I don't think it will work using India as a crowbar. I think I can use RCEP as a example how India will just be the only party not participating. How the damage one party can do to the group be isolated and contained.
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation
- Thread starter Strangelove
- Start date
Exactly, for economic it won't work, but for security like SCO is another story.
I can't speak for everyone, but I think people with rational mind do not dispute the fact that India will become economically in the top tier.
Many people's issue with India is not its potential or importance, but its intention and action with regarding China.
This is the difference between you and many others. Good will is a two direction road, with India in QUAD (against China) China has no interest in letting India being more influential in central Asia (the Afghanistan affair which started the whole discussion). I see the "exclusion" of India in Afghanistan as a deliberate act of China to sideline India in SCO in dealing its core business. It is up to the Indians to make the right choice before it can get more involved. If India keeps playing its game, China will (need to) keep India out of some games.
India's participation in the Quad hasn't resulted in anything. Nor will it result in anything. India's own actions of de-dollarizing and supporting multi-polar world has been more beneficial to China than anything it has done in the Quad. Frankly, all of the actions that it has taken against China would've happened regardless of the Quad.
The Quad is meaningless. Just like the AUKUS
Anyways, first trains flew into Laos capital from Kunming
Pretty exciting moment for the two countries
More on the Midea deal in Brazil. 700 million RMB investment for 1.3 million units of consumer goods
Another day and another coup attempt by America
This is after Russian ship dock'd at Sudan. IIRC, China has been negotiation to sell weapons to Sudan(mentioned J-10C, but maybe ground equipments are more appropriate now). Maybe it can speed that up a little bit
I feel necessary to clarify my position because you seem to use de-dollarization to support the idea of involving India in Afghanistan twice in your post to me, for which I have not responded. I just want to be sure that you know that I treat these two separately pretty much like how China deals with SK and Japan, keeping good trade but pushing back them in security. India's de-dollarization is good for and welcomed by China, but it is firstly for India's own sake, not a favor to China, it doesn't deserve China's reward in security domain, but China is happy to collaborate with India in financial domain as the Chinese saying goes 一码归一码.
Oh, I think Indian involvement in Afghanistan don't matter all that much. But I think in geopolitical sense, it would be in China's interest to work with India where their interests may align. I don't really see China's relationship with SK and Japan in the same way as India. SK and Japan have peaked and are heading downward. By 2050, India will be a way bigger power than both of those countries. Vietnam would be equal to SK by then. China will destroy Japan and SK's industries and that impoverish those two countries in medium term. Long term, they have horrible population demographic issues which will be their complete downfall.
I think China needs to think long and hard about how it deals with India, because India will get stronger.
That’s not a given. India invests far too little in education and infrastructure.
Good post. Let’s hope Bolsonaro was just minor blip in Brazil Chinese relationship and brazil will be forever free of US interference
I find David Woo's discussion on Brazil-China-US talk with 3 Brazilian experts enlightening especially when the topic at hand deals with Lulas visit to China, the signed agreements, some Bolsonaro policies that are kept in place. Plus the impact of the Russian-Ukraine conflict and how China can play a major role in Lulas 3rd act in trying to help his country benefit from the partnership as it had back in mid 2000s.
Weather India get strong or not, the intention on china won't change. Sidelining India on security but keep economic co-operation is the best long term strategic. Also china has lots of interest in India neighbor enemies like Pakistan, Nepal, Maldives. They are too valuable for china to give up for India.
Also with AI technologies, having demographics like India won't work anymore. It will be burden instead.