Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

Centrist said:

Huitong made it very clear in this forum that the J-19 is a single-seat multirole right. I suppose this doesn't exclude strike missions, but arent strike fighters usually two-seaters? Huitong says J-19 is single seat only.

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F-35.
And usually when we say a fighter is "multirole" it means A2A+A2G capability are both there in droves. Not a lot else it can refer to... recon? ISR? EW? In most cases it means a fighter has significant precision strike capability (either with a large bomb load, or able to support a large variety of PGMs).

It might make sense to field it as a strike fighter, but not alongside the J-16, J-17, and JH-7B which all are said to do the same thing.
It doesnt makes sense to field the J-20 and J-19 together for air superiority. That's like the US spending money to develop the F-22 and T-50. What's the point? The F-22 is superior, save your money and buy more of them....instead of throwing you money on another plane that uses different parts and complicates logistics.

If the PLAAF is going to use J-19 alongside the J-20, I think its going to be one of the greatest blunders in its history.

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Again, you're assuming both are the same role. J-19 sounds to be kind of what the Strike eagle or MKK is to the F-15 or Su-27, only that it will be a single seater and likely cheaper.
If J-19 is a multirole strike aircraft and cheaper than J-20 we may well see PLAAF flankers and JH-7As eventually replaced by a mixture of the two planes. It won't be a blunder at all, especially if J-19 will be using WS-15 engines as we've been hearing either.

The procurement of J-16, J-17 and JH-7B seem all far less certain than J-19 at the moment, but that doesn't change the fact J-19 will not be filling the same role as J-20 (from what we're hearing)

Centrist said:

Well that is interesting. Everything he said fits fairly well with the other rumors flouting around.

But, J-19 is not a striker, according to Huitong. Nor does the article state or imply that J-19 is a striker, so I am not sure where you got that. Now what is odd, why do they need SAC's 4th gen design aloneside the J-20? What advantage could that possibly have?

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J-20 is too expensive to procure in large number. It is also a single-role fighter specially designed for one opponent. Eventually, PLAAF will need something cheaper and multi-role capable, which is what SAC is gambling on.

The PLA could possibly go along the way that reflects the usual categorization of jetfighters as shown below.

___________________4th Gen__________________________________ 5th Gen(Stealth/partly stealthized)

Air Superiority_______ J-10A/B,J-11B + Older flanker variants._________J-20

Multirole____________SU-30MKK,J-11BS. Naval = J-11BSH,J-15_______ J-19?,J-19 Navalized/Carrier ver.?

Striker(Bomber)______JH-7A____________________________________ JH-7B?

Notwithstanding that the J-19 and JH-7B (and a whole lot of others) are still speculative, it's logical to speculate that the PLAAF (together with PLANAF) will try to avoid redundancy and instead strive to completely fullfill all the different roles as categorized above.

Edit: For the moment, using the underscore is the only way I can think of to draw the table. Just think of the "underscore" as "space".

Centrist said:

Well that is interesting. Everything he said fits fairly well with the other rumors flouting around.

But, J-19 is not a striker, according to Huitong. Nor does the article state or imply that J-19 is a striker, so I am not sure where you got that. Now what is odd, why do they need SAC's 4th gen design aloneside the J-20? What advantage could that possibly have?

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the part about J-19 was just my observation. Maybe i shouldn't have used the numbering designation. It just speculative anyway, and confusing as well. I'm referring to the Shenyang stealth striker that is (or was) the topic of this thread. The same plane has been nicknamed the "Snowy Owl" by some.

