Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

latenlazy said:

But if the PLA intends to have the capability to uproot US bases in the Pacific stealth fighter will still be significant assets.

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I don't think we're at the cusp of that capability quite yet, even with J-31. You're talkin' about big big goals, probably left to future Sino-carriers superior to the Ford and fighters that are at least 6th, maybe 7th gen? So I will stay with my view that there is no rush, but there is the need to do things very right.

manqiangrexue said:

I don't think we're at the cusp of that capability quite yet, even with J-31. You're talkin' about big big goals, probably left to future Sino-carriers superior to the Ford and fighters that are at least 6th, maybe 7th gen? So I will stay with my view that there is no rush, but there is the need to do things very right.

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It might be a long and tough trudge...Constant progress and resources required.

manqiangrexue said:

I don't think we're at the cusp of that capability quite yet, even with J-31. You're talkin' about big big goals, probably left to future Sino-carriers superior to the Ford and fighters that are at least 6th, maybe 7th gen? So I will stay with my view that there is no rush, but there is the need to do things very right.

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I think we have to agree to disagree. As far as I know there are no navalized 5th gen birds other than J31 or perhaps an 'Improved' J31. In my opinion it would be a huge mistake to skip a while new generation of aircraft considering the AF already has one and the defense industry knows how to make one. It takes years, likely decades to put a new model type aircraft online never mind a new generational one.
If I'm reading what you're saying, it appears that you think PLAN should skip 5th gen altogether and go right into 6th Gen after the J15. That would be a good 15-20 years from now.... likely more.
With the careful but aggressive nature of PLAN I just do not see it happening. I am almost sure you will see a navalized 5th gen in PLAN colors flying together with the J15s in the not so distant future.

kwaigonegin said:

I think we have to agree to disagree. As far as I know there are no navalized 5th gen birds other than J31 or perhaps an 'Improved' J31. In my opinion it would be a huge mistake to skip a while new generation of aircraft considering the AF already has one and the defense industry knows how to make one. It takes years, likely decades to put a new model type aircraft online never mind a new generational one.
If I'm reading what you're saying, it appears that you think PLAN should skip 5th gen altogether and go right into 6th Gen after the J15. That would be a good 15-20 years from now.... likely more.
With the careful but aggressive nature of PLAN I just do not see it happening. I am almost sure you will see a navalized 5th gen in PLAN colors flying together with the J15s in the not so distant future.

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Skip 5th for 6th? Oh, no that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying there is no need to rush and slap J-31 on a carrier if there is something "undesirable" about it. When I said 6th to 7th gen, I was thinking that by the time the PLA reaches or exceeds parity with American military power, we would be dealing with least 6th gen, maybe even 7th gen fighters.

I feel like the PLAN is hesitating a lot on J-31, which indicates to me that possibly something about its performance is not ideal. (Maybe it's other reasons but I feel like this is a big likelihood.) So I think if we have to design another 5th gen from the get-go as a naval fighter to really get things right, we should do that rather than "settle" for J-31 just because it's already nearly here. The reason is because I feel that there is no rush to get any mediocre stealth fighter on a carrier if we can wait a bit and get an outstanding one. And the reasons for which I feel that there is no rush are outlined here: https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/shenyang-fc-31-j-31-fighter-demonstrator.t5693/page-524#post-490596

manqiangrexue said:

Skip 5th for 6th? Oh, no that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying there is no need to rush and slap J-31 on a carrier if there is something "undesirable" about it. When I said 6th to 7th gen, I was thinking that by the time the PLA reaches or exceeds parity with American military power, we would be dealing with least 6th gen, maybe even 7th gen fighters.

I feel like the PLAN is hesitating a lot on J-31, which indicates to me that possibly something about its performance is not ideal. (Maybe it's other reasons but I feel like this is a big likelihood.) So I think if we have to design another 5th gen from the get-go as a naval fighter to really get things right, we should do that rather than "settle" for J-31 just because it's already nearly here. The reason is because I feel that there is no rush to get any mediocre stealth fighter on a carrier if we can wait a bit and get an outstanding one. And the reasons for which I feel that there is no rush are outlined here: https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/shenyang-fc-31-j-31-fighter-demonstrator.t5693/page-524#post-490596

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Ahh ok gotcha.. well you could be right but from a timeline perspective it may be a tad too late.. again basing my assumption that there is NO 5th gen bird other than J20 and J31 it will take many many years.. certainly over a decade if they decide to start from a blank sheet of paper tomorrow... my contention is it is better to have a 'mediocre' 5th gen navalized F/A bird today than to have a very good 5th gen 15 years from now.

Of course if SAC, CAC etc is already in a somewhat mature stage of ANOTHER 5th gen bird that we are totally unaware of then my argument would of course be moot.

In my opinion, the 5th gen fighter is simply not a priority for the PLAN at the moment. The immediate goal for the PLAN is to establish a robust carrier fighter program. Everyone seems to agree that the PLAN will have at least 4-5 carriers. They need to obtain enough fighters and train up enough pilots. And it seems to me that they have decided that their J-15’s are perfect for the job. Even the USN is still planning to keep their F-18’s for the foreseeable future.

Just based on how slow the J-31 is progressing, my guess is that the Chinese military in general is not very satisfied in the fighter. You can see how fast they move things when they are satisfied with the systems, such as the 055 destroyers, the carriers, the J-20 and even the J-16’s. They’ve bulked up their J16 squadrons so fast. Their new advanced destroyers are popping up like groundhogs in spring. And it seems that every the other week, they come up with a new design of a UAV. And they are now testing new engines, possibly even with TVC, on the J-20. Yet, the J-31 has been still stuck at its second prototype for how long?!

