Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation

tphuang

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I really liked this video explaining the current progress of BRI. It talked about something I haven't thought about. The scope of BRI projects have reduced because a lot of the infrastructure projects have already been built and now China can reap the reward of those projects. China only needs to have enough projects like the Tanzania that ensures that Chinese industrial/business interests get a leg up over everyone else that wants to trade with Africa. While in the past, Colonial powers use war to force African countries into unfair economic arrangement. China's infrastructure project allows it to be the partner of choice in trading. The long term goal here is to develop new market that China can trade with as America increasingly looks to decouple. David Goldman posted his chart a while back. The share of China's export to America as a % of GDP has decreased to like 2% due to the increased trading with the global south. America is not buying furnitures from China anymore? No problem, now China can make more money by selling cars to ASEAN countries and Australia/NZ. That's what all these infrastructure allows.

China missed out on the industrial revolution when it happened. It missed out on the start of PC and Internet age. It even missed out on the start of smartphone era. That's why all of the software, OS and apps used in today's worldwide ecosystem uses American systems. It doesn't want to miss the next revolution, hence all the investment into 5/6G, EVs, semiconductor, AI, cloud computing and such.

You will see that in the first phase of BRI, most of the projects are your traditional infrastructure. The next phase of BRI projects will be more in the digital Silk Road and health Silk Road domain. China increasingly talks about this.

It wants to control the phones people use, the apps people use, the os people use, the machines people use, the os that machines run on, the communication network people uses, the data center, the medicine, the cars....
 

tphuang

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So, after seeing that Pakistanis will be buying discounted oil from Russia, I saw this couple of articles from jamestown
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This is interesting in concept. A more prosperous and energy secure Pakistan is great for CPEC and China. Part of the issue with CPEC is that Pakistani still does not have enough of the basic infrastructure in place to get some of these more marquee projects to work. With Russia being at the mercy of Western countries in North Atlantic and Bosphorus Straits, it does help to have a path to Indian Ocean for Russia. The premise of Gwadar works better when it's getting a slice of the traffic to Russia and Central Asian countries. With gas pipelins from central asia/russia, Pakistan will be able to achieve energy security more easily. And if the situation in Afghanistan can ever calm down, there is a lot of natural resources that can be mined there.
 

Bellum_Romanum

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So, after seeing that Pakistanis will be buying discounted oil from Russia, I saw this couple of articles from jamestown
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This is interesting in concept. A more prosperous and energy secure Pakistan is great for CPEC and China. Part of the issue with CPEC is that Pakistani still does not have enough of the basic infrastructure in place to get some of these more marquee projects to work. With Russia being at the mercy of Western countries in North Atlantic and Bosphorus Straits, it does help to have a path to Indian Ocean for Russia. The premise of Gwadar works better when it's getting a slice of the traffic to Russia and Central Asian countries. With gas pipelins from central asia/russia, Pakistan will be able to achieve energy security more easily. And if the situation in Afghanistan can ever calm down, there is a lot of natural resources that can be mined there.
How is India going to take this recent Russian interest in partaking with their greatest nemesis, Pakistan.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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How is India going to take this recent Russian interest in partaking with their greatest nemesis, Pakistan.
By pivoting further to the West?

Even though I don't see that happening immediately, India fully pivoting towards the West in order to counter Pakistan and China is definitely a possibility for New Delhi, as long as Moscow keeps further enhancing cooperation and trade ties with their arch enemy Beijing.

Plus, as long as the confrontation and enmity between Washington DC and Beijing continues to intensify, sooner or later India would certainly find the US to be a better counterbalance against China than Russia is.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

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Its basically like seeing your dream girl now hooking with other guys.

Something similar is happening here. Iran's response is based upon emotions (jealously, bitterness, insecurity, anxiety etc.), not rationality.

Hopefully they can utilise this incident for a positive transformation. While Gulf states are constantly twerking, Iran is blowing hot and cold all the time while also giving blue balls to China lol. China might as well spend more time and effort with these "exciting" partners instead of bothering with the bipolar Iran
Iran is learning rapidly. They're finally going to the table with Saudi Arabia.


Thanks to @ACuriousPLAFan
 

getready

Senior Member
China can favor one country with more investment than other. That is not picking side. That is just business. The more one side has to offer the more other side can return. Nothing has changed economically. They both got deals. China is doing more trade with US than Pakistan and nobody is saying China prefer US over Pakistan.

China do however 'pick side' when it comes to conflicts. China always side with peaceful resolution over war, as opposed to side with one country over another. Even with Russia and Ukraine China still prefer peaceful resolution. This has always been consistent.

This do not mean China coerce one side to accept peace against their will. This is all verbal support and being willing to act as mediator with consent of both sides. China is not forcing Iran to do anything. Ultimately is it worth to complain about? Did China abandon Russia?
Yep agree. Someone can quote me on this many many years later when things plays out. If I'm wrong, I can absolutely admit it.

No, I do not expect China to pick sides as some suggested. Both KSA and Iran will play important roles for China. Both will trade with china. Also in terms of BRI, geopolitical value against resisting US imperialism and hegemony, spread of terrorism with links to XJ separtism, dealings with organizations like OPEC, SCO and BRICS plus, latter two of which likely both will be involved in future in world of multipolarity and etc.

No, I do not expect China to follow in footsteps of US hegemonic power. Talk of China setting up bases or providing security arrangement like imperialistic power or backing KSA and Isreal over Iran and Palestine is far off imho. I massively doubt China wants to become another US in West asia. This is foolish and dangerous.

No, I do not expect China to play Iran off KSA or vice versa. China will hope to promote trade, peace and diplomacy above all else. Obviously bets off if one of them abruptly threaten the core interests of China like Taiwan or something. Some redline but thats very unlikely imo. Again, China isn't in West asia to be another US.

All in all, the China~US struggle and fight will be China utmost important and defining problem. Taiwan, SCS, economy, hi tech industry, media propaganda, financial, sanctions, internal stability, hot war, cold war etc you name it....they all fall in this issue. Everythng else pales. China will not stir up shit elsewhere and lose the big picture. I feel like some of us do not want to recognize this or for some reasons just to want to shove it aside for personal reasons. But it is what it is. It's gonna be rocky road for ethnic Chinese in US too. Including those of US citizenship. Brace yourselves. It's coming.
 
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Abominable

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Iran is learning rapidly. They're finally going to the table with Saudi Arabia.


Thanks to @ACuriousPLAFan
I said this would happen a few days ago.

If China manages to reduce American influence in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, it will only be viewed as a good thing by the Iranians.
Furthermore, sources said since there were no tangible outcomes from Iran-Saudi Arabia meetings in Baghdad, no breakthrough is expected in the talks.
Don't count on that, voyager1.
 
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