Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Pan-Turkism isn't an issue? Think again.
Did you know a few days before the earthquake Turkey embassy was still spreading the Xinjiang issue through its official Weibo? Guess who reads Turkey's Weibo, it's not the domestic Turkish voting audience. They have now deleted the weibo post and only has a post asking for donations. Check out the tone in their post.
That was in reference to pan-Turkism movement in Central Asian states. Some of them aren't even Turkic to begin with.

I agree that Turkish support for Xinjiang is a problem. If they continue down that path it will end very badly for Turkey. They are sitting on a much bigger Kurdish separatist problem of their own.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
There is no real pro-western factions in GCC countries or Russia or Pakistan to the degree you see in Iran.
Why does China need to demonstrate anything to Iran?
I don't get why you are so into helping Iran? Decades of sanctions have not killed off the pro-western faction of Iran. Decades of normal commerce has not allowed Chinese companies to dominate Iran's machinery import sector (like what we've seen in Russia in less than 1 year). And the 25 year agreement, which was made upon the assumption of JCPOA, got attacked by the liberal faction of Iran despite the fact that nobody else is offering anything to Iran.
It's amazing. Iran has not friend anywhere. China tries to be its friend and just get attacked inside Iran. With that kind of lack of appreciation, what's the point?
Just have regular commercial relationship with Iran that doesn't get yourself sanctioned.
While I disagree with some of your other points I don't see how anyone can disagree with this. Straight up facts.

Iran will have a normal commercial relationships with China, and that's ok. However I sure don't want to hear them whining when they see GCC states enjoying tier-1 treatment by China.
Its all part of a give and take. GCC are willing to give a lot, which naturally makes China willing to give a lot as well.

The GCC-China summit wasn't a fluke and if Iran is not idiotic, they should understand that GCC is simply pulling ahead of it on China. After all, don't forget the countless Chinese statements that for its Middle East's policy, its first priority is Saudi Arabia, and everyone is secondary. This should tell you a lot on how badly Iran has mismanaged its foreign policy the past years/decades
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
China is not going to share advanced tech with other countries. That pool of skilled labor is just meaningless.

listed to yourself. China has the cars available and Iran just wants to wait for western products or Shan-zhai Chinese products. That's how it's always been. Iran gets Chinese design helps and then produce it for themselves.
How much economic benefits is in this relationship?

nah, Europe gave them the complete finger. China can just have regular commerce with Iran and that's it.
There is no real pro-western factions in GCC countries or Russia or Pakistan to the degree you see in Iran.
Why does China need to demonstrate anything to Iran?
I don't get why you are so into helping Iran? Decades of sanctions have not killed off the pro-western faction of Iran. Decades of normal commerce has not allowed Chinese companies to dominate Iran's machinery import sector (like what we've seen in Russia in less than 1 year). And the 25 year agreement, which was made upon the assumption of JCPOA, got attacked by the liberal faction of Iran despite the fact that nobody else is offering anything to Iran.
It's amazing. Iran has not friend anywhere. China tries to be its friend and just get attacked inside Iran. With that kind of lack of appreciation, what's the point?
Just have regular commercial relationship with Iran that doesn't get yourself sanctioned.

Again, be very careful about comparing Iran to Russia & NK. China has mutual defense agreement with NK and is in de facto alliance with Russia.
You've not given a single reason why it's against China's interests to have good relations with Iran. Saudi and the GCC as a whole are a bigger economic block, I've not seen a single person here say relations with Iran should come at the cost of relations with the GCC, which is what your argument boils down to.

The pro-western faction is in power in all GCC countries. They spend billions on western military platforms helping them keep afloat, and some even have American and NATO bases stationed in their country. On the other hand the pro-western faction in Iran is either exiled or suppressed.

To highlight how absurd your thinking is replace Iran and GCC with any other regional conflict around the world. Ethiopia and Eritrea,, Turkey and Greece, and so on. Do you propose China ought to go around the world picking sides in every regional conflict?

No, China should encourage both sides to resolve their issues peacefully and cooperate with both. Why would you be opposed to that?
 

Andy1974

Senior Member
Registered Member
This is what is holding things up:
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Once that’s resolved then Iran becomes much easier to work with. An unsanctioned Iran is just as important as Saudi, Iran has gas which can be piped to China via Pakistan, and the same pipes can carry gas from Qatar.

Just as important is Irans geographical position, which is better than Saudi’s. Iran, as part of the BRI, can support large rail freight volumes between Europe and Middle East to their West and Pakistan, India and China to their East.

What I am also admiring is their support for Venezuela and other unilaterally sanctioned countries, they are able to help countries that China can’t, this makes them a powerful ally against the empire. They are doing a lot to usher in the new world order.

I also believe that Saudi and Iran are about to make peace, both leaders have said it clearly recently. They are doing this because of China.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
This is what is holding things up:
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Once that’s resolved then Iran becomes much easier to work with. An unsanctioned Iran is just as important as Saudi, Iran has gas which can be piped to China via Pakistan, and the same pipes can carry gas from Qatar.