Regarding the necessity of this plane, i have no sources on this..... but i can only speculate that SAC, having lost the J-20 competition, found a cunning way to get their part of the stealth pie. They foresaw the PLAAF's need for a stealthy, regional bomber. They realized that CAC was going to be focusing entirely on the air-superiority fighter, and they figured out they could get a stealth fighter bomber ready much sooner than CAC could. Consider that the F-22 only received basic ground attack capabilities in 2009 with the integration of the SDB, almost 20 years after the prototype made its maiden flight, and nearly a decade after its service entry. Had the Americans gone ahead with the FB-22 program, that might have taken even longer. Going by that timeline, and given that Huzhigeng has made it clear that J-20's sole purpose is air superiority (for now), i dont think the J-20 would be getting any ground attack/DEAD capabilities before 2030. Of course, the J-20 program has moved a lot faster than the F-22 program, but even then it is going to take CAC four or five years 'after' the air-superiority version enters service around 2018 before they can add any meaningful ground attack/multirole capabilities to the J-20, meaning 2023 or later.

The question we should be asking is.. Is the PLAAF willing to wait that long for an aircraft that can reliably penetrate an enemy IADS? The whole bet behind the SAC striker seems to be that they aren't. They want an FB-22 analogue, and they want it to enter service at around the same time as the J-20. This is understandable, because they dont have a modern, survivable bomber in service right now, and there are no indications that there's going to be one any time soon. In this context, the need of a stealthy, regional bomber becomes paramount. Hence a stealth fighter bomber program in parallel with the J-20.


Now, there's the multirole flanker program too (J-16) which seems to be an extensive avionics upgrade to the J-11B. Once this aircraft is introduced, it is perfectly possible that existing J-11B aircraft as well as the J-15 will receive a block upgrade to bring them up to the J-16 level, and the old J-11A/J-8 fleet would get replaced by newer production aircraft, all of which are fully multirole. But does it make sense to have a multirole flanker when you're also developing an FB-22 equivalent? I think it does, because then you'd have a Su-35S / Su-34 like force structure, with a dedicated bomber and a multirole fighter in service at the same time.

Now what is even more interesting is the J-17 upgrade to the airframe. A reduced RCS J-11 that would be the ultimate evolution of the flanker, surpassing the Su-35S in capabilities. And, the same capabilities if introduced on the J-15 will turn it into a multirole, reduced rcs fighter that far surpasses the F/A-18E and Rafale-M and rivals the Growth Hornet in capabilities.

Damn.. speculating is so much fun

Way way way too much speculation, rumours, wishful thinking.

I strongly doubt there are that many projects going on, or most of these designation are even going to be used. Some of these post are becoming way....too much like those fanboy or amateur post that base fact with wishful thinking. Us SDF members should be more than intelligent enough to separate smoke from fact.


We can see that:
Q-5 regiments are being replaced by JH-7A.

J-8 regiments being replaced by J-11B.

J-7 regiments being replaced by J-10.

Most likely:

Some J-11 variant is being worked on. We call it for now J-11X

JH-7A might soon end production so some form of replacement is being worked on. We call it for now JH-7X

J-10A we can safely say that they are going to be replaced in production with J-10B

J-20 definitely not just rumours.

J-XX possibly something from Shenyang

J-15 have visual confirmation of existance

J-HH it won't be in development until the J-15 has operated from the Varyag. J-HH will be based off the experience gained from the feedback given from J-15 carrier pilots. They have zero experience and don't know what they need yet, so its reckless for them to design a carrier aircraft at the moment.

Note: HH & XX aren't designations.

Where are these new airframes going to be assigned to:

Well we know that regiments that perform well get the new toys first, while the ones not performing as well either have to wait or get the new toys handed down to them from another regiment.

So J-10B will either:
* replace remaining J-7 regiments
* replace existing J-10A regiments, and the J-10A get handed over to the J-7 regiment

JH-7X: same situation as J-10B but instead will replace Q-5 regiment

J-11X: replace some of the ageing J-11 frames or replace the remaining J-8.

I don't want to comment on the rumoured H-X.

This post is looking from now till 2020.

