Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
I don't think pan-Turkism is much of a threat to China. The only central Asian state that is culturally close to Turkey is Azerbaijan. Regarding Xinjiang, there's not much Turkey can do that the US and Soviet have tried and failed at already. If they choose to remain on the sinking ship that is NATO it's them that will be losing out.
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Pan-Turkism isn't an issue? Think again.
Did you know a few days before the earthquake Turkey embassy was still spreading the Xinjiang issue through its official Weibo? Guess who reads Turkey's Weibo, it's not the domestic Turkish voting audience. They have now deleted the weibo post and only has a post asking for donations. Check out the tone in their post.
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【地震捐款账户】
在2023年2月6日地震之后,在土耳其灾害和应急管理局(AFAD)的指挥下紧急开展灾区了救援工作,目前还在紧张地进行着。此外,我们也收到了很多善良的中国人民提出希望支持地震灾区的搜索和救援,为土耳其受地震影响的人们提供援助。为了不让这些请求得不到答复,我们认为有必要在下面分享我们政府部门的地震捐款帐号,供希望支持我们受灾公民的捐助者使用。
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TK3600

Major
Registered Member
perhaps simply because Russia has more cards ( like nukes ) in its hands and therefore more self-respect?
It is not about national power or nukes. If Iran constantly worship west despite western sanction being root cause of its destitution, will you help this guy? What is stopping them take your money and go aid your enemy? They are not showing any rational thought. Even Indians know better than this. Self respect is not about national power, you don't need nukes to think like a functional human.

This is why I am skeptical of Iran cooperation despite many rational reasons to approach them. Iran is not rational on a national level. I would sooner trust Indians and that is saying something.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
You see this is where things are even more annoying. Iran has no Western tech options, but they'd rather pick Russia over China, lol. Saudis have all the choices in the world and they pick Chinese tech.
You nailed it. Saudis had all the choice in the world including very good relation with US but they choose to alienate US in the Russian crisis and choose China from trade to security. If this is not sign of loyalty and commitment I do not know what is.

Meanwhile Iran is doing everything to resist Chinese influence even when China is the only one left willing to help. They would sooner worship their enemy than accept China. This is a sign of irrationality. Many people here fall in the trap of "rational interest". This is how a functional human thinks to maximize their interest. Iran has shown time and time again they are not rational. It really is ironic because the extremely radical Islamic faction is the rational voice of the country approaching China. It is saying something when the most rational voice in Iran come from radical Islamists, everyone else are crazier.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
I will frame GCC and Iran as two friends from college and China as a CEO of a start up.

GCC has a reliable job at a world renowned corporation called USA. It pays him very well and he can very well retire at this point. Seeing China starting his business competing with USA he invested handsomely to aid China despite the protest from his boss USA. "I think I am important enough to not be fired, but if they want to fire me for helping out my homie then so be it."

Iran also worked at USA but was fired a long time ago. It was a very bad incident and USA made sure no company in the same industry would ever consider hire Iran. China offered him an entry job at his start up in spite of his poor reputation. Iran feels slighted because he used to be in senior management. He also don't like his rival back in college GCC now outrank him. He is constantly writing letter to USA wishing to get his old job back, despite the absurdity of it. "You know I deserve better than this bro. I was in upper management once. I am willing to take your entry offer for now so you should be grateful"

Who is the real bro here? Who is the guy you tolerate as long as he do his job?
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
At one side you have a country which actively takes a decision to leave its comfortable US-couch and join China as a good and obedient little brother.

At the other side, you got a poor country living in scraps, they don't do anything by themselves and China has to do all the courting. Even then, they still don't want to sit in the China-couch. And even if they wanted, they don't want be an obedient little brother

While its not a binary choice, I sure know my preference on what kind of country I would like to have in my camp. Loyalty(by proper strategic signalling) first, everything else is secondary.
That's not to say that this is a binary choice, but Iran should definitely not expect the tier-1 treatment that Saudi Arabia is going to get.

Hopefully in this visit, Iran has learned the lesson from the GCC-China summit and has wised-up on how to properly view and approach its relations with China
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
They are not willing to subordinate themselves to China.
Sounds to me like this is the only thing you really care about. Other countries should obediently subordinate themselves. How very American. I'm sorry, but no country is going to subordinate itself to China unless they lose a war and get conquered.

