Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Global South strategic cooperation
- Thread starter Strangelove
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What china cloud make Saudis do is get out of Syria and support Bashar government
I've previously said that the US presence in the Middle East is a hindrance to a Iran-Saudi rapprochement and peace
US and Iran have long-standing grievances against each other, which go way back to when the US supported the Shah of Iran, who was overthrown because he was seen as extremely corrupt, non-religious and out of touch by the people. This casts a shadow over everything.
But in recent years, US interest in the Middle East has waned as:
1. The US no longer imports oil from the Middle East
2. The US is pivoting from the Middle East to China
3. The US wants to forget about the endless and inconclusive wars in the Middle East
Without US attention and support, this has helped the Saudis realise that its enmity with Iran is counter-productive, as neither Saudi nor Iran are big enough to dominate each other. And yes, the Iranians will be calmer if US influence and presence is reduced in the Middle East.
Just to summarise, a US withdrawal from the Middle East and an increased Chinese presence in the Middle East will reduce tensions and promote peaceful economic development. This is a good thing for Iran, Saudi, the wider Middle East and indeed the world.
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There's more to it than US influence.
Iran is a revolutionary country which tried to export the revolution to its neighbours, similar to how France, the Soviet Union or China also tried to export their revolutions. But now the revolutionary generation is mostly dead or very old. Khamenei will die in the next few years.
Saudi Arabia is a monarchy and the ruling family's biggest threat is political Islam, a system Iran represents. An islamic revolution and the Muslim brotherhood is what they're afraid of, as was obvious when the Muslim brotherhood briefly took power in Egypt.
Today, the young generation in Iran isn't interested in political Islam and Saudi Arabia has stopped bombing Shias in Yemen and Syria isn't fighting against Sunni rebels anymore. So the opportunity for peace and cooperation is better than ever. Can China broker an agreement between the Saudis and Iran? I really wish they could, but China has shown little interest in shaping the world in the last 40 years
In a perfect world, China wouldn't just sign investment and trade agreements with various countries. The region needs a peace conference for Yemen. Maybe return to the previous state of two countries or high levels of autonomy. The region also needs a rescue program for Iraq. If China wants to be a leader in the world, it's not enough to do deals with the most stable countries. You also need to guide weaker or failed states back to prosperity. What better advertisement for China could there be if China managed to rescue Iraq from its current chaos after the West destroyed the country?
Agreed. Not just political Islam, but also socialist Arab populism like we saw with Saddam and Gaddafi.
I don't think it's true that Iranians aren't interested in revolution anymore. That's the impression given by dissidents who live outside Iran and western NGOs.
The clerics have a lot of support from the common people. The Basiji is the largest paramilitary force in the Middle East, and it's 100% volunteer.
While Iran is a very divided country by religious beliefs as well as ethnicity I don't see the clerics going any time soon.
Both Russia and China are doing a lot to bring two two major camps in the middle east together.
It would definitely be in China's interest to broker an agreement between Iran and the Saudi. Whether China can/will do this is another question yes. But everyone in the region and the world would benefit from Iran and Saudi burying their differences, with the exception of the US right wing who hold a grudge.
Agreed
But simply providing a stable and war free environment does wonders for business and economic growth. Then hopefully they can pull themselves up
Looks like relationship between china and south Africa is going pretty well. Maybe china can sell them some weapons also.
Doesn't SA have a solid arms industry themselves? Atleast in land domain, and I dont know if SA can afford/need JF-17 or export Type 052.
Saudis also has beef with turkey too.