^^ x2, have the same thinking and can't describe it any better

everyone is free to speculate, but maybe we want to tone it down just a little bit and wait eagerly for Shenyang's bird
instead of looking at big items, there are still many things worth watching in PLA

paintgun said:

^^ x2, have the same thinking and can't describe it any better

everyone is free to speculate, but maybe we want to tone it down just a little bit and wait eagerly for Shenyang's bird
instead of looking at big items, there are still many things worth watching in PLA

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indeed. a very valid point. My post was just in response to centrist's question. why want another 4th gen design when you already have the J-20 coming? The only explanation can be that this plane is meant for carrying heavy a2g weaponry that the j-20 cannot. This fits in with the rumors of this plane being heavier than the J-20 and being less optimised for a2a roles.

PS: i found these graphics. I have no idea how credible they are. But I remember last year a similar graphic had come out comparing four different configurations of the J-20 on the same parameters as in this graphic. I'll just post them. the only comment i'll venture to make is that as these are canard configurations, they are unlikely to have anything to have to do with Shenyang. Source of the graphics is Prasun Sengupta's Blog.

HKSDU said:

Way way way too much speculation, rumours, wishful thinking.

I strongly doubt there are that many projects going on, or most of these designation are even going to be used. Some of these post are becoming way....too much like those fanboy or amateur post that base fact with wishful thinking. Us SDF members should be more than intelligent enough to separate smoke from fact.


We can see that:
Q-5 regiments are being replaced by JH-7A.

J-8 regiments being replaced by J-11B.

J-7 regiments being replaced by J-10.

Most likely:

Some J-11 variant is being worked on. We call it for now J-11X

JH-7A might soon end production so some form of replacement is being worked on. We call it for now JH-7X

J-10A we can safely say that they are going to be replaced in production with J-10B

J-20 definitely not just rumours.

J-XX possibly something from Shenyang

J-15 have visual confirmation of existance

J-HH it won't be in development until the J-15 has operated from the Varyag. J-HH will be based off the experience gained from the feedback given from J-15 carrier pilots. They have zero experience and don't know what they need yet, so its reckless for them to design a carrier aircraft at the moment.

Note: HH & XX aren't designations.

Where are these new airframes going to be assigned to:

Well we know that regiments that perform well get the new toys first, while the ones not performing as well either have to wait or get the new toys handed down to them from another regiment.

So J-10B will either:
* replace remaining J-7 regiments
* replace existing J-10A regiments, and the J-10A get handed over to the J-7 regiment

JH-7X: same situation as J-10B but instead will replace Q-5 regiment

J-11X: replace some of the ageing J-11 frames or replace the remaining J-8.

I don't want to comment on the rumoured H-X.

This post is looking from now till 2020.

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Agreed. But J-10B and J-15 development is nearly complete, with production imminent. So that leaves us with:

At Chengdu:

- J-20: in flight testing
- a JF-17 upgrade: rumored to be in flight testing or close to flight testing
- a single engined stealth fighter: rumored to be in early design stage (a possible successor to the J-10??)


At Shenyang:

- a multirole J-11 upgrade (J-16?): rumored
- a stealthy J-11 upgrade (J-17?): rumored
- a stealthy heavy striker (J-19?): rumored to be close to first flight

At Xian:

- a stealthy JH-7 variant: rumored
- possible strategic bomber program

In my opinion, three aircraft projects at 'different' stages of development at Chengdu and Shenyang should be quite manageable. how many out of these will see service is, of course, a different question altogether. Also I agree that the possibility of another carrier-borne aircraft project at this time is remote. OTOH, wouldn't it be cheaper to replace both the J-8/J-11A and the Q-5/JH-7A with a single multirole plane?

The only thing I am worring about the SAC J-XX is that we might not be able to see many high quality

pictures comparing to the J-20.The SAC is quit conserve and it always has a heavy airfield security guard

against the CAC who is quit open minded and always welcome the wall-climbing party to take a look.

I am curiouse to know how many wall-climbing party members will stay in the outside airfield when the

temperature in Shenyang is -20 degree in winter and take the picture about the J-XX.

development cost for new generation of fighter aircraft are pretty expensive.doubt if PLAAF/PLAN able to finance all the project.