My guess is that there may be another 5th gen speciallized naval fighter being designed at we speak. It may even be inspired by the J-31, but it is likely a clean design. Who knows...

Just as I’m warming up to the second prototype of the J-31 and thinking that it is about to pick up some steam, everything grinds to a halt again...

The pace is truly amazing and it is also quite true the PLA and branches slow down programs they do not see quality in e.g. J-11D and J-31. I don't think J-31's marginal stealth advantage over J-20 is worth the extra financial pain and the drop in capability. If J-20 cannot be eventually navalised and future UCAVs cannot fulfill the naval J-31's role, only then will we likely see them conducting trials. SAC must be aiming for this and probably already have some prototypes targeting the naval role since they've all the experience from J-15. I think forgoing this whole business of matching carrier borne F-35 is a waste for China. In coming decades, China will still be playing catch up and will only ever possibly fight defensively in the region. J-15 as a carrier fighter does this job. There are other better ways to counter stealth fighters in a defensive position. What China ought to be doing is pursuing those and investing in the next step. Kind of like how they leapfrogged the West in many areas like transport, computing, electronics etc. Pouring a fortune into J-31 to match F-35 is preparing for a stupid battle China cannot win and is behind on. Maybe they have certain programs in place exploring new HGV, ASBM, DEW ....... and who knows what else. Could explain the snail's pace for inducting and trialing VLO fighters on carriers. Everything else is at light speed and this is so slow despite having at least two working stealth fighters?? I think there's more to this than a simple J-20 vs J-31 for carrier fighter.

Even if China is to use its carriers against drastically less capable foes, modern air defense systems which are widely proliferated would pose a significant threat against 4th and 4.5 generation aircraft - the recent shootdown of a RSAF F-15 over Yemen by an old S75 missile shows this pretty clearly. In a conflict with a technological peer power or a superior foe, carriers will still be a central part of the PLAN's ability to keep its sea lanes open and take the fight away from its shores, and for that a 5th generation platform is urgently needed, and even a bit late IMHO.

vesicles said:

In my opinion, the 5th gen fighter is simply not a priority for the PLAN at the moment. The immediate goal for the PLAN is to establish a robust carrier fighter program. Everyone seems to agree that the PLAN will have at least 4-5 carriers. They need to obtain enough fighters and train up enough pilots. And it seems to me that they have decided that their J-15’s are perfect for the job. Even the USN is still planning to keep their F-18’s for the foreseeable future.

Just based on how slow the J-31 is progressing, my guess is that the Chinese military in general is not very satisfied in the fighter. You can see how fast they move things when they are satisfied with the systems, such as the 055 destroyers, the carriers, the J-20 and even the J-16’s. They’ve bulked up their J16 squadrons so fast. Their new advanced destroyers are popping up like groundhogs in spring. And it seems that every the other week, they come up with a new design of a UAV. And they are now testing new engines, possibly even with TVC, on the J-20. Yet, the J-31 has been still stuck at its second prototype for how long?!

My guess is that there may be another 5th gen speciallized naval fighter being designed at we speak. It may even be inspired by the J-31, but it is likely a clean design. Who knows...

Just as I’m warming up to the second prototype of the J-31 and thinking that it is about to pick up some steam, everything grinds to a halt again...

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There's no reason why they can't do both. In fact, the development of the catapult and the implementation of power generation units (reactors and whatnot) on future vessels are intimately tied in with the development and proposal of future CV-based aircraft. We know that the J-15T did hundreds of tests from the electromagnetic catapult and therefore I can assume that future design and decision-making surrounding catapults (and supporting equipment) will have to take into account both what the PLANAF plans to field and also what the limit of Chinese aircraft design is.

In summary, the PLANAF would have to commit to a design, and recent rumors from Huitong and other PLA followers suggest so, in order to clearly define the future direction of its carrier program and overall structure of its airwings.

I personally believe that the Type 001A (Type 002 for some) will be the last PLAN vessel to field J-15s.

J-15 is far superior to J-31 in many respects. If the aim is to match the technical ability of USN F-35 in pacific, I doubt a few dozens will do the trick. Nor will it provide much deterrence if political climates decay to the point of actually using these and going into war. Pouring immense sums into such a program is too great an opportunity cost. By the time J-31 is fully inducted in numbers and crews are trained up to match USN, PLAN still won't have numerical or technical advantage. Counter stealth tactics and detection will have improved to negate the advantages of VLO fighters. By then J-15's superior load, range, and kinematic performance will be a far more useful asset for the price it can be built in huge numbers as well. China should not be using J-31 to counter F-35. I've little faith the J-31 will be a better fighter than F-35. If it came to a war where F-35 will be used aggressively by US and Japan, i'd prefer PLA to have methods of eliminating USN carriers and bases before those assets can be put into use. It's better to have those methods ready and in numbers than have a few dozen new J-31s go up against the entire USN pacific fleet of F-35s and Japanese as well.

China being behind US on these developments actually has somewhat of an advantage in being able to see what the US has and possibly exploit weaknesses. Following their model only puts them forever ahead. If the point is to actually counter any possible US aggression effectively, PLA need to develop asymmetric strategies and hardware. Carriers and subs were examples of this when developed a century ago to destroy typical surface combatants. China just needs to do the same whilst still investing in conventional weapons.