skin maintenance as a low is pretty expensive. It seems to me that the most likely story is that PLAAF wanted J-20 high plus J-31 low like F-22 high F-35 low but J-31 didn't live up to expectations either on cost, performance or both. If a prototype doesn't head to production, that's usually why.

As per my last post, I already agreed that if there was no tender for a light stealth fighter, Shenyang could have still made it for experience to stay relevant in the 6th gen race. In that case, it's unlikely that China's armed forces would want it since they did not order it.
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There’s no indication for your “800 lb gorilla” either. To say that the J-31 didn’t get picked up because it was deficient despite the PLAAF asking for it would require evidence that the PLAAF asked for it. This is also highly speculative. We simply don’t know for certain the actual reason the J-31 received development. Plenty of prototypes don’t head to production for plenty of reasons that have nothing to do with their performance.

A fifth generation low with a fifth generation hi arrangement will fall into the *exact* same problem with expensive maintenance as a 6th gen hi and 5th gen low, except that in one scenario all that cost is compressed into the present while in another it is amortized over the lifetime of a legacy design, which might also benefit from the development of new technologies that can maintain the same capabilities at lesser costs. Anyways, I offered up the 6th hi 5th low idea as a hypothetical to demonstrate a point. This scenario doesn’t have to be true for my point to hold.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
plawolf said:
Even if no one backs out the J31, it doesn’t mean SAC is finished.

China could potentially open up a second J20 production line at SAC to give them work and a comprehensive technical update so they can compete with CAC on near equal footing for the next fighter bid.

It would be similar to how Lockmart is subcontracting F35 work to the lines of Beoing, but only more comprehensive.

After all, the 052D and 055 already have set the precedent for wholesale tech transfer between different Chinese yards, and it would not be that much of a stretch to apply the same to fighters.

That is to say, there is no imperative for the Chinese government to strongarm the PLAAF or PLAN to take the J31 if they don’t want it, since there are other ways they can keep SAC as a viable competitor to
CAC without needing to commit to the J31.
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I’m not saying without a 5th gen design SAC is finished. The challenge of not having a 5th generation design to build experience with doesn’t have to be existential for the decision to do self development to weigh beneficially. Nor did I mention anything about the PLAAF or PLAN being strongarmed into purchasing the J-31. It doesn’t need to go into production for development of a prototype to yield dividends for the firm’s future capabilities.
 
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manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
latenlazy said:
There’s no indication for your “800 lb gorilla” either. To say that the J-31 didn’t get picked up because it was deficient despite the PLAAF asking for it would require evidence that the PLAAF asked for it. This is also highly speculative. We simply don’t know for certain the actual reason the J-31 received development. Plenty of prototypes don’t head to production for plenty of reasons that have nothing to do with their performance.

A fifth generation low with a fifth generation hi arrangement will fall into the *exact* same problem with expensive maintenance as a 6th gen hi and 5th gen low, except that in one scenario all that cost is compressed into the present while in another it is amortized over the lifetime of a legacy design, which might also benefit from the development of new technologies that can maintain the same capabilities at lesser costs. Anyways, I offered up the 6th hi 5th low idea as a hypothetical to demonstrate a point. This scenario doesn’t have to be true for my point to hold.
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Ok, your point is that there are possibilities other than deficient performance or high cost, right? I accept those possibilities, but I don't think they are more probable than my 800 pound gorilla because:

1. Is it usual for a defense company to develop an extremely complex and expensive system that there was no tender for? Not to my knowledge, not usual.
2. Is it normal for the PLAN to hesitate for so long and refuse public funding/support for a carrier fighter if it is very good and the PLAN clearly has no better choices in front of it? I don't think so.

In my opinion, the likelihood of these are much slimmer than the simple explanation that the air force/navy rejected a system because it was too expensive or not capable enough.
But even if SAC built a great, cheap light weight stealth fighter but the PLAAF/PLAN don't want it because it doesn't fit their planning, then J-31 will still not be produced, which supports my thought that there is absolutely nothing to indicate that J-31 will be inducted. (It was a point I made mainly targeted at other members; I don't think you argued on that.)
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
manqiangrexue said:
Ok, your point is that there are possibilities other than deficient performance or high cost, right? I accept those possibilities, but I don't think they are more probable than my 800 pound gorilla because:
1. Is it normal for a defense company to develop an extremely complex and expensive system that there was no tender for? Not to my knowledge.
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We actually don’t know how much the J-31 costs but yes, actually—*especially* when some of that money has already been spent. Remember, the J-31 is derivative of SAC’s J-XX submission.

2. Is it normal for the PLAN to hesitate for so long and refuse public funding/support for a carrier fighter if it is very good and the PLAN clearly has no better choices in front of it? I don't think so.
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It’s not hesitation if they never asked for it. It’s unlikely the PLAN has settled on what their requirements are, which wouldn’t be unusual since they’ve only just started fielding carrier fighters, and even if they have it’s unlikely they’d just take whatever is off the shelf without assessing their options first, which is the whole point of a naval stealth fighter contest. If the J-31 wasn’t selected because the formal process for selection hasn’t been completed that tells us nothing about how appealing or not it is for a service.

But even if SAC built a great, cheap light weight stealth fighter but the PLAAF/PLAN don't want it because it doesn't fit their planning, then J-31 will still not be produced, which supports my thought that there is absolutely nothing to indicate that J-31 will be produced. (It was a point I made mainly targeted at other members; I don't think you argued on that.)
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Again, the J-31 doesn’t have to be produced for SAC to receive R&D dividends from the project. I have no opinions on whether the J-31 will be produced or not. My point is simply that just because it never gets picked up that doesn’t make it a waste of money.
 
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