China's approach in modern times has always been based on mutual respect, not expecting others to worship China

No Iran has nothing to offer China except natural resources. It seems like you are unaware of where China's technology base is to Iran
Is it that difficult to understand that adding a population of about 5% of China at a similar level of development would add about 5% to science and technology? Of course there's no direct technology that Iran has that it could give to China, but it has human resources and industrial markets. For example, a Chinese tech company can benefit from opening a research centre in Moscow but it can also benefit from one in Tehran

Given that China is big, any individual relationship will add relatively little, so China should seek many allies


Meanwhile Iran is doing everything to resist Chinese influence even when China is the only one left willing to help.
Is there really any evidence for this? Is China offering weapons to Iran? I'm sure they would love to buy Chinese planes. Would China be willing to sell?

Where do you get this idea from that Iranians are pro US and anti China? There's a very loud overseas minority, not dissimilar to American born Chinese, many of who worship the West. But at home even biased polling by CSIS finds that Iranians view China and Russia equally favourably and really don't like America

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tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
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Sounds to me like this is the only thing you really care about. Other countries should obediently subordinate themselves. How very American. I'm sorry, but no country is going to subordinate itself to China unless they lose a war and get conquered.

China's approach in modern times has always been based on mutual respect, not expecting others to worship China


Is it that difficult to understand that adding a population of about 5% of China at a similar level of development would add about 5% to science and technology? Of course there's no direct technology that Iran has that it could give to China, but it has human resources and industrial markets. For example, a Chinese tech company can benefit from opening a research centre in Moscow but it can also benefit from one in Tehran

Given that China is big, any individual relationship will add relatively little, so China should seek many allies
Tehran has nothing science & technology to offer to China.

And guess what, Russia has very little science & tech to offer to China either by this point.
Is there really any evidence for this? Is China offering weapons to Iran? I'm sure they would love to buy Chinese planes. Would China be willing to sell?
Oh China has definitely offered weapons to Iran. Not its best stuff, but better stuff than what Iranians can build themselves. Iranian street should be all Chinese cars by now (like what we see in Russia). Has that happened? No, your have the liberal wing of Iran who simply worships the west and does not respect China.
Where do you get this idea from that Iranians are pro US and anti China? There's a very loud overseas minority, not dissimilar to American born Chinese, many of who worship the West. But at home even biased polling by CSIS finds that Iranians view China and Russia equally favourably and really don't like America

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pro-West is different from Pro-US. Iranians continue to hold very high view of European countries.

At the end of the day, Iran is lucky to have China extend its hand to them when everyone else has turned their backs on Iran. Has the liberal wing of Iran even appreciated China in supporting them or have they just questioned this relationship at every turn. Maybe the conservative wing will remain in power forever and that would be good for China. But at this point, liberals taking over Iran would be unfriendly to China. We will see what happens here. I don't think China needs to be antagonist to Iran. But at this point, we don't have any major road/rail project into Iran as part of BRI. That is China's signature soft power policy to rest of the world. That would indicate China is being very careful about Iran and/or Iran is cautious about allowing China into their infrastructure. Neither is a good sign for strong long term relationship.

If you look around Iran, China has CPEC with Pakistan and is looking to build relationship with Afghanistan. It's in a de facto alliance with Russia and supplies pretty much everything Russia needs. The GCC countries are becoming dependent on China for their future energy/ICT infrastructure and weapons. I just don't see the closeness.
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
Tehran has nothing science & technology to offer to China.

And guess what, Russia has very little science & tech to offer to China either by this point.
Neither have many technological assets to offer, but both have a substantial pool of skilled labour.

Oh China has definitely offered weapons to Iran. Not its best stuff, but better stuff than what Iranians can build themselves. Iranian street should be all Chinese cars by now (like what we see in Russia). Has that happened? No, your have the liberal wing of Iran who simply worships the west and does not respect China.
Wasn't Iran keen to buy the J-10C when the UN arms embargo expired but China was hesitant to sell? Why would Iran buy things like tanks and artillery from China if they have their own arms industry?

Iran doesn't import cars like certain other countries in the region, but they assemble foreign designs and put their local badge on it. They've continued building cars based on French designs but have started introducing Chinese ones as well. Russia can't build its own cars apparently. Iran can.