Just as important is Irans geographical position, which is better than Saudi’s. Iran, as part of the BRI, can support large rail freight volumes between Europe and Middle East to their West and Pakistan, India and China to their East.

What I am also admiring is their support for Venezuela and other unilaterally sanctioned countries, they are able to help countries that China can’t, this makes them a powerful ally against the empire. They are doing a lot to usher in the new world order.

I also believe that Saudi and Iran are about to make peace, both leaders have said it clearly recently. They are doing this because of China.
I don't see an Iranian nuclear deal being signed any time soon.

In 2016 Iran was in a much weaker position. Both Russia and China were pressuring them to sign the agreement. Now they are insisting on Russian involvement in talks, China also seems to have moved forward with improving relations with Iran regardless of the progress of JCPOA.

Any new deal will need to be weaker on Iran than the original terms Iran signed back in 2016. America's position has weakened considerably since then. The Iranians will likely insist on provisions to prevent a party like America from walking away from it unilaterally as they did under Trump. What's the point in signing an agreement if the next politician elected will just cancel it?

The neocons in America consider Iran to be a much bigger threat than China and Russia and there's no way they will admit concessions. Summer last year they suddenly announced they wanted to restart negotiations (going back on a previous Biden pledge). The terms they offered were worse than 2016, so they were laughed out the door by Iran.

At the very least, Iran needs to be insisting on a financial penalty for any party that walks away from the agreement. I'd also want dates retroactive to the original signing of the deal. Just that alone is going to be a deal breaker for the neocons.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
With regards to China and the JCPOA, keeping the deal dead aligns very much in its interests. Right now the only country Iran is able to sell oil to in significant quantities to is China.

With a deal in place there will be a lot more countries lining up to buy Iranian oil and gas.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
With regards to China and the JCPOA, keeping the deal dead aligns very much in its interests. Right now the only country Iran is able to sell oil to in significant quantities to is China.

With a deal in place there will be a lot more countries lining up to buy Iranian oil and gas.
JCPOA was something that China wished to be done. In fact, I would say that the whole 25-year deal with Iran was made because China anticipated that Iran and the West would agree on the JCPOA deal

Call me pessimistic, but without JCPOA I cant see any big progress made on implementing the 25-year agreement
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
JCPOA was something that China wished to be done. In fact, I would say that the whole 25-year deal with Iran was made because China anticipated that Iran and the West would agree on the JCPOA deal

Call me pessimistic, but without JCPOA I cant see any big progress made on implementing the 25-year agreement
If the JCPOA breaking down was a problem it wouldn't have been signed. Back in 2021 there were no indications the deal was going to be revived. All this movement to restart it comes after the America was forced to sanction Russia after the war started and they needed alternative gas and oil providers.

If anything the 25 year agreement was a result of JCPOA collapsing. Iran only had China to turn to so they had no choice but to make a deal with China to develop their oil industry.
 

Andy1974

Senior Member
Registered Member
One way to resolve the JCPOA issue is for Iran to legitimately give up the pursuit of nukes. Perhaps they could be persuaded to really, really do this in return for something almost as good.

First, they could join Chinas efforts in the thorium nuclear field and nuclear fusion development, placing it in the top pack in new nuclear development. They can quickly build a tokamak, like they did in Thailand.

Second, China can sell Iran conventional arms that have a similar deterrence effect as their own nuclear weapons would have, such as hypersonic missiles, which have no known defense against.

Third, China can build consensus throughout the Arab world and the SCO for the plan, as this fits in with the SCO goals, especially that of Saudi Arabia.

With all of that in place, and at the same time as AUKUSA is proliferating nukes, I think the remaining parties can agree among themselves to lift sanctions, against the will of the US.

Do this when the US runs out of money and needs Chinas help desperately and there is a chance it could work.

A different outcome could occur if the US sanctions China to a similar amount as Iran, then China can cooperate as she pleases.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Oh China has definitely offered weapons to Iran. Not its best stuff, but better stuff than what Iranians can build themselves. Iranian street should be all Chinese cars by now (like what we see in Russia). Has that happened? No, your have the liberal wing of Iran who simply worships the west and does not respect China.
China sold some good stuff in the early 1990s such as the anti-ship missiles, but stopped under US pressure. China did not sell anything since that time, but neither to North Korea who has no western worshippers. Russia halted delivery of S-300 under US pressure only to deliver them when their relation with the west turned sore. I am trying to say that Iran not getting weapons from China and Russia is probably more to do with the two avoiding confrontation with US, not Iran not wanting for supposed "looking down on China" mentality.

To be fair, Pakistan chose to proceed JF-17 only because of risk of F-16 blockade, in that sense Pakistan is also "looking down on China". People always look for something "better", we shouldn't take grudge of it, otherwise China would have no friend.
 
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