pro-West is different from Pro-US. Iranians continue to hold very high view of European countries.
In the poll I linked they didn't have a very positive view of France either. I'm sure the UK isn't very popular as well. Usually Germany is very respected. Surprisingly, Chinese aren't that different and also still have a very high view of Germany. People are very slow to learn

the end of the day, Iran is lucky to have China extend its hand to them when everyone else has turned their backs on Iran. Has the liberal wing of Iran even appreciated China in supporting them or have they just questioned this relationship at every turn. Maybe the conservative wing will remain in power forever and that would be good for China. But at this point, liberals taking over Iran would be unfriendly to China. We will see what happens here. I don't think China needs to be antagonist to Iran. But at this point, we don't have any major road/rail project into Iran as part of BRI. That is China's signature soft power policy to rest of the world. That would indicate China is being very careful about Iran and/or Iran is cautious about allowing China into their infrastructure. Neither is a good sign for strong long term relationship.
How can you be surprised that there's a pro China and a pro western faction? That's the case in many countries. Even European allies of the US have pro Russia parties in their parliaments. They can be very loud, but they're not representative. The West has already demonstrated to Iran that it's unreliable by breaking the nuclear deal. In response, Iran signed the comprehensive strategic partnership with China. So now China has the opportunity to demonstrate that it is a reliable partner unlike the West. The approach that you're advocating would make Iranians see China as equally unreliable as Europe. I guess that's what you would do to empower the liberals in Iran who've lost so much power since the failure of the nuclear deal. If both pro West and pro East factions fail, the state may fail when the supreme leader dies and he's old and frail. Instability is unpredictable and bad for everyone. Chaos in Iraq has already damaged the whole region

I just don't see the closeness
Before the new cold war, there wasn't much closeness. But I believe things are changing now. China obeys western sanctions because western markets and technology are still very important. But now that China is getting sanctioned anyway, it might as well break all the sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea and others. So a new golden age in relations should be upon us. The dual circulation in the Chinese economy could be more than domestic Vs international trade. It could be trade with the world including sanctioned countries Vs trade with the west.
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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Registered Member
Neither have many technological assets to offer, but both have a substantial pool of skilled labour.
China is not going to share advanced tech with other countries. That pool of skilled labor is just meaningless.
Wasn't Iran keen to buy the J-10C when the UN arms embargo expired but China was hesitant to sell? Why would Iran buy things like tanks and artillery from China if they have their own arms industry?

Iran doesn't import cars like certain other countries in the region, but they assemble foreign designs and put their local badge on it. They've continued building cars based on French designs but have started introducing Chinese ones as well. Russia can't build its own cars apparently. Iran can.
listed to yourself. China has the cars available and Iran just wants to wait for western products or Shan-zhai Chinese products. That's how it's always been. Iran gets Chinese design helps and then produce it for themselves.
How much economic benefits is in this relationship?
In the poll I linked they didn't have a very positive view of France either. I'm sure the UK isn't very popular as well. Usually Germany is very respected. Surprisingly, Chinese aren't that different and also still have a very high view of Germany. People are very slow to learn


How can you be surprised that there's a pro China and a pro western faction? That's the case in many countries. Even European allies of the US have pro Russia parties in their parliaments. They can be very loud, but they're not representative. The West has already demonstrated to Iran that it's unreliable by breaking the nuclear deal. In response, Iran signed the comprehensive strategic partnership with China. So now China has the opportunity to demonstrate that it is a reliable partner unlike the West. The approach that you're advocating would make Iranians see China as equally unreliable as Europe. I guess that's what you would do to empower the liberals in Iran who've lost so much power since the failure of the nuclear deal. If both pro West and pro East factions fail, the state may fail when the supreme leader dies and he's old and frail. Instability is unpredictable and bad for everyone. Chaos in Iraq has already damaged the whole region
nah, Europe gave them the complete finger. China can just have regular commerce with Iran and that's it.
There is no real pro-western factions in GCC countries or Russia or Pakistan to the degree you see in Iran.
Why does China need to demonstrate anything to Iran?
I don't get why you are so into helping Iran? Decades of sanctions have not killed off the pro-western faction of Iran. Decades of normal commerce has not allowed Chinese companies to dominate Iran's machinery import sector (like what we've seen in Russia in less than 1 year). And the 25 year agreement, which was made upon the assumption of JCPOA, got attacked by the liberal faction of Iran despite the fact that nobody else is offering anything to Iran.
It's amazing. Iran has not friend anywhere. China tries to be its friend and just get attacked inside Iran. With that kind of lack of appreciation, what's the point?
Just have regular commercial relationship with Iran that doesn't get yourself sanctioned.
Before the new cold war, there wasn't much closeness. But I believe things are changing now. China obeys western sanctions because western markets and technology are still very important. But now that China is getting sanctioned anyway, it might as well break all the sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea and others. So a new golden age in relations should be upon us. The dual circulation in the Chinese economy could be more than domestic Vs international trade. It could be trade with the world including sanctioned countries Vs trade with the west.
Again, be very careful about comparing Iran to Russia & NK. China has mutual defense agreement with NK and is in de facto alliance with Russia.